The 2024 Longshot Thread
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Desert Orchid
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Geremia wasn't off an inch. Wonder what the target is. The Braveheart at Hamilton??
Desert Orchid
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1000G - Darnation 33/1, 4 places, BOG - joint fourth top on ORs so her price looks wrong. And Rolica at 40/1.
Stablemate of the favourite but Lee wouldn't have had the option of riding that one. She's rated to beat some of those sitting at less than 10/1. The prices in the BO [Best Odds] column are as they were when I compiled the table yesterday.
Jane Chapple-Hyam's outsiders in top races often outrun their odds and Hollie Doyle looks a good booking so I'm having a fun bet on Rolica (which also happens to be running in the colours of the great Nijinsky - what's not to like?)
Horse | Trainer | Jockey | OR | RPR | BO |
Fallen Angel | K R Burke | D Tudhope | 116 | 120 | 10/3 |
Ramatuelle | C Head | A Lemaitre | 114 | 122 | 8/1 |
Ylang Ylang | A P O'Brien | Ryan Moore | 112 | 120 | 5/1 |
Porta Fortuna | DA O'Brien | Tom Marquand | 110 | 120 | 18/1 |
Darnation | K R Burke | Clifford Lee | 110 | 117 | 33/1 |
See The Fire | Andrew Balding | Oisin Murphy | 108 | 117 | 9/1 |
Pretty Crystal | Richard Fahey | Oisin Orr | 107 | 117 | 20/1 |
Dance Sequence | Charlie Appleby | William Buick | 106 | 116 | 11/2 |
Sacred Angel | Charlie Johnston | Jason Hart | 105 | 114 | 50/1 |
Tamfana | David Menuisier | Jamie Spencer | 104 | 119 | 66/1 |
Regal Jubilee | J&T Gosden | K Shoemark | 101 | 116 | 33/1 |
Elmalka | Roger Varian | S De Sousa | 100 | 115 | 25/1 |
Cinderella's Dream | Charlie Appleby | M Barzalona | 99 | 111 | 18/1 |
Star Music | Richard Hughes | Jim Crowley | 97 | 106 | 80/1 |
Rolica | J Chapple-Hyam | Hollie Doyle | - | 104 | 66/1 |
Star Style | Richard Hannon | Pat Dobbs | - | 104 | 16/1 |
Stablemate of the favourite but Lee wouldn't have had the option of riding that one. She's rated to beat some of those sitting at less than 10/1. The prices in the BO [Best Odds] column are as they were when I compiled the table yesterday.
Jane Chapple-Hyam's outsiders in top races often outrun their odds and Hollie Doyle looks a good booking so I'm having a fun bet on Rolica (which also happens to be running in the colours of the great Nijinsky - what's not to like?)
Desert Orchid
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Rolica definitely outran her odds but no return from her.
Desert Orchid
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Friday, Chester 2.35 - Woodstock City 20/1 - The trainer plots them up for this meeting and the horse has dropped 10lbs since coming over from France.
Desert Orchid
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Friday, Chester Cup - The Grand Visir 66/1, 5 places - plummeting down the ratings with rising age but was still able to run well in the first half of last season off marks in the mid-high 90s. He's off 89 here. An ew double with Woodstock City (1406/1, 70/1 for the place portion) strikes me as a cheap speculation.
I'll probably add one or two more by lunchtime on Friday. I have two or three in mind but there's no real money for them so I'm waiting for a drift and maybe the BOGs.
I'll probably add one or two more by lunchtime on Friday. I have two or three in mind but there's no real money for them so I'm waiting for a drift and maybe the BOGs.
Desert Orchid
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I feel a wee bit robbed there. Ran on well for third without ever looking like a trier but the NRs mean I probably won't get paid out on third place.
Held up off a ridiculously slow pace so I knew at halfway today wasn't meant to be the day but I might not get 20s next time.
chaumi
Rookie
Zealandia looks kind of overpriced at 28 and 33-1 (50s BF) in the Cup. The win over Enemy at Newcastle (2 miles) two starts back reads well to me and possibly was undone by softer ground on starts at longer distances in the past. You'd have to ignore the recent Kempton run, but was first time on that track and may not have taken to it.
Desert Orchid
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As I feared, Woodstock City has been settled as a loser.
