Daily picks.

Southwell (AW) Result
08 Dec 2015
« 12:30 » 32RED.COM IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard
£3,881.40, £1,155.00, £577.20, £288.60
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

1 9 Yattwee (USA) 11/4 2 9-5 Saeed bin Suroor — * *
Oisin Murphy


« 2 11 4½ Always Welcome (USA) 8/11F 2 9-5 John Gosden — * *
Robert Havlin


3 7 9 Defrocked (IRE) 10/1 2 9-0 Jamie Osborne — * *
Lucy K Barry5


« 4 8 2½ Gleneve (IRE) 50/1 2 9-5 Richard Fahey — * *
Jack Garritty


« 5 4 ½ Aguerooo (IRE) 16/1 2 9-5 b1 Richard Hannon 67 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 6 1 1¾ Cacica 16/1 2 9-0 Richard Hannon — * *
Sean Levey


7 2 1 Eskandari (IRE) 10/1 2 9-5 Simon Crisford — * *
Graham Lee


« 8 12 3¾ Ring Of Art 100/1 2 9-5 Richard Fahey — * *
Tony Hamilton


« 9 10 9 Dusty Raven 100/1 2 9-5 Sir Mark Prescott Bt — * *
Luke Morris


10 14 1½ Mary Anning 100/1 2 9-0 Michael Easterby — * *
Graham Gibbons


« 11 5 4 Bigbadboy (IRE) 100/1 2 9-5 Clive Mulhall 52 * *
Barry McHugh


12 6 ½ Packing Empire (IRE) 66/1 2 9-5 Jamie Osborne — * *
Timmy Murphy


13 3 nk Carr Lane 150/1 2 9-0 Michael Easterby — * *
James Sullivan


« 14 13 13 Hannahs Lad 200/1 2 9-5 Ronald Thompson — * *
Tom Eaves


14 ran TIME 1m 28.19s (slow by 1.19s)

Yattwee

Nice debut from 2yr old out of hard spun so bred for surface,half brother to majeyda dam was a group 3 winner and obviously sire top class,this so far is the best performance by any runner seen at swell track not riding particularly quick but the 2yr old clocking up 1m28.19 very fast time compared to the rest of the races on the card.The second looks to hold the form down slightly as I think its form was weak but there is a possibility that the second may have improved for surface again pedigree for it,looks like the winner will be given something like a mark of 85.Wether he will ever be seen here again as so many of these run over in meydan,especially if dirt specialist and of course will be probably little value just an interesting horse to watch out for in the future he may well turn out to be top class handicapper on this surface or even better...
 
aye..a staggering performance by a newcomer..also the second won't be getting beat at this track in a hurry..will win any maiden here that is for sure.... speed figures:

Yattwee = 108
Always Welcome = 98
Defrocked = 72
Gleneve = 67

be interesting to see if they run always welcome here again..will be well odds on if they do
 
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interesting night at Kempton G

did you see Ballard Down last night night ?..could be another Rock Of Monaco type..only problem is it may not be able to capitalise on a kind mark as will run a maiden next time..Graceful James race..which was pretty decently run even though commentator thought otherwise...BD lost 5 lengths at the start..then lost another couple or so by being outpaced for a furlong or two..eventually finished 5th at 66/1..but still earned a speed figure of 65...you can probably add at least 10lbs to that. I'd be running it below par for a couple now and then drop into a handicap for a right touch if it were mine. They will probably let it go and get placed in a maiden though and spoil its mark..might win a maiden but if you try and win one of these hotter maidens and place you would blow its mark.

other maiden won by Towerlands Park was a good figure..96..Cape Banjo went too fast and comes out with a marked up 93..so CB will win most maidens he is likely to face next time out....winner is entered in Derby so probably won't see it again this winter

in other maiden Aclaim banged in a 89..but his hosses run well FTO so probably as good as he is

Cryptic put in a very good effort coming from last in a race that was evenly run..not over strongly run...he gets a marked up figure of 74..raced off 63 here so may get underestimated on bare result
 
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Don't really get round to looking much at Kempton replays as a lot of the races are falsely run also noticed very few decent maidens there compared to the last 4/5 seasons used to get some high quality maidens there in very decent times which turned out group winners.Would imagine the meade horse could be worth following depending on mark saw cryptic finishing,but pace wasn't great might win again I havn't really looked at the other races thoroughly yet.
 
