Chin up, the season is young!
Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
- Thread starter Marb
- Start date
Chin up, the season is young!
Two selections two non runners! I'm trying to do better!
I've been looking at The Silver Bowl handicap at Haydock this Saturday. I might have found a blot on the handicap, in the shape of Soldiers Minute, but this depends on the reliability of a form line. Last September, Soldier's Minute was fourth in a listed race at Doncaster behind Tip Two Win.
After second placing to Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, Tip To Win is now rated 117, while Soldier's Minute current handicap mark is only 93. Soldiers Minute was actually beaten at odds-on first time out this season in a four runner race, but he must have needed the run.
A faster pace and bigger field will suit. One firm quote him at 20/1 at this current time. I may have a dabble at some point. I'm willing to chance the Tip Two Win formline.
I notice Soldiers Minute is entered in The Royal Hunt Cup which is a hell of a step up. Who knows, if connections could get a confidence boosting win into him before the Royal Meeting then 33/1 might not be available on the day.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nice win from Mirage Dancer who sets up nice doubles with Sioux Nation and Crystal Ocean.
I can't get my head around the St James Palace market. You've got Without Parole who this is a monumental step up for as favourite. Looked a group 2 animal tops the other day, Tip Two Win, who has Glory Awaits written all over him and in any event the 2000G form took a knock yesterday - Gustav Klimt is very limited. Olmedo won't run nor Masar and so Wootton who had nothing go right for him at Longchamp and who is on target for this is 16/1. It looks almost too big. He has form round a turn and indeed that Fountainbleu is working out really well. Should be 6s tops.
I can't get my head around the St James Palace market. You've got Without Parole who this is a monumental step up for as favourite. Looked a group 2 animal tops the other day, Tip Two Win, who has Glory Awaits written all over him and in any event the 2000G form took a knock yesterday - Gustav Klimt is very limited. Olmedo won't run nor Masar and so Wootton who had nothing go right for him at Longchamp and who is on target for this is 16/1. It looks almost too big. He has form round a turn and indeed that Fountainbleu is working out really well. Should be 6s tops.
Bunbury Cup.
Mukalal. 40/1. A stab at a big priced horse, whose each way chance is much better than 40/1 though. Mukalal is trained by Marcus Tregoning.He has already beaten the Duke Of Cambridge second, Tribute Act .That horse is rated 106 now. Also, Sea Fox was third that day, but has finished third in The Victoria Cup this season. So the form is excellent. Mukalal had a wind operation over the winter and probably needed the run last time when finishing down the field on his first start this season. He could fare a lot better in a race like the Bunbury Cup. Mukalal is number 33 or 34 on the list, so needs a few to come out to get a run, but that is quite possible. See what happens in the next couple weeks. 40/1 ATM.
Mukalal. 40/1. A stab at a big priced horse, whose each way chance is much better than 40/1 though. Mukalal is trained by Marcus Tregoning.He has already beaten the Duke Of Cambridge second, Tribute Act .That horse is rated 106 now. Also, Sea Fox was third that day, but has finished third in The Victoria Cup this season. So the form is excellent. Mukalal had a wind operation over the winter and probably needed the run last time when finishing down the field on his first start this season. He could fare a lot better in a race like the Bunbury Cup. Mukalal is number 33 or 34 on the list, so needs a few to come out to get a run, but that is quite possible. See what happens in the next couple weeks. 40/1 ATM.
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Mukalal has been entered in the Gigaset International at Ascot two weeks later as well.
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He was giving Tribute Act nine pounds that day too. So time I started hoovering up the 40/1, and then hope for the best, in terms of making the cut.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Had a wee rant of Twitter yesterday:
"As usual the John Smith's next sat is a horror. 76 entered & the first 3yo is 38th in the list (r105). That horse would be no 8 if the BHA changed the entry rules. Wigmore Hall won the race as a 3yo in '10 off 101. That was the last time a 3yo got in.Please adapt @BHAPressOffice"
Naturally there are horses (3yos) in the race I want to back, but they won't get in. One of them, Zaaki, Is also entered in the 3yo 10f handicap at Newmarket on Friday. He's worth a go at 8s/9s. Ryan Moore has been booked. He ran an eye catching race for one so unexposed in the Hampton Court.
"As usual the John Smith's next sat is a horror. 76 entered & the first 3yo is 38th in the list (r105). That horse would be no 8 if the BHA changed the entry rules. Wigmore Hall won the race as a 3yo in '10 off 101. That was the last time a 3yo got in.Please adapt @BHAPressOffice"
Naturally there are horses (3yos) in the race I want to back, but they won't get in. One of them, Zaaki, Is also entered in the 3yo 10f handicap at Newmarket on Friday. He's worth a go at 8s/9s. Ryan Moore has been booked. He ran an eye catching race for one so unexposed in the Hampton Court.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 23,884
It's a debate/argument that arises almost every year around the Ebor but I don't recall it being an issue for the Magnet Cup.
I'm for the status quo. Allowing entries by rating rather than weight would lead to far more dark horses getting into the race. There would be several 3yos rated Group horses at home confined to lesser races to preserve favourable marks while older horses are out trying to earn a mark high enough to get in.
3yos will have their chances as older horses to take in these big races. There's no shortage of valuable 3yo-only handicaps. Let them plunder some of them or, if you're patient enough, wait a year. I you think your horse is well handicapped as a 3yo off 105 and you can keep it at that mark for a year it should be all the better handicapped a year later when, in theory, it should have matured another half a stone or more. Plus, if you follow the likes of Timeform's wfa scale rather than the official one, you could argue that 3yos are already generously treated by the official scale. In the Magnet Cup it's 10lbs wfa, according to Timeform it should only be 9lbs.
