The 2024 Longshot Thread

Maxbet said:
West Tip (better than sex) 1986
Seagram 1991
Rough Quest 1995

All won the Ultima!
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Rough Quest finished 2nd to Imperial Call in the GC the year he won the Nash. Won the Ultima the year before I think


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Beef or Salmon said:
Just had a proper look at the Brown Advisory and reckon it could end up a 6 or 7 runner field and as such Sandor Clegane who finished only just over a length behind Stay Away Fay in last years Albert Bartlett, 20/1 looks a cracking bet.
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Only 6 go to post, very happy with this position.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Still in it, with Patrick riding.
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Willie today Sporting Life

"Patrick rides and this is a horse with a lot of ability. He needs a longer trip but unfortunately I hadn’t got him entered in the Baring Bingham. We’ll get a look at what he can do here but I think he looks to be one to keep an eye on for next season’s novice hurdles"
 
Anadin said:
Willie today Sporting Life

"Patrick rides and this is a horse with a lot of ability. He needs a longer trip but unfortunately I hadn’t got him entered in the Baring Bingham. We’ll get a look at what he can do here but I think he looks to be one to keep an eye on for next season’s novice hurdles"
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That's quite cryptic.

Sounds like he's saying it won't be winning (deliberately) and can get into some big handicaps off a lowish mark.
 
Coral Cup - Lombron 40/1, 6 places - I see Jigoro is 14/1 for the race but Lombron was 5/2 compared to his 4/1 at levels in the Moscow Flyer (won by Mystical Power). Lombron gets 8lbs now. I'm speculating, but I imagine the stable more than expected MP to win that day so why not just give Lombron a wee doddle round at the back to get him ready for a more suitable target? Obviously the stable also has the hotpot in Sa Majesté but sometimes things don't go to plan, and would anyone be surprised if Mullins had more than one in the first six? And what if MP wins the Supreme? Will that be read as a positive for Jigoro? Anyway, I just think 40s is too big and I've backed it like it was 14/1.
 
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Boodles An Bradan Feasa.
Has a Festival pedigree to die for, dam half sister to Kalashnikov, grand dam sister to Kicking King and Four Commanders .
Good course form and appears over priced if you excuse his Musselburgh run.
One for the ew docket with Mistergif ( hosed up in Limerick race State Man won ),
Minella Crooner ( he made up some ground at Tramore Jan1 ) and Tellmesomethinggirl ( real unlucky 2 years ago , nice run behind Zarak The Brave lately)
It will do me at any rate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
NH Chase - Mr Vango 33/1 NRNB - this won the race in which Sidi Ismael ran recently so I ended up watching it, thought afterwards that I should check how the handicapper reacted and keep an eye out for it. Then, of course, it completely slipped my mind. Until last night when I ran off the five-day cards and noticed it in this race. The RP card last night has it on its old OR (120) but it went up to 132 for the win. I think that new OR is extremely conservative. It's maybe worth watching that race again. Yes, it was a very modest event for very modest horses over not far off four miles in an absolute bog but Mr Vango went out in front and just ent further and further clear. The ones that tried to go with it folded early and the runner-up, which struggled to go the early pace, was the one to come through eventually for second place. That was probably as close as it ever could have got. I reckon it probably wasn't too far off , if off at all, its OR. Taking that positive spin, the winner has beaten its OR by 60 lengths. That's about 30lbs at the trip in the conditions. And it won without coming off the bit. To me, it's entirely possible it ran to about 150 that day. To be honest, I'd have thought an entry in the Kim Muir would have been interesting enough but this is its only entry and it will attract a bit of money once the ITV team roll out the Bradstock gushbucket. I don't think it's as far behind the rest of the field as the odds imply and it is totally bombproof in terms of stamina requirements.
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11/1 tops this morning and generally single-figures. I think Paul Kealy has tipped it.
 
I know it seems foolish to go against W.Mullins and Dan Skelton in the county hurdle but I can't help doing an outsider.
Mr Freedom 66/1.
Last year in the Fred winter the saddle slipped after the first hurdle and got bumped and Dunne lost his irons as he was coming with a good looking run.
Won last time which should get him in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
NH Chase - Mr Vango 33/1 NRNB - this won the race in which Sidi Ismael ran recently so I ended up watching it, thought afterwards that I should check how the handicapper reacted and keep an eye out for it. Then, of course, it completely slipped my mind. Until last night when I ran off the five-day cards and noticed it in this race. The RP card last night has it on its old OR (120) but it went up to 132 for the win. I think that new OR is extremely conservative. It's maybe worth watching that race again. Yes, it was a very modest event for very modest horses over not far off four miles in an absolute bog but Mr Vango went out in front and just ent further and further clear. The ones that tried to go with it folded early and the runner-up, which struggled to go the early pace, was the one to come through eventually for second place. That was probably as close as it ever could have got. I reckon it probably wasn't too far off , if off at all, its OR. Taking that positive spin, the winner has beaten its OR by 60 lengths. That's about 30lbs at the trip in the conditions. And it won without coming off the bit. To me, it's entirely possible it ran to about 150 that day. To be honest, I'd have thought an entry in the Kim Muir would have been interesting enough but this is its only entry and it will attract a bit of money once the ITV team roll out the Bradstock gushbucket. I don't think it's as far behind the rest of the field as the odds imply and it is totally bombproof in terms of stamina requirements.
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Certainly well ahead of the final market and the third place return is welcome. Ran as I'd hoped, out in front and jumping well. It was just too big a step up in class but it has finished in front of rivals that were rated higher.