Southwell (AW) Result
15 Dec 2015
« 1:00 » 32RED.COM FILLIES' HANDICAP
(Class 5) (0-75, 3yo+) 1m Standard
£3,881.40, £1,155.00, £577.20, £288.60
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 3 Capelita 3/1 4 9-7 Michael Appleby 73 * *
Andrew Mullen


« 2 2 6 Tiger's Home 11/4 5 8-3 h Iain Jardine 62 * *
Kyle Currie7


« 3 6 1¼ What Could She Be (IRE) 5/2F 3 9-6 p Michael Dods 73 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 4 5 3½ Caltra Colleen 20/1 3 8-10 b Gay Kelleway 63 * *
Cathy Gannon


« 5 4 38 Coolcalmcollected (IRE) 100/1 3 9-0 Andrew Crook 67 * *
Neil Farley


« 6 1 13 Noblest 3/1 3 9-5 Jamie Osborne 72 * *
Timmy Murphy


6 ran TIME 1m 40.25s (slow by 0.45s) Total SP 111%

Capelita

A 13,000 cast off from clive brittain but Michael Appleby already making his mark with the filly,probnably with last weeks 2yr old the performance of the season at swell this season.Andrew mullen looking around a furlong out was good for 10ls at least never mind 6ls and still winning in 1m40.25 he could've got nearer 1m39 if ridden out so for a filly carrying 9-7 off just a mark of 73 very impressive start on this surface.The handicapper I suspect will put her up a stone for this run,if she's very lucky maybe 12 pound that would keep her around the 85 mark and some nice winnable races at swell any higher than that then she's taking on the better horses,from memory last season the better horses weren't that great on the clock at swell so she could be a revelation and another very shrewd buy for Michael Appleby one of the best trainers around,she's very interesting this season on this surface..
 
Southwell (AW) Result
15 Dec 2015
« 3:00 » DAILY PRICE BOOSTS AT UNIBET MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 6) (3-5yo) 6f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 4 Boolass (IRE) 10/11F 3 8-7 b1 Brian Ellison 64 * *
Callum Shepherd7


« 2 3 3¼ Your Lucky Day 16/1 3 8-12 Chris Dwyer 42 * *
Josephine Gordon7


« 3 1 2 Luv U Lucky 3/1 3 9-5 Michael Appleby 62 * *
Andrew Mullen


« 4 5 2¼ Devilution (IRE) 11/2 3 8-12 Derek Shaw 46 * *
Jack Osborn7


« 5 6 20 La Paiva (FR) 25/1 4 8-11 p Scott Dixon 40 * *
Tim Clark3


« 6 2 ½ Cornton Road 10/1 3 9-5 Phil McEntee — * *
Robert Tart


6 ran TIME 1m 14.99s (slow by 0.99s)

Boolass
Your lucky day


Strange looking time on the last two 6f races of the day the seemingly unpredictable boolass running faster than the class 5 6f handicap ending the card by .13 nothing sufggests that there was any reason for this as went off very quick in the l;ast race,what it could do is underestimate boolass run and if the blinkers have same effect again it's almost a certainty she will be overpriced as this form will go down as dire by all future reference yet the time will say otherwise.She won't go up in the weights leaving her on a mark of 64 and that mark now looks at least very fair if not generous,if that's the case then the second your lucky day only rated 42 has also run well 3 1/4ls behind conceding 5 pound I presume she will get bumped up now the handicapper will surely be generous on face value of the form he could be harsh and put her in the high 50s I'm hoping he will put her in the low 50s maybe 55 and that should then make her a bit of value.A race that should get drastically underestimated..
 
Same with don't be I put on here around October time to win the aw mile championships in march,last two runs steps up in trip and wins the listed race at 20/1 it looked a bit unlucky last time out behind grendisar but that was off slow pace and same thing happened today went no gallop played into its hands,the 1m2f race for finals day looks a very weak race worst I've seen in years..
 
