The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I was all over Galvin like a rash when he won the NHC in 2021 and he was only 10/3 for APT's Gold Cup when rated 168 so he must have a shout and a half off 155. I do think he's the most likely winner and have gone in heavily at 25/1 NRNB with Hills who deserve a wee shout for going with the concession this early.
Click to expand...

Just bumping this in response to the recent posts on the GN thread.
 
Lincoln - Migration 20/1, BOG, 6 places - only one stall lower than when storming through from last place to win going away last year and is only 4lbs higher. He had more than 4lbs in hand that day and the runner-up doesn't go. Similar ground and likely similarly fast pace so I'm hopeful of a repeat. I plan to go in again nearer the off at SP with Sky who are going 7 places but only 16s at the moment. There's no blue about him anywhere at oddschecker so I'm hoping for a further drift.

(And a wee ew double with Galvin 20/1 for the GN is looking at 440/1 and 24/1 for the place double.)
 
Last edited:
Outsider said:
MR PROFESSOR. 50/1 LINCOLN.poor draw to overcome and had a 7lb claimer on last time he won so is basically 12 lb higher. Stays 1m2f and won on soft.
Click to expand...

:adore::adore::adore:


What a shout, Outsider!!

(One to watch for the future: Navagio - nothing went right for it.)
 
Last edited:
Well done Outsider, I couldn't have landed on that in a month of Sundays! Went for Navagio, might be a marker for James Horton's season after last year's disaster.
 
Well done Outsider you got some balls backing that.

I just watched a 16k race at Wolverhampton over 6f the 2 favourites never in the race and the outsider of the field available at 30 on the machine pissed up

Let that be a warning to you guys.........learn to place lay these flat horses because if you don't you will lose your balls
 
Tanlic said:
And in the very next flat race what happened? Fav 1.18 to be placed trailed in miles behind:lol: 18 pounds gets you 100:D
Click to expand...

Which is why I don't bother with shite races, especially the AW variety.

Actually, I recall many years ago saying to the brother that AW weather (Flat and NH) was the way forward but UK racing totally messed up a glorious opportunity by focusing on the lower levels of ability.

How long ago did AW start? At the time, my argument with the brother was that if you have a card with a minimum of £20k per race - probably about £50k at today's values - and one race worth £50k (£125k say) you'd get the better horses competing and straighter racing.

I suppose the same could be said of turf racing in general but the bookies run racing in this country and it will never happen now.

I can accept that I was wrong about AW jumps racing as it started. The surface, I accept, wasn't appropriate for NH racing but I can't believe they can't have AW NH racing as we approach the quarter-way point of the 21st Century. After all, Willie Mullins has the 'deep sand' gallops. Why can't a NH course (or several) have such a track?
 
Last edited:
A fabulous pick yesterday, well done Outsider.

Looking forward to keeping an eye on your selections this flat season.
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
Wolverhampton

6.00 Smart Champion has just turned nine years of age. He has ran 36 times in his career, so averaging out at about 5 runs per year, as he's been in training for about 7 years. He hasn't been overaced by any means, and is a horse who placed in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot, while also placing at Glorious Goodwood in 2020. He's scored twice on the all weather, so can handle the conditions, and now on this career low mark of 68, I hope the horse can out run odds of 25/1 or thereabouts, and Hayley Turner can come with a thundering late run to land the spoils. Maybe I aiming for the stars, so to speak, and might end up somewhere near the clouds, and if he ran well and got placed that would at least justify my belief he is well handicapped. Let's see.
Click to expand...

He races again tomorrow in Kempton's 8:00, now further down the handicap. One last go on him tomorrow, (promise).
 
