The 2024 Longshot Thread

I'm going against Maxxum tomorrow 635 P with its stablemate WILL DO 33/1
When maxxum won will do was going well until a poor jump 2 out knocked him back
He's since finished behind maxxum again but weakened on heavy.
13lb pull for that run when maxxum won must give him a chance especially if its good to soft.
 
I'm liking the look of Sequestered at 40-1 generally, 50 B3. A couple of mistakes at Leop in Maxxum's race possibly stopped him getting closer there. RP says nearest finish, but that seems slightly over-generous to my eye, difficult to see because he was out of shot till the line. Seemed to finish fresh-looking, though. Perhaps ridden too patiently, came from near the back from around 2 out. Might have been too soft in the Martin Pipe and this 3 miles on better ground could be just right given a clear round. If they go hard, I'm hoping the Malinas blood will help him finish strongly.
 
chaumi said:
I'm liking the look of Sequestered at 40-1 generally, 50 B3. A couple of mistakes at Leop in Maxxum's race possibly stopped him getting closer there. RP says nearest finish, but that seems slightly over-generous to my eye, difficult to see because he was out of shot till the line. Seemed to finish fresh-looking, though. Perhaps ridden too patiently, came from near the back from around 2 out. Might have been too soft in the Martin Pipe and this 3 miles on better ground could be just right given a clear round. If they go hard, I'm hoping the Malinas blood will help him finish strongly.
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Yes, an interesting one Chaumi.
Watching that Maxuum race was informative, wasn't it. Firstly, you say 'came from the back' but we should add that he was held up in last place all the way round and it was only between the last 3rd and 2nd last that he began to improve, and quite smoothly, too. He came under quite some pressure approaching the last, where a mistake didn't help his cause. In response to your querying if he was 'nearest at finish', I would say he was no closer to the winner passing the post than he was jumping the last but, at the same time, that was only the second race he'd had all year and I'm not sure he was fully wound up for it.

Re the Martin Pipe I'd say that distance was too short and the breeding suggests that back to 3m is better. Yes, the 40/1 on offer with 365 six places looks tempting, doesn't it.
 
Agreed, Yorick. Evidence suggests it was a deliberate 'out the back' run, with the seeming intention to try and pick them off at the end. I guess we do have to consider the (I would say outside) possibility it was a 'don't necessarily want to win' run, too.

Shortened a little in the last couple of hours. But took some money at the bigger prices on the Exchange on the morning of the MP, too, before drifting out a bit later on.

I do suspect connections believe he's well up to winning this. Just will 20 odd other runners agree?!
 
chaumi said:
Agreed, Yorick. Evidence suggests it was a deliberate 'out the back' run, with the seeming intention to try and pick them off at the end. I guess we do have to consider the (I would say outside) possibility it was a 'don't necessarily want to win' run, too.

Shortened a little in the last couple of hours. But took some money at the bigger prices on the Exchange on the morning of the MP, too, before drifting out a bit later on.

I do suspect connections believe he's well up to winning this. Just will 20 odd other runners agree?!
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I would say inside. Could see today being the target. As You say, mind, it's probably the target of many others, too.
 
Going to stick up REBEL GOLD 80/1 .4.15 .p.this drops in grade,also put up a cracking run in its last race,also really like the claimer on board today.5 places on offer cracking e.way bet.
 
2.42 Fair Isle Sue 40/1 Is blue on oddschecker so hoping it might get placed! Trained by someone I know but haven’t spoken to him recently. Darn it. Now drifting out again and only 7 runners….(well, she didn’t disgrace herself: think they might have a bit of fun with that one)
 
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Only a matter of time till Declan finds the key with his Irish Dancer 3.17 Red. In a little to 33 in the last few minutes (60 BF). Has done nothing yet, so should be bigger really. Not sure it's going to be over 5f, but looks a weak enough race.

Edit Awful, beat after 2 furlongs. Another day!
 
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Just had to put 5 pence on Mount Frisco…fortune favours the brave and all that! I mean, he’s only got three to beat!
 
Outsider said:
I'm going against Maxxum tomorrow 635 P with its stablemate WILL DO 33/1
When maxxum won will do was going well until a poor jump 2 out knocked him back
He's since finished behind maxxum again but weakened on heavy.
13lb pull for that run when maxxum won must give him a chance especially if its good to soft.
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4th but I'm gutted.i was sure I'd backed maxxum as well but I can't find it.
 
