World Cup Group A

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
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Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
This group looks very interesting. I am looking forward to seeing the opener on Thursday night, although it is a pity that Mandzukic is suspended. I would fancy Croatia to get a draw if he had been fit.

It is hard to see past Brazil to win the group, but I wonder who will chase them home.

Mexico look particularly weak, so for me it is between Croatia and Cameroon. Mandzukic, Modric, Rakitic and Kovacic would get into most teams. But a lot of the fancy commentators are warning that Cameroon are one of the better teams from Africa, and I do like Mbia and

Here is what I am thinking:

Brazil vs. Croatia under 2.5 goals 11/10 2pts.
Mexico to finish bottom 3/1 2pts.
Brazil - Croatia forecast 7/4 1pt.
 
I like all of them.

I think Brazil will crumble under pressure, and am hoping for something like:

Low-scoring win, or draw, with Croatia. Nervous performance, scrape a result, people out it down to first game of tournament and nerves.
Easier, though unconvincing, victories against Cameroon and Mexico.
Have a decent bet on Chile, or a smaller one on Netherlands, to beat them in the second round at inflated odds as the mediocrity of the Brazil side hasn't been seen by wider public due to acceptable results.

I am not sure why Mexico are 3s to finish last, good spot.

For me, Croatia are clear second best in the group (albeit from a relatively ignorant position on the other 2 teams), so I would have had Mehico less than 2s to finish last.

edited to say: would you think any value in a Croatia-Brazil forecast?
 
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Yeah, to borrow an expression from my company, we're "on the same page" in general. However, I do think you're under-estimating Brazil . They're no world beaters, but their squad is arguably in the top 3 this summer.

I am not sure if Croatia are that good really.
 
Croatia's midfield is glorious on fhe ball, but id worry about their ability to defend if they go with the three creators. The defence isn't great and they've got a real issue at left back due to injuries.
 
Neymar and Oscar look like a pair of fannies, afraid of getting tackled, big men for the small occasion.
 
Brazil were 4.0 to lay for 20k on Matchbook pregame. They are now 4.1. Amazing scenes!
 
as an antepost backer of them winning the lot at 4/1 i was deeply unimpressed with brazil tonight. did not deserve to win that game.
 
They did ok, first game and the pressure. Oscar played the best for me and this side could improve rapidly. Croatia are no mugs.
Imagine if Italy were judged on their first game performances at tournaments!!
 
That penalty was a joke as was the Croatian Keeper, talk about chocolate wrists!
Only 1 of Brazilians back 4 can actually defend!
 
Being the home side is such a big advantage laying Brazil could be a dangerous game. The first game in every World Cup I can remember is a let down 9 times out of 10.

My 2 back to lays are Spain and Switzerland.

Backing some of these teams to qualify is a bit of a scam. Betfair odds are much better and backing them to win then laying them back could be a better way to go........I'm hoping

Spain for example are 1/7 with some books to qualify but they are 7.2 to win outright.

A good performance in their group and they be quoted as low as 4.00 jt favs. A lay back at that price and you have 3 times the profit had you backed them at 1.17.........at 6.00 you'd be the same had you backed them at 1.17 to qualify

I've taken a chance with Switzerland at 180 if they can beat or draw with Equador they have a great chance to qualify. They have a first class coach and if they do qualify depending who their next opponents turn out to be they could be a decent earner.

Even if they drop to only 50 100 quid at 180 you can get out with 260 quid and at 40 you can green up at 355 profit.......with luck they could go as low as 33.

It's a lot better than backing them at 4/6 to qualify which I imagine applies to a lot of teams

If they do get through I'd be happy to stake out double my stake and let the rest run for a game or 2.
 
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Spain for example are 1/7 with some books to qualify but they are 7.2 to win outright.

A good performance in their group and they be quoted as low as 4.00 jt favs. A lay back at that price and you have 3 times the profit had you backed them at 1.17.........at 6.00 you'd be the same had you backed them at 1.17 to qualify
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But the qualify price is made up of the combined odds to win and to come second in the Group. Should they come second, they're playing Brazil. And they would not be a shorter price than they are now in that instance.
 
Not a bad bet. Mexico struggled through qualifying. I didn't get home early enough to have a bet so I'm leaving it until the Spain v Holland game later.
 
Bar the Bull said:
But the qualify price is made up of the combined odds to win and to come second in the Group. Should they come second, they're playing Brazil. And they would not be a shorter price than they are now in that instance.
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They are already 110 after todays win.

You could lay them at 120 and walk away with 50 quid profit right now had you had 100 quid on at 180 when I suggested it.:p
 
This match has now bored me so much , I intend to spend the rest of the second half laying brazil as outright winners. Already I have surpassed my biggest ever outlay which was on good old Kasbah Bliss (WH2009)
 
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