Plodders Stayers Hurdle.......

Q

Quixall Crossett

Amateur Rider
Joined
Apr 29, 2024
Messages
104
Location
Ings Farm
is the 6.05 at Warwick tomorrow.
No doubt they are all loved by their owners and the stable staff and i love them all as well but i very much doubt we will see any of them at Cheltenham come next March. :)
So they are having their own version of the race tomorrow and may the best plodder win. I am of the opinion that Newtonian might just plod that much quicker and longer than his rivals. I very much doubt the trainer could find a worse race for this horse and i have no doubt he is wishing that there were handicap hurdle races over seven miles. This fellow would run up a sequence. All he does is stay and although this race is probably four miles short of his best, at least the ground has come right and he has to go well.
I noticed him in the second of his bumpers two and a half years ago at Uttoxeter and thought then that there were a few races to be won with the lad over a trip. He hasnt done so yet but every dog has his day and his turn will come. He had some useful horses behind him that day at Uttoxeter including Hiway One O Three (now rated 110), Forward Plan (rated 139 and third to Cruz Control at Aintree last month), No No Tango (rated 112), Art Of Illusion (rated 122), Blenkinsop (rated 131) and Fenland Tiger (rated 120).
This fella is rated just 79 and i know that bumper form is not to be taken literally and i know it was a couple of years ago but he has at least shown that he can run a bit and maybe, just maybe, he might just outplod them.

Bet365 have opened 12's.
 
Yes, this lot could be employed as dray horses, couldn't they?

If I had to choose, it would be Sue Smith's Just Jess, a full sister to Butler's Brief, winner of six races over 3m. She's just had a wind op, which hopefully will improve her finishing effort. 5Lbs below her LWR. Having said that, I wouldn't be having a bet but had a look at the race now you've mentioned it.
 
yorick said:
Yes, this lot could be employed as dray horses, couldn't they?

If I had to choose, it would be Sue Smith's Just Jess, a full sister to Butler's Brief, winner of six races over 3m. She's just had a wind op, which hopefully will improve her finishing effort. 5Lbs below her LWR. Having said that, I wouldn't be having a bet but had a look at the race now you've mentioned it.
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:)
Yes, not the quickest bunch you will ever come across but something has to win. But although they arent the quickest, it is just my type of race. Give me a card full of races like this every day of the week.
 
Yup, I know where you're coming from. In these type of races, you just need to find something that's shown a glimmer in a or some better races. breeding helps me, too. I'm drawn to the staying blood of Pride Of Paris, Steal My sunshine, Dakota Beat, Just Jess. The last maned could stay for England on the breeding. I'd be worried for Newtonian because it looks like he prefer a R/H course. I like the time that Dakota brave ran when he won last August over 3m on the good. At 33/1, he's probably the one I'd be backing rather than Just Jess, actually, looking the form again. 33/1, no less.
 
yorick said:
Yup, I know where you're coming from. In these type of races, you just need to find something that's shown a glimmer in a or some better races. breeding helps me, too. I'm drawn to the staying blood of Pride Of Paris, Steal My sunshine, Dakota Beat, Just Jess. The last maned could stay for England on the breeding. I'd be worried for Newtonian because it looks like he prefer a R/H course. I like the time that Dakota brave ran when he won last August over 3m on the good. At 33/1, he's probably the one I'd be backing rather than Just Jess, actually, looking the form again. 33/1, no less.
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I wouldnt worry about going left handed mate, this horse can run stinkers going either way. But his best ever run, the Uttoxeter bumper run, was obviously going left handed. I note your concern though. It is one of the factors that some punters ignore when going thru the form. Horses, like ourselves, have their preferences, and which way round they are going is a big factor with many horses.

As for breeding, it is not my thing. I very rarely glance at it. I can understand the punters who bet on the flat racing taking an interest but it doesnt come into my reckoning at all. I dont think there is a breeder around who sets out to breed a very low grade staying hurdler. Its just the way it pans out.

Dakota Beat brought a smile to my face. I had a lovely touch with the horse at Bangor last summer.

Have a good day mate. Must go, the garage wont paint and reorganise itself. :D
 
I find breeding to be an enormous help with my form calculations, mate. Only one factor but invaluable.
 
Class 5 3m1f handicap hurdle attracts 14 declarations on a busy Bank Holiday Monday at a time where racing generally is struggling for field sizes - what's not to like?
 
The money (such as it is) is for Ri Na Cuirte (7/2 from 11/1) at the moment. Usurped Newtonian as favourite.
 
barjon said:
The money (such as it is) is for Ri Na Cuirte (7/2 from 11/1) at the moment. Usurped Newtonian as favourite.
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The 12/1 Newtonian was always going to be too big. The other one did catch my eye on its two Irish point runs and i have no doubt that Ben Clarke will get a race or two out of it.
 
yorick said:
I find breeding to be an enormous help with my form calculations, mate. Only one factor but invaluable.
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As i always say mate, each to their own. It wouldnt be very exciting if we all did the same thing. Whatever way suits you, and whatever way pays dividends, that the way to do it. I stick to my five factors and thats as far as i go. No pun intended :) but i have no time for sectionals, speed figures/ratings, stride data etc. Never used them, never will.
 