Lucky lodge might be worth a speculative bet at 20/1,ran last over c/d in October with andre Elliot riding,very little pace and was out wide could be excused run was a little disappointing returned to turf this season but did split steel rain nd rex imperator both rated 85 he was running off 73 on the turf so definitely has ability to win more races.When pj Mcdonald rode him on the four runs up to march at the end of the aw season was 1/1/2/2 last run was off 68 tomorrow off 67,his times also compare favourably over this c./d with tomorrows field.He gets the 2 draw tomorrow what he needs is a decent pace as his poorer runs have usually come in slowly run races.still think there's a few more races to be won this season with lucky lodge and at these sort of prices worth a bet,the betting will be interesting as has run poorly on last 4 runs

Lucky lodge 20/1 365/sportsbook/skybet/victor/corals


20/1 ppower
 
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Same with don't be I put on here around October time to win the aw mile championships in march,last two runs steps up in trip and wins the listed race at 20/1 it looked a bit unlucky last time out behind grendisar but that was off slow pace and same thing happened today went no gallop played into its hands,the 1m2f race for finals day looks a very weak race worst I've seen in years..

Don't Be will not be running in the finals unless a change off mind by owners!

Link

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/report/706113/dont-be-denies-grendisar-double
 
Bit unlucky as not enough pace on tracks like lightening looking at earlier times and yet this race they've gone over 1m28 seconds no chance of him winning in that slowly run race finished 5th under hand's n heels...
 
Southwell (AW) Result
29 Dec 2015
« 2:15 » UNIBET.CO.UK DAILY ENHANCED PLACE TERMS MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES
(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 4 Wolowitz (IRE) 7/4F 2 9-2 David Barron — * *
Phillip Makin


« 2 2 6 Burmese Whisper 5/2 2 9-1 Andrew Balding 67 * *
Oisin Murphy


« 3 3 3¾ Fiftytintsofsilver (IRE) 20/1 2 8-9 Gay Kelleway — * *
Adam Beschizza


4 1 7 Falcon's Fire (IRE) 9/2 2 9-1 Keith Dalgleish — * *
Tony Hamilton


« 5 6 ¾ Anagallis (IRE) 4/1 2 8-8over weight1 John Balding — * *
Tom Eaves


5 ran TIME 59.26s (slow by 1.26s

Wolowitz

A very poor looking maiden with 6ls winner wolowitz eventually hacking up was good for maybe another several lengths on top of this,if taken at face value going to be rated around 80 which may seem harsh considering only beating Burmese whisper thoroughly exposed rated 67.Infact it may prove very generous at least on this surface,the time only .04 slower than the class 4 for older horses winner crosse fire looked well handicapped taking the 3rd powerful wind as the marker in that race off 75 you'd have to think wolowitz could be at least a 90 horse on this surface and maybe in the future prove to be even better.There's also the possibility the handicvapper might underestimate this as second makes the race look very weak so the intial mark will be very interesting,been nothing from the 2yr olds bar the one mentioned on here previously so should take some beating back here and 6fs may be even better..
 
Wolverhampton (AW) Result
30 Dec 2015
« 7:40 LADBROKES HANDICAP (TAPETA)
(Class 7) (0-50, 3yo+) (7f32y) 7f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 5 Fairy Foxglove (IRE) 7/2J 5 9-4 P J F Murphy 47 * *
Tony Hamilton


« 2 2 hd Binky Blue (IRE) 14/1 3 9-6 h Daniel Mark Loughnane 49 * *
George Baker


« 3 4 4 Patron Of Explores (USA) 13/2 4 9-3 Patrick Holmes 46 * *
Jack Garritty


« 4 12 2¼ Lutine Charlie (IRE) 16/1 8 9-2 p Emma Owen 45 * *
Shane Gray


« 5 9 nse Poor Duke (IRE) 20/1 5 9-7 Michael Mullineaux 50 * *
Raul Da Silva


« 6 6 1¼ Machiavelian Storm (IRE) 14/1 3 9-2 p Michael Herrington 45 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 7 1 1¼ Spoken Words 16/1 6 9-3 e/s John David Riches 46 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 8 7 ½ Dark Phantom (IRE) 7/2J 4 9-4 Geoffrey Deacon 47 * *
Jim Crowley


