Saturday 27th April

yorick

Apprentice
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Mar 2, 2018
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Does it ever happen to you that you follow a horse, race after race, until you decide that enough is enough, take the horse off your list to follow and then it wins the very next race? Infuriating yet comedic simultaneously. Arthur’s Quest is one such. Prior to yesterday’s win, I decided that he is a dodge-pot and I would never back him again. Actually, I am tutoring myself not to care so much; it’s a lesson that needs heeding. After all, how many times can you throw yourself and your wallet over that cliff? It’s the same with slow starters. How many times do we have to read ‘slowly away’, ‘Slow to leave the stalls’, ‘Well in rear’ before you realise that the Betfair Sprites are trying to tell you something? Racing. Don’t you love it?

Yesterday’s musings were interesting. It looks like Aucinrisque is on the downgrade, doesn’t it? He’s not one for me, I think. Breeze Of Wind is done for the season, I reckon. Not that he ran badly but he’ll probably do well to enjoy a good summer break and refresh ready for what will be, I hope, more pleasure to come next term. Waxing Gibbous ran a fine race for Ew backers, don’t you think?. He gave the impression that he might stay further, although the breeding doesn’t exactly scream stayer.

Saturday’s racing has a competitive look about it and, like most Saturdays, should carry a health warning: devilishly difficult. I shouldn’t think I’ll be sticking my neck out too far so I’ll probably look for some fun with some bigger-priced horses for little bits just to enjoy the sport. Highlight of the day and one of the highlights of the season for me will be the 365 Handicap Chase or ‘The Whitbread’ (Sandown 3.35), as I prefer to call it (Old Duffer Alert).

Goodness me, there are quite a few I could fancy so I’ll have to be indulged for what will be almost the last hurrah of the NH season. I’ll limit myself to three small Ew bets on the following:

Annual Invictus 20/1 Ew

I know my mate Outsider won’t have any of this one since he’s convinced the horse won’t stay the trip but I’ll stick to my guns on the grounds of his appearance in the race last year. I reckon he handled these tricky Sandown fences simply brilliantly and was about to get into his challenge as the race hotted up over the railway fences last time round. Unfortunately, just as he was picking up momentum, he was just put off his stride by another leaning into him after the fence. Timing is crucial, don’t you think? Just as that happened the pace had quickened, his position went from handy to further behind than he needed to be. His goose looked cooked until the final hill when he began to fire again, alas too late. Well, he’s back again for only his fourth race this term and it looks like they’ve targeted this. What’s more he has his good ground rather than the good to soft he encountered last time. He’s one that likes to be up there and, with no Frodon to contend with this time round, I’d like to see him up in the van, as they say.

I have a sneaking fancy for Kinondo Kwetu who the trainer sends to the course to have his first ever runner at the Esher track. He’s an interesting runner who ran a nice race behind Cruz Control recently and has finished 3L 2nd to Twig, giving that one 10Lbs on the ratings and had Lounge Lizard well behind at Aintree last spring. He’ll love the ground and doesn’t look unfancied at 11/1.

I’ll be having a little Ew nibble on bottom weight Flash Collonges, too. I do like it when Nicholls has the top weight in one of these valuable handicaps; it keeps the weight down for any other of his runners. I thought FC was going just nicely, thank you, in last year’s Scottish National: getting nearer to the front after jumping with no problems at all until the nineteenth fence when he jumped well again but knuckled upon landing and lost his undercarriage, sprawled and ‘fell’. Infuriatingly unlucky, to be sure. Yes, I know he’s the rank outsider and so will seem to have no chance but I never let such things put me off. At 40/1, I might even have an Ew - extra touch: you can have eight places for 18/1 if you fancy. Or 12/1 ten places. It’s worth having a look at.

Of course, former Hennessey winner Le Milos looks set out for this and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing that.

Elsewhere I see some Ew fun to be had with the following, bearing in mind that the stakes will be negligible: no damage done when they all blow out. For what it’s worth they are:

Tacarib Bay 2.45 haydock 8/1 Ew

Editeur Du Gite Sandown 3.00 33/1 Ew

Get Shirty Ripon 6.30 14/1 Ew
3 x ew singles
Ew Trixie


Have fun.
 
"Does it ever happen to you that you follow a horse, race after race, until you decide that enough is enough, take the horse off your list to follow and then it wins the very next race?"

Tacarib Bay is that one for me (or one of them!). Somehow contrived to miss him in that Newcastle listed win. After backing him in the half dozen before and 2 of the 3 after! Hannon once thought he was a group racer. He'll win a big handicap, I'm sure. Maybe today is en route. But I'm on the fence about risking again. Especially since missing the early 15-2, no way can I risk it at 9-2.

If Pic Roc wasn't running in the 5.20, I'd be all over Bad. But it's worrying me BP runs both. In my head, the scenario is he expects (and wants) Bad to win it and Pic Roc is an afterthought. But wouldn't be surprised to see them 1 and 2. Just have no idea which way around. Both have only 3 or 4 to beat on paper, which makes Bad's double figures (last time I looked a couple of hours ago) look reasonably attractive.

Nicholls seems to think Flash Collonges could go well. But like most of us, can make cases for a fair few. Looks like one of the toughest races of the season. Rapper or Fortescue winning would leave me disconsolate, suicidal, and happy for them, in roughly equal measures. But surely not in this?!

Good luck with yours, Yorick.
 
The fact that BP has one at the top of the weights and another one lower down would incline me to the latter. He has first-time eyewear on, too
 
He is on record for believing Bad has a big race in him. But think that was before that narrow beating in the Ascot handicap couple of runs back. Never got in to the Martin Pipe, so this could well be the one
 
Backed Edwardstone ew (12/1) but only two places so was disappointed that El Fab chinned him for second.

Some brilliant rides today. The claimer at Leicester, Nico on FL & Jonbon, the Cromwell horse at Haydock.
 
Yup. Nearly predicted the win in detail but just lost out. I hate Mullins. Honest to God lol
 
Surprised to see Le Milos and Amirite appear not to stay. They can forget any notions of the Grand National with them.

Another brilliant ride on Annual Invictus and gutting for the Gordons and backers of the horse.

And another boost for the Irish National form.
 
Last bets ofthe jumps season, 5.20 Sandown.

I took 7/1 Sa Majesté this morning so not unhappy to see it shorten up a bit.

I've added Ike Sport 22/1, 5 places BOG. I haven't studied the race but it's top on RPRs so probably shouldn't be that price.
 
Last bets ofthe jumps season, 5.20 Sandown.

I took 7/1 Sa Majesté this morning so not unhappy to see it shorten up a bit.

I've added Ike Sport 22/1, 5 places BOG. I haven't studied the race but it's top on RPRs so probably shouldn't be that price.
Sa Majesté not off an inch but a lovely winner to see out the season :cool:
 
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