Bookies probably did okay there, getting it down to seven runners, therefore just two places, and a 45% R4 deduction.
Bookies probably did okay there, getting it down to seven runners, therefore just two places, and a 45% R4 deduction.
Desert Orchid
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Haydock 3.15 - N'Golo 25/1, 5 places - gets to run off the same mark as when scooting up in this race two years - but only three runs - ago. Has almost certainly been trained for it again and sports first-time blinkers.
Ascot 1:30 - Appier has been plying his trade at a lower level than what he encounters today, but he has a very good strike rate, 3/12 on turf, and 4/9 on the all weather. He won four races on the bounce in 2022 after being gelded, and has picked up races here and there since. I would forget the last run, where he was too slow out the stalls and overly keen. He can run a lot better today. When he has won these lower class races in the past, he's been quite impressive, so I think there's a chance he'll handle the step up in grade just fine.
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chaumi
Rookie
Sellerna Bay in the last at Cork Bits of 50-1, 66 I think still with 365. Was 66 across the board last night.
Luke first mentioned SB on the Punchestown thread, before the Goffs Defender. Reportedly well-liked at home. Saw some shortening during the day that day, drifting out again later on. Not surprisingly, made no impact. Hard to tell if the yard really thought she might. But the fact she ran suggests the reports of some ability could be right.
This is a fillies bumper. Every chance that - if she does have some substance - she could have a lot of these in trouble. A handful stand out to me on breeding, but look more likely hurdle candidates, As does SB, but in the context of this race the biggish prices look wrong.
Luke first mentioned SB on the Punchestown thread, before the Goffs Defender. Reportedly well-liked at home. Saw some shortening during the day that day, drifting out again later on. Not surprisingly, made no impact. Hard to tell if the yard really thought she might. But the fact she ran suggests the reports of some ability could be right.
This is a fillies bumper. Every chance that - if she does have some substance - she could have a lot of these in trouble. A handful stand out to me on breeding, but look more likely hurdle candidates, As does SB, but in the context of this race the biggish prices look wrong.
Desert Orchid
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Victoria Cup
Bless Him 33/1, 5 places - top on my figures. Weak in the market (18s when I did the race on Thursday) but goes well over this CD and 4lbs lower than when short-headed by Fresh in the International two years ago. Not much went right for him last year but I'm prepared to believe hasn't really gone downhill yet.
Rhoscolyn 22/1, 6 places - Outsider has made the case and my figures concur.
Carrytheone 33/1, 6 places - rated within a couple of pounds of the average winner of this and 2lbs off the top on RPRs so could get in the frame and Stott looks a positive booking for one at such a nice price.
Edit - I see N'Golo is out to 50s and seemingly friendless. Hasn't stopped me taking the ew doubles with the three outsiders in the VC, though.
Nothing ventured etc etc.
Bless Him 33/1, 5 places - top on my figures. Weak in the market (18s when I did the race on Thursday) but goes well over this CD and 4lbs lower than when short-headed by Fresh in the International two years ago. Not much went right for him last year but I'm prepared to believe hasn't really gone downhill yet.
Rhoscolyn 22/1, 6 places - Outsider has made the case and my figures concur.
Carrytheone 33/1, 6 places - rated within a couple of pounds of the average winner of this and 2lbs off the top on RPRs so could get in the frame and Stott looks a positive booking for one at such a nice price.
Edit - I see N'Golo is out to 50s and seemingly friendless. Hasn't stopped me taking the ew doubles with the three outsiders in the VC, though.
Nothing ventured etc etc.
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chaumi
Rookie
Victoria Cup King's Vanity 40-1 (currently 70 on the Exchange)
Sitting at the foot of the weights, anyone looking for the Group racer in a field of handicappers (barring one or two that might be up to Group 3, but are priced accordingly and unbetable *unbetable not unbeatable), could be forgiven for looking at the bloodline and thinking it's not impossible this could be the one. Read it and weep.
Completely unexposed on grass. Could be anything. Although it's perhaps notable that he wasn't mentioned in a recent stable tour. But sometimes trainers do that.
Balding did us a favour recently with Desert Cop at a similarish price (at least early on). Can lightning strike twice??