Musselburgh 3.35: A sporting interest on Ravenscraig Castle here. I remember his third in the Melrose at York, coming up to three years ago, like it was yesterday. Ravens hasn't got his head in front for over two years. He did finish in second place four times last season, actually ending 2023 four pounds higher at the end of the season, than he did at the start. Perhaps he'll handle the heavy ground though. I have Iain Jardine as the type of fellow to be able to rejuvenate a horse like Ravenscraig Castle. It's a hot enough race mind you, but maybe this tells it's own story, as to whether connections think he retains some of his early promise. Either this, or he's there for another day out, and will drop to class four's and five's soon enough. At 20s + I'll have a small each way to find out tomorrow. I think he's worth a shout on a thread like this.
 
Last edited:
Hope he goes well for you, Marb.

Faylaq is looking a fairly tasty 25s for this. Already run well over too short in his season opener a couple of weeks ago - indicating the ability is still there - and has put in some eye-catching runs in hot races without winning over the last couple of years. Amy Waugh riding means Faylaq gets upwards of a stone from the 'main' protagonists. I wouldn't have been surprised to see low double figure odds, so 25s and hopefully a drift to 33 will do for me.

The big worry is that November Handicap run on heavy where he seemed to run like a drain. But I still think 1 mile 4 to 1 mile 6 on soft is his best chance of a win. It'll come this year. If he can run to his best, he shouldn't be far away in this.


PS Don't give up on Smart Champion. I think he's always been a grinder, maybe one of those long distance Ponty races will do the trick.
 
Last edited:
Irish National:

Daily Present 25/1, 6 places
Cool Survivor 50/1, ditto

I backed both of these at the festival (Kim Muir). Daily Present shortened up quite a bit ahead of that race so was presumably fancied but he got too involved in the over-fast pace and had nothing to offer from the home turn. It was a better performance than the bare result.

Cool Survivor also attracted some support but never figured so either he's just a donkey or is targeting something else. This, maybe? I don't know but some sickness insurance is in order.
 
HISTORY OF FASHION. 100/1. Irish National

3rd over c/d 3 races ago.might be susceptible to younger unexposed horses but 100 to one is worth a pound ew.
 
I like the one that beat History Of Fashion that day you mention Outsider, Street Value.

That was some performance given Street Value was pulled up the time before, but it got him bumped enough the make the cut for tomorrow anyway. He's been pulled up since, but hopefully he can bounce back in grand style tomorrow. I'll have to have a saver on History Of Fashion aswell.
 
Belargus 2.45 Hunt Best 22-1 in enough places easy to find

Drops down to a Class 4 for the first time since Dec 20. The yard have run him in several Class 3s and higher since, and Belargus showed a little something in his last race that suggest he's still got a race left. Conditions look OK, 3 miles on likely GS, right-handed. If he does have one race left, he won't be getting many more good opportunities than this.

NG's Aworkinprogress won well a few days back, other recent runners have bombed due either to age (getting on) or age (too inexperienced). If River Tyne runs well in the first, that will suggest the yard is in good nick.
 
Mount Ferns 1.05 Hunt 50-1 Emma Lavelle's novice has 12 to beat in this, but on paper there's a fair enough argument for ruling several out (at least at this stage of their careers).

MF was still close to the leaders up to the last 3 in his first 2m3f novice, ridden from the front by Tom Bellamy. Several in front in that Warwick race could prove to be semi-useful over the next few years. Settled at the back in his second race at Exeter, it had the look and feel of a possible educational run.

Beaten by Authorized Speed in a bumper earlier in career, putting in a good run that suggested some level of ability.

By Mount Nelson, every chance Ferny will turn out to be better than he's looked so far, and with Emma Lavelle's reasonable record with novices, this could be the race to show something.

Ideally a drift to 66-1 or higher will be desirable, but 50s with hopefully somewhere in the 80s or higher Betfair is worth a try for limited stakes.

I have a suspicion Locked On might turn out to be OK further on (200-1 here), by Scorpion it's likely his first two bumper runs on heavy wouldn't have suited, and better ground might see him do better in time once more experienced over hurdles.
 
Back
Top