Coup De Pinceau 20/1 7.30 Cheltenham tomorrow.
Won this race two years ago and appears to be holding his form well. Will be staying on when many have cried enough.
Good Luck if you play 🤞
 
A few longshots I fancy (and have backed) today:

NWM 1.45 - Desert Cop 33/1, 5 places, BOG - owes me so has to carry some sickness insurance. He looked really set to go places early last season but the wheels fell off. He might be one of those that disappoints at three before returning to form the following season and the booking of Murphy catches the eye. I can’t let 33s go unbacked.

NWM 4.10 - Geremia 20/1 - no longer qualifies for the thread but I took the price last night. 5lbs clear on my figures so the 20s were probably always wrong. Currently 10s tops, so it seems others realise it's well in [on its best form].

THSK 2.40 - Cruyff Turn 33/1, 5 places, BOG - Deep down I suspect today isn't the day and that maybe the Dante meeting will be where he hits form and he's only backed as a saver to small stakes but his OR peaked at 100 the season before last and he won off 91 last summer. He's off 90 today but, as I say, I think something like the Hambleton, if he makes the cut, could be the early season aim so I have no strong expectations today.
 
Ha we have similar thoughts, DO. The only one I left alone out of the three when placing bets yesterday was Geremia. Clearly has ability and we've been patiently waiting to see it properly. So why has he left Goldie for Ian Jardine? Unless it was an 'owner decision' move (looks like same owner according to RP - should have noticed that when he was a proper price! :-( ).

CT, in a recent stable tour Easterby says he's in good nick, but as you say, this might not really be the day. **Edit, just noticed TE runs Quest For Fun, too. Looks like main hope on paper, so this could well be just a run out for Cruyff.

DC, Alan Balding stable is (perhaps an understatement) warm. I'd suggest the Newcastle win over Shouldavebeenaring puts him right into this if on a going day. I was disappointed with last summer's efforts, too. But it's interesting to note that Balding seems not to quite feel the same way.
 
Abate 1.45 Newmarket
Ran ok when 6th first time out when just behind Summerghand.
Will hopefully get a soft lead up front and with previous course and distance winning form looks a huge each way price at 25/1
Some books are paying 6 places.
Good Luck if you play 🤞
 
Desert Orchid said:
A few longshots I fancy (and have backed) today:

NWM 1.45 - Desert Cop 33/1, 5 places, BOG - owes me so has to carry some sickness insurance. He looked really set to go places early last season but the wheels fell off. He might be one of those that disappoints at three before returning to form the following season and the booking of Murphy catches the eye. I can’t let 33s go unbacked.
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:drink::drink::drink:

(Summerghand wasn't off an inch.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
A few longshots I fancy (and have backed) today:

NWM 1.45 - Desert Cop 33/1, 5 places, BOG - owes me so has to carry some sickness insurance. He looked really set to go places early last season but the wheels fell off. He might be one of those that disappoints at three before returning to form the following season and the booking of Murphy catches the eye. I can’t let 33s go unbacked.

NWM 4.10 - Geremia 20/1 - no longer qualifies for the thread but I took the price last night. 5lbs clear on my figures so the 20s were probably always wrong. Currently 10s tops, so it seems others realise it's well in [on its best form].

THSK 2.40 - Cruyff Turn 33/1, 5 places, BOG - Deep down I suspect today isn't the day and that maybe the Dante meeting will be where he hits form and he's only backed as a saver to small stakes but his OR peaked at 100 the season before last and he won off 91 last summer. He's off 90 today but, as I say, I think something like the Hambleton, if he makes the cut, could be the early season aim so I have no strong expectations today.
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That's the way to start the day,brilliant D.
And chaumi.:cheers:
 
38 on the exchange for the couple of hours before the race, or was each time I looked. Sometimes it pays to keep the faith! Well done DO.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A few longshots I fancy (and have backed) today:

NWM 1.45 - Desert Cop 33/1, 5 places, BOG - owes me so has to carry some sickness insurance. He looked really set to go places early last season but the wheels fell off. He might be one of those that disappoints at three before returning to form the following season and the booking of Murphy catches the eye. I can’t let 33s go unbacked.

NWM 4.10 - Geremia 20/1 - no longer qualifies for the thread but I took the price last night. 5lbs clear on my figures so the 20s were probably always wrong. Currently 10s tops, so it seems others realise it's well in [on its best form].

THSK 2.40 - Cruyff Turn 33/1, 5 places, BOG - Deep down I suspect today isn't the day and that maybe the Dante meeting will be where he hits form and he's only backed as a saver to small stakes but his OR peaked at 100 the season before last and he won off 91 last summer. He's off 90 today but, as I say, I think something like the Hambleton, if he makes the cut, could be the early season aim so I have no strong expectations today.
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Nice one Desert well done
Ive backed him the last twice and Deserted him today.
Sums up my luck recently
Very well spotted and thanks for sharing 👍
 
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