Sitting at the foot of the weights, anyone looking for the Group racer in a field of handicappers (barring one or two that might be up to Group 3, but are priced accordingly and unbetable *unbetable not unbeatable), could be forgiven for looking at the bloodline and thinking it's not impossible this could be the one. Read it and weep.
Completely unexposed on grass. Could be anything. Although it's perhaps notable that he wasn't mentioned in a recent stable tour. But sometimes trainers do that.
Balding did us a favour recently with Desert Cop at a similarish price (at least early on). Can lightning strike twice??
Desert Orchid
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Just got round to watching the replay.
Ran a cracker. Thought it was going to win at one point.
These were my top eight ratings so nice that they're doing well at this stage of the season. the BO column is the best odds as they were at the time of compilation (Thursday afternoon).
Horse | MON 123+ | Notes | BO |
Bless Him | 127 | ? | 18/1 |
The Wizard Of Eye | 126 | ? e y | 14/1 |
Hickory | 125 | 11/1 | |
Jumby | 123 | e | 12/1 |
Londoner | 123 | t y d | 66/1 |
Pearle d'Or | 123 | p | 10/1 |
Carrytheone | 121 | ? | 33/1 |
Mostabshir | 121 | p AP | 8/1 |
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chaumi
Rookie
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Mascapone 6.30 Newcastle.
Didn't appear as a 3yo but he was on my tracker all last year as he impressed me in a back end nursery in 2022. Only small stakes as he's been off so long but he could be one for the notebook going forward.
Didn't appear as a 3yo but he was on my tracker all last year as he impressed me in a back end nursery in 2022. Only small stakes as he's been off so long but he could be one for the notebook going forward.
chaumi
Rookie
Been on a long drive and just got in and watched it, so aftertiming. A good thing in the circumstances. Today was the day, except one of Paul Midgley's sprinters went and spoiled the party by a neck. 33s Irish, after (for some truly inexplicable reason) opening at around 8s or 10s across the board last night (except 365 at 16s).
You could say semi-gutted. But on the bright side, it's heartening when you get vindication you're on the right track,right? Only a matter of time till the next one goes in
But mid 50s on Irish D on the exchange has gone for some time :-(
Desert Orchid
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Wednesday, York 2.15 - Saratoga Gold 33/1, 4 places - rated 97 last summer but gets in here off 88 following an apparent loss of form. Has since changed stables and appeared to me to be out for some fresh air on his seasonal reappearance last time. If he isn't gone at the game and that run was about tightening him up then he could have more than a squeak off this mark.
Wednesday, York 2.45 - Hyperfocus 33/1, 6 places - 3lbs lower than when beaten only a length on the wrong side in the valuable Coral race over CD with a few of the shorter-priced opponents in this field behind. Fast ground is of some concern but rain is reportedly forecast so I'm happy to take the risk.
The ew double is 1155/1 for the win portion. If my luck's in that could get me away for a wee holiday somewhere nice.
Wednesday, York 2.45 - Hyperfocus 33/1, 6 places - 3lbs lower than when beaten only a length on the wrong side in the valuable Coral race over CD with a few of the shorter-priced opponents in this field behind. Fast ground is of some concern but rain is reportedly forecast so I'm happy to take the risk.
The ew double is 1155/1 for the win portion. If my luck's in that could get me away for a wee holiday somewhere nice.
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Desert Orchid
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Totally agree. I haven't backed it yet but I will.
3.15 - I have a couple for this. One I'm looking to back in the morning with the BOG and Commanche Falls 28/1, four places, which I've taken since there appears to be money for it (or maybe someone of influence has mentioned it favourably).
Desert Orchid
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Musidora
La Pasionara 25/1, only two places though. Holds an Oaks entry - most of the field don't - so is obviously held in some regard and Beckett is brilliant with fillies. I've also taken 66/1 for Epsom. Also trained by Beckett, I've taken Classical Song for the Oaks too (25/1) in case it goes and wins tomorrow.
La Pasionara 25/1, only two places though. Holds an Oaks entry - most of the field don't - so is obviously held in some regard and Beckett is brilliant with fillies. I've also taken 66/1 for Epsom. Also trained by Beckett, I've taken Classical Song for the Oaks too (25/1) in case it goes and wins tomorrow.