« 9 3 ¾ Bionic Indian 4/1 3 9-0 p Michael Easterby 50 * *
Nathan Evans7


« 10 8 3¼ Paradise Spectre 33/1 8 9-5 p Zoe Davison 48 * *
Liam Keniry


« 11 10 5 Salvado (IRE) 20/1 5 8-13 Tony Carroll 49 * *
Rhiain Ingram7


« 12 11 6 Offbeat Safaris (IRE) 16/1 7 9-5 p John Mackie 48 * *
Joey Haynes


12 ran TIME 1m 27.90s (slow by 0.90s)

Fairy foxglove
Binky blue

Couldn't really get a worse race for horses rated upto 50 but the time suggests that they've run better than their marks although the form does look suspect with 5yr old winning first ever race after 24 races and similarly the second also 24 races so the actual form looks highly suspect the clock says not.The earlier times on the card also were a lot slower than recent meetings ran there also pointer for the time of the last being decent for grade,the winner and runner up were only rated 47 and 49 and although there overall profiles are to avoid now they've produced this time then at least over this c/d in such weak races there's no reason why they can't win more races.There was a 7f race on the 22nd of December for horses rated upto 60 which was run at a true pace,the track was probably quicker that night and they ran slightly slower and looking at similar races when track has been slower it's hard to dismiss the time even if they maybe unreliable..
 
Another overly competitive card so might be worth having another very small speculative bet in one of the poorer races,miss Lillie rated 59 was rated 82 may 2014 has really shown very little in recent races although some bits of her form in midfield still equivalent to this grade.The sire has a 15% strike rate on the surface,the race is full of thoroughly unreliable types and as she's such a massive price in a grade she's never run in before then she's worth a token bet with adam beschizza riding.I'd be surprised if not a decent trade as has been going off less than double figures in slightly better races than this so will be surprised if not similar prices in this race,she was also a slight eyecatcher after being held up at Kempton last time out over inadequate 7fs.Quadriga and lu u lucky look interesting as ones unexposed and the others well handicapped but at prices miss Lillie could be the value if she goes on the surface,should be a nice trade in there should could easily go off less than 10s in this grade,even shorter..

Miss Lillie 20/1 365
 
Wolverhampton (AW) Result
30 Dec 2015
« 7:40 LADBROKES HANDICAP (TAPETA)
(Class 7) (0-50, 3yo+) (7f32y) 7f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
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HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 5 Fairy Foxglove (IRE) 7/2J 5 9-4 P J F Murphy 47 * *
Tony Hamilton


« 2 2 hd Binky Blue (IRE) 14/1 3 9-6 h Daniel Mark Loughnane 49 * *
George Baker


« 3 4 4 Patron Of Explores (USA) 13/2 4 9-3 Patrick Holmes 46 * *
Jack Garritty


« 4 12 2¼ Lutine Charlie (IRE) 16/1 8 9-2 p Emma Owen 45 * *
Shane Gray


« 5 9 nse Poor Duke (IRE) 20/1 5 9-7 Michael Mullineaux 50 * *
Raul Da Silva


« 6 6 1¼ Machiavelian Storm (IRE) 14/1 3 9-2 p Michael Herrington 45 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 7 1 1¼ Spoken Words 16/1 6 9-3 e/s John David Riches 46 * *
Kieran O'Neill


« 8 7 ½ Dark Phantom (IRE) 7/2J 4 9-4 Geoffrey Deacon 47 * *
Jim Crowley


« 9 3 ¾ Bionic Indian 4/1 3 9-0 p Michael Easterby 50 * *
Nathan Evans7


« 10 8 3¼ Paradise Spectre 33/1 8 9-5 p Zoe Davison 48 * *
Liam Keniry


« 11 10 5 Salvado (IRE) 20/1 5 8-13 Tony Carroll 49 * *
Rhiain Ingram7


« 12 11 6 Offbeat Safaris (IRE) 16/1 7 9-5 p John Mackie 48 * *
Joey Haynes


12 ran TIME 1m 27.90s (slow by 0.90s)