Just as I think horses that need fast ground should be allowed their conditions when nature is dictating them, I think older horses on the brink of making the cut in a valuable race shouldn't have their chance to run denied by allowing horses set to carry less weight in ahead of them.
I'm for the status quo. Allowing entries by rating rather than weight would lead to far more dark horses getting into the race. There would be several 3yos rated Group horses at home confined to lesser races to preserve favourable marks while older horses are out trying to earn a mark high enough to get in.
3yos will have their chances as older horses to take in these big races. There's no shortage of valuable 3yo-only handicaps. Let them plunder some of them or, if you're patient enough, wait a year. I you think your horse is well handicapped as a 3yo off 105 and you can keep it at that mark for a year it should be all the better handicapped a year later when, in theory, it should have matured another half a stone or more. Plus, if you follow the likes of Timeform's wfa scale rather than the official one, you could argue that 3yos are already generously treated by the official scale. In the Magnet Cup it's 10lbs wfa, according to Timeform it should only be 9lbs.
Just as I think horses that need fast ground should be allowed their conditions when nature is dictating them, I think older horses on the brink of making the cut in a valuable race shouldn't have their chance to run denied by allowing horses set to carry less weight in ahead of them.
Im my opinion the change in policy was a good thing. There are already plenty of races confined to 3yos, and the fact they are still improving at that age gives them too much of an advantage in handicaps against older horses, most of whom have paid their dues and are entitled to a shot at a big prize.
Will have to call you "Henry" if you keep hoovering up prices.
Win lose or draw you have the value and may luck be with you.ive had a little on at 14s but im envious.
I havent looked at the race properly yet,just took your advice.
Cheers mate, I've beaten the price, can I hammer the bookmaker though. We will find out Saturday! Mukalal is sixteen on the list so comfortably makes the cut. Its times like this, that I consider my old chum from The Racing Forum, and keen Marcus Tregoning fan - Maxillon 5. I wonder if me'owd is joining in, wherever he is? About time this thread justified its purpose too!
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Its the john smiths on saturday and i like two in it
William Haggas loves a winner at york and after its fine run in the Royal hunt ive done Seniority 14/1.
But
MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 ( 33s coral ) loves york more than Haggas does.won this race in 2015 after running well in the coral a race he finished 5th in last week.has been running well all season and although any rain would help i think he has a good chance and it looks like this race is the target.
William Haggas loves a winner at york and after its fine run in the Royal hunt ive done Seniority 14/1.
But
MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 ( 33s coral ) loves york more than Haggas does.won this race in 2015 after running well in the coral a race he finished 5th in last week.has been running well all season and although any rain would help i think he has a good chance and it looks like this race is the target.
Good luck with those, Outsider.
Gigaset International, Ascot. 28th July - Mukalal 50/1: Top price with Paddy Powers and Betfair. (Check each way terms).
Why not try to kill two birds with one stone with Mukalal? He has only had one run this season. I can't help thinking, that the 50/1 for The Gigaset international at Ascot, in just over two weeks time, could turn out to be a huge price, (assuming/hoping) he puts in a big run this Saturday? Mukalal is far from over raced. I wouldn't put it past Marcus Tregoning to target the double, (Anyone remember Bronze Angel?).
Gigaset International, Ascot. 28th July - Mukalal 50/1: Top price with Paddy Powers and Betfair. (Check each way terms).
Why not try to kill two birds with one stone with Mukalal? He has only had one run this season. I can't help thinking, that the 50/1 for The Gigaset international at Ascot, in just over two weeks time, could turn out to be a huge price, (assuming/hoping) he puts in a big run this Saturday? Mukalal is far from over raced. I wouldn't put it past Marcus Tregoning to target the double, (Anyone remember Bronze Angel?).
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Jim Crowley booked for Mukalal.
Andrew Asquith
Just bought the weekender and topspeed puts it up.i hope it can carry all this extra weight.
That 40/1 is looking good.
I love it when i get a big price like you have even if it gets beat because it proves your thinking was right.
And when it comes off theres no better feeling.
Cosmelli last week made my year.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 23,884
Good luck with that one, marble. You've done really well with that price too. Aren't you tempted to take a profit to risk? I know I would be!
Thanks Desert Orchid... dont get too envious folks, I've only got a few peanuts on at 40's!!!
If Mukalal wins on Saturday, it'll be much more than about money...
It'll be 20 years of watching racing, since about the age of 14, going against all my peers who were bored shitless at the thought of spending any time on racing, (for one reason or another), let alone risking what precious little coin they might have on it, (probably rightly so)!
Twenty years of trying to develop my knowledge and understanding, especially of weights and handicaps. If anything, I will be just as equally happy to see other people, (whether through following me or not), to win a few Bob on Mukalal, as I will be for myself.
The thought that counts!
If Mukalal wins on Saturday, it'll be much more than about money...
It'll be 20 years of watching racing, since about the age of 14, going against all my peers who were bored shitless at the thought of spending any time on racing, (for one reason or another), let alone risking what precious little coin they might have on it, (probably rightly so)!
Twenty years of trying to develop my knowledge and understanding, especially of weights and handicaps. If anything, I will be just as equally happy to see other people, (whether through following me or not), to win a few Bob on Mukalal, as I will be for myself.
The thought that counts!
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