Desert Orchid
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Outsider on the Dante meeting thread:
I agree about OFTG and have taken 40s, 5 places, (Hills, but no BOG). I think I had him on last year's thread when he was chinned at the line at a nice price. SG also out to 4os now after going blue in some places yesterday, which got my hopes up.
I agree about OFTG and have taken 40s, 5 places, (Hills, but no BOG). I think I had him on last year's thread when he was chinned at the line at a nice price. SG also out to 4os now after going blue in some places yesterday, which got my hopes up.
Desert Orchid
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3.15 - two outsiders are worth backing, I think:
Khaadem 20/1, 4 places, BOG
Commanche Falls 25/1, 4 places, BOG
Khaadem certainly looks overpriced and if the pace is hot a Spencer special could get him home in front. He's a G1 winner (I think the only other one is Art Power who might need it softer). Many books are going four places so that looks good value. Commanche Falls loves this place and is ‘way overpriced at 25/1. He too is worth a bet.
Khaadem 20/1, 4 places, BOG
Commanche Falls 25/1, 4 places, BOG
Khaadem certainly looks overpriced and if the pace is hot a Spencer special could get him home in front. He's a G1 winner (I think the only other one is Art Power who might need it softer). Many books are going four places so that looks good value. Commanche Falls loves this place and is ‘way overpriced at 25/1. He too is worth a bet.
chaumi
Rookie
Emotional Memories 5.40 Font Just scrapes in at 22-1 from some 33s last night (bit of 25 on 365 still)
EM showed his first real form when running close in a Utt two-and-a-half maiden at 50-1 (up in the 100s BF) last Sept. Threw it away that day with one or two tardy jumps just at the wrong time. Nearest finish and was motoring enough at the line to have me trying to remember how much was on BF 10 strides out.
Has since proved he stays further with a couple of soft ground hurdle runs at just short of 3 miles. This 3m2 on good ground should be within range, with an arguable question mark.
One of those runs she gave weight to a Dan Skelton horse on a 4-timer (who's won a Class 3 since) and led the 4-runner field there a merry dance till not quite being able to go with two of them from the last.
Seems to run well fresh and has had a small break for this hurdle after an abortive attempt chasing lto. May be significant that DJJ has had him entered left right and centre for races over the last few weeks (so many in fact I've lost count). There could be several reasons for that, ofc. One take might be he was waiting for (what he saw as) a winnable race. Equally, he might have taken a knock or he could have been waiting for good ground.
Has bled twice now - the chase and an earlier heavy ground hurdles run. Would be guesswork, but limited evidence says he's a 'fresh' runner. Might only be able to handle racing and perform well after a 5 or 6 week break plus.
Sadly, I can't rule out any of the other 4 runners. They all might have enough ability to win this. Equally I can make debatable cases why they won't. The yard have always liked EM and there's enough evidence of good runs to suggest he can make them all work for it. 22s or 25s is OK in context. Hopefully there'll be a drift later.
EM showed his first real form when running close in a Utt two-and-a-half maiden at 50-1 (up in the 100s BF) last Sept. Threw it away that day with one or two tardy jumps just at the wrong time. Nearest finish and was motoring enough at the line to have me trying to remember how much was on BF 10 strides out.
Has since proved he stays further with a couple of soft ground hurdle runs at just short of 3 miles. This 3m2 on good ground should be within range, with an arguable question mark.
One of those runs she gave weight to a Dan Skelton horse on a 4-timer (who's won a Class 3 since) and led the 4-runner field there a merry dance till not quite being able to go with two of them from the last.
Seems to run well fresh and has had a small break for this hurdle after an abortive attempt chasing lto. May be significant that DJJ has had him entered left right and centre for races over the last few weeks (so many in fact I've lost count). There could be several reasons for that, ofc. One take might be he was waiting for (what he saw as) a winnable race. Equally, he might have taken a knock or he could have been waiting for good ground.
Has bled twice now - the chase and an earlier heavy ground hurdles run. Would be guesswork, but limited evidence says he's a 'fresh' runner. Might only be able to handle racing and perform well after a 5 or 6 week break plus.
Sadly, I can't rule out any of the other 4 runners. They all might have enough ability to win this. Equally I can make debatable cases why they won't. The yard have always liked EM and there's enough evidence of good runs to suggest he can make them all work for it. 22s or 25s is OK in context. Hopefully there'll be a drift later.
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