It will be interesting to see where they go with the winner next season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coral Cup - Lombron 40/1, 6 places - I see Jigoro is 14/1 for the race but Lombron was 5/2 compared to his 4/1 at levels in the Moscow Flyer (won by Mystical Power). Lombron gets 8lbs now. I'm speculating, but I imagine the stable more than expected MP to win that day so why not just give Lombron a wee doddle round at the back to get him ready for a more suitable target? Obviously the stable also has the hotpot in Sa Majesté but sometimes things don't go to plan, and would anyone be surprised if Mullins had more than one in the first six? And what if MP wins the Supreme? Will that be read as a positive for Jigoro? Anyway, I just think 40s is too big and I've backed it like it was 14/1.
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No strength at all behind this one and out to 66s. Maybe they have another target in mind. Still, I'll go in again nearer the off if it continues to drift, maybe on the exchange, maybe on the Tote.

Two others in this race qualify for the thread:

Guard Your Dreams, 25/1, which I believe Outsider and yorick have on their radar (always an encouragement), and Western Fold 33/1. Again, I'm biding my time and hoping for a drift.
 
Grand Annual - Gemirande, 40/1 - I haven't backed it yet because it's on the drift so it's a case of wait and see if it goes very long on the exchange or Tote but I do plan to get on at some point.
 
I've also taken Boothill and Funambule Sivola at long odds in the three-places market. I'm kind of hoping one of the shorties will blow out.

With Captain Guinness already onside at 20/1 (3 places) ante-post and 10/1 w/o the fav I really don't mind if El Fab runs away with it. I think it's a much better race than the ORs of the favs suggest.
 
After what occurred yesterday, best of luck to all of us who like a stab in the dark on a longshot!

This is either the festival of divine inspiration for me, or some seriously misguided flutters on big prices the next couple of days.

I did an each way goliath last night for fun, the shortest price one being So Fureur in the 4.50, who is a 6s chance. Says a lot.....

I still think Franciscan Rock would be a lot shorter if he was trained by a Willie Mullins in the Coral.

At his current price a place would more than suffice, and placing is something he's done an awful lot of in his career thus far. Fingers crossed.

Le Patron in the Turners another one tomorrow, where it could all be in my head, but the cut in the ground will be right up his street. 50's simply too big. I might need one, two, or three to underperform. Gary Moore is the right trainer to have on board in this instance though.
 
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If you look at the 2022 Relkeel, GuardYourDreams was the only one under the cosh three out, and remained so. The evidence suggests easily could have folded from the second last, but kept fighting and at the line was finishing as well as anything.

Suggests guts to me along with the bit of class needed to do anything in this race today. Maybe a question mark over the quality of that race, though I would expect half that field to be competitive in this race if they were running.

The other question I have is...was that race slowish run? In which case you might be worried he was having to fight harder than anything else from 3 out just to hold a position, and will likely have to fight a hell of a lot harder to do something similar today.

But...another couple of years on Guard's back. Might be he's that bit stronger now.

I think I remember NTD saying before Wincanton that it was more a Chelltenham prep, and they thought 2 miles would be nowhere near far enough.

He'll do for me at the prices, to run a first 6.
 
Marb said:
After what occurred yesterday, best of luck to all of us who like a stab in the dark on a longshot!

This is either the festival of divine inspiration for me, or some seriously misguided flutters on big prices the next couple of days.

I did an each way goliath last night for fun, the shortest price one being So Fureur in the 4.50, who is a 6s chance. Says a lot.....

I still think Franciscan Rock would be a lot shorter if he was trained by a Willie Mullins in the Coral.

At his current price a place would more than suffice, and placing is something he's done an awful lot of in his career thus far. Fingers crossed.

Le Patron in the Turners another one tomorrow, where it could all be in my head, but the cut in the ground will be right up his street. 50's simply too big. I might need one, two, or three to underperform. Gary Moore is the right trainer to have on board in this instance though.
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Happy with Franciscan.

He ran his guts out.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
With Captain Guinness already onside at 20/1 (3 places) ante-post and 10/1 w/o the fav I really don't mind if El Fab runs away with it. I think it's a much better race than the ORs of the favs suggest.
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Huge slices of luck on my side but it goes some way towards making up for some bad luck along the way.
 
Must be the first time I haven’t backed Captain Guinness! Always think back to how unlucky he was to have been brought down in the Supreme all those years ago. I hated it when they interviewed Edwardstones lass before the race; it always seems to bring bad luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've also taken Boothill and Funambule Sivola at long odds in the three-places market. I'm kind of hoping one of the shorties will blow out.
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Fair play to Bet365, they paid me out on my 66/1 ew Funambule Sivola for three places. I couldn't have told you he'd finished third. I'd thought with Boothill coming out they'd have shifted the goalposts.

Another tidy wee return :)
 
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