Fairy foxglove
Binky blue

Couldn't really get a worse race for horses rated upto 50 but the time suggests that they've run better than their marks although the form does look suspect with 5yr old winning first ever race after 24 races and similarly the second also 24 races so the actual form looks highly suspect the clock says not.The earlier times on the card also were a lot slower than recent meetings ran there also pointer for the time of the last being decent for grade,the winner and runner up were only rated 47 and 49 and although there overall profiles are to avoid now they've produced this time then at least over this c/d in such weak races there's no reason why they can't win more races.There was a 7f race on the 22nd of December for horses rated upto 60 which was run at a true pace,the track was probably quicker that night and they ran slightly slower and looking at similar races when track has been slower it's hard to dismiss the time even if they maybe unreliable..

Makes up for Monday was yunlucky no pace and hood left off al;l dopwn to baker,clueless she was only running off 47 could easily win again on the write up above different universe to those things today..
 
Another meeting of small fields very few betting opportunitys the 1.55 might be worth a small bets,light rose ran 5th to exceeding power last time out after chasing the pace over tomorrows c/d,the pace horses all dropped away bar light rose and the first 4 were all finishers so the run can be slightly upgraded.The winners recently been second to mezzotint and loyalty and the 6th royal Normandy and 8th pacolita have also won so form looks ok,light rose isn't easy to win with and probably a horse I would avoid as she hovers in mid 60s and not the most resolute.The top 4 in handicap stand out in this grade but equally look unreliable and there might be a chance light rose can get to the front
may get easy lead,so looks a tiny bit of value if nothing takes her on,again could be reasonable trade the rest of the field look unbackable..

Light rose 11/1 ppower
 
Southwell (AW) Result
15 Dec 2015
« 3:00 » DAILY PRICE BOOSTS AT UNIBET MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 6) (3-5yo) 6f Standard
£2,911.05, £866.25, £432.90, £216.45
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SPAGEWGTTRAINER/JOCKEYORTSRPR

«1 4 Boolass (IRE) 10/11F 38-7 b1Brian Ellison64**
Callum Shepherd7


«2 33¼ Your Lucky Day 16/138-12 Chris Dwyer42**
Josephine Gordon7


«3 12 Luv U Lucky 3/139-5 Michael Appleby62**
Andrew Mullen


«4 52¼ Devilution (IRE) 11/238-12 Derek Shaw46**
Jack Osborn7


«5 620 La Paiva (FR) 25/148-11 pScott Dixon40**
Tim Clark3


«6 2½ Cornton Road 10/139-5 Phil McEntee—**
Robert Tart


6 ran TIME 1m 14.99s (slow by 0.99s)

Boolass
Your lucky day


Strange looking time on the last two 6f races of the day the seemingly unpredictable boolass running faster than the class 5 6f handicap ending the card by .13 nothing sufggests that there was any reason for this as went off very quick in the l;ast race,what it could do is underestimate boolass run and if the blinkers have same effect again it's almost a certainty she will be overpriced as this form will go down as dire by all future reference yet the time will say otherwise.She won't go up in the weights leaving her on a mark of 64 and that mark now looks at least very fair if not generous,if that's the case then the second your lucky day only rated 42 has also run well 3 1/4ls behind conceding 5 pound I presume she will get bumped up now the handicapper will surely be generous on face value of the form he could be harsh and put her in the high 50s I'm hoping he will put her in the low 50s maybe 55 and that should then make her a bit of value.A race that should get drastically underestimated..

Boolass runs today at Southwell. 9/4 best price at the moment.
 
KERCHING Took 7/2 got a bot of 4s as well..nice running against same horse it ran quicker on the same day!![/B

Couldn't have worked outy any better 3ls quicker than age of innocence when she hacked up and running against them today,3 horse race on paper..
 
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