I must admit I've no strong view on the race, but, having had a swift butchers, my interest being piqued by the esteemed OP, I note Elfride is back to her last winning mark, a success achieved this very day last year over a not dissimilar trip on not dissimilar ground at another left-handed Midlands venue.

Plus I'm a minor Tolkien fan.
 
No one's mentioned Elfride yet, a Black Sam Bellamy. (Fortunately) the only time I backed her so far was for the Uttoxeter win, after a promising Exeter run. Run some right stinkers since, but not beyond the realms of possibility that she could come from the back and make some sort of challenge. At 33s or 40 (and 50, 60, or 70 upwards BF - which is what she should be at least) I would have had a penny, but 16s is right stingy no thank you. There's still a chance she could go off at something worthwhile on the Exchange.

Ha, this is setting up to be the race of the day!!

PS I've always thought of JJ as a soft-ground lover. Though I note there were one or two OK runs on seemingly better ground. I'm hoping she gets well beaten today ( the last 4 or 5 of Sue Smith's have run like drains anyway - the two novices unsurprisingly, but you might have expected better from Mr Mahler and/or East Street and/or Paddy). She's 8, still has a year or two left for another deeper-ground win at reasonable odds. Maybe the wind op will change things, but the balance of logic says not.


***Edit, as I was typing Ian got in first. Snap!
 
chaumi said:
No one's mentioned Elfride yet, a Black Sam Bellamy. (Fortunately) the only time I backed her so far was for the Uttoxeter win, after a promising Exeter run. Run some right stinkers since, but not beyond the realms of possibility that she could come from the back and make some sort of challenge. At 33s or 40 (and 50, 60, or 70 upwards BF - which is what she should be at least) I would have had a penny, but 16s is right stingy no thank you. There's still a chance she could go off at something worthwhile on the Exchange.

Ha, this is setting up to be the race of the day!!

PS I've always thought of JJ as a soft-ground lover. Though I note there were one or two OK runs on seemingly better ground. I'm hoping she gets well beaten today ( the last 4 or 5 of Sue Smith's have run like drains anyway - the two novices unsurprisingly, but you might have expected better from Mr Mahler and/or East Street and/or Paddy). She's 8, still has a year or two left for another deeper-ground win at reasonable odds. Maybe the wind op will change things, but the balance of logic says not.


***Edit, as I was typing Ian got in first. Snap!
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:)
It is indeed.
And i've got an even better one for Wednesday. Gonna spend a couple of hours on it later.
 
I think Lepashe would have decent chance, too, on his 2nd in a cl 3 at Donny on good ground off 109. Only had three hurdle races since (tried chasing but that never panned out) and they were all with cut in the ground this will be the first time he's had good ground over hurdles since that Donny run and he's also 9Lbs lower.

If I had a bet it would be Lepash (28/1), Dakota beat (33/1), both ew, and a little tricast - those two and Just Jess.

Can't wait to see the race now! Hehe.
 
Quixall Crossett said:
is the 6.05 at Warwick tomorrow.
No doubt they are all loved by their owners and the stable staff and i love them all as well but i very much doubt we will see any of them at Cheltenham come next March. :)
So they are having their own version of the race tomorrow and may the best plodder win. I am of the opinion that Newtonian might just plod that much quicker and longer than his rivals. I very much doubt the trainer could find a worse race for this horse and i have no doubt he is wishing that there were handicap hurdle races over seven miles. This fellow would run up a sequence. All he does is stay and although this race is probably four miles short of his best, at least the ground has come right and he has to go well.
I noticed him in the second of his bumpers two and a half years ago at Uttoxeter and thought then that there were a few races to be won with the lad over a trip. He hasnt done so yet but every dog has his day and his turn will come. He had some useful horses behind him that day at Uttoxeter including Hiway One O Three (now rated 110), Forward Plan (rated 139 and third to Cruz Control at Aintree last month), No No Tango (rated 112), Art Of Illusion (rated 122), Blenkinsop (rated 131) and Fenland Tiger (rated 120).
This fella is rated just 79 and i know that bumper form is not to be taken literally and i know it was a couple of years ago but he has at least shown that he can run a bit and maybe, just maybe, he might just outplod them.

Bet365 have opened 12's.
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Qc i said you were shrewd.
Very well done.
Thanks again for sharing🙌
Youre the man👍
 
Well in Q.c glad I didn't jinx u by putting up that when this guy puts 1 up take note.still havnt lost ur touch I see.i missed it.i had a 5 fold land today,so got caught up in following that.
 
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