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SlimChance

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Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

Jackson Martinez 80/1
Edison Cavani 40/1
Fred 22/1

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SlimChance said:
Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

Jackson Martinez 80/1
Edison Cavani 40/1
Fred 22/1

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You'd want Columbia and Uruguay to be progressing beyond the group stage though Slim, I realise they are top seeds but do you think it's that cut and dried ?
 
SlimChance said:
Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

Jackson Martinez 80/1
Edison Cavani 40/1
Fred 22/1

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Click to expand...

I posted Cavani elsewhere 2 months ago when 50s, can't remember where now.

Fred I don't know - what if Jo is their striker?

What about Klose at 50s?

France's group is very soft - Benzema at 33s?
 
A hat trick in a group stage match is going to have a big bearing on this.

2010 there was a four way tie on 5 Goals.
2006 Klose won it with 5.
2002 Fat Ronaldo won it with 8.
1998 Suker with 6.
1994 two way tie with 6 goals.
1990 Schillachi with 6 goals.
1986 Lineker with 6.
1982 Rossi with 6.

Tournaments before that were, 6,7,10,9,4,13,11.

So if we take the last 8 tournaments, it looks like 6 goals would be in the mix. 4 in the group stages and then a couple more along the way would do it.

I like Argentina for the tournament, but wont be going for the obvious one in Messi. Who is the likely starter as an out and out striker for them? Higuain? 36 appearances and 21 goals. 4 goals at the last world cup, 9 goals in qualification.
 
I like the three I posted as massive value e/w bets. I like Fred the least but 11/2 on him being in top 4 is really a 9/2 shot. Its marginal but its value.

DG - The teams progress is factored into the price but as del boy says you can place in this market by getting to last 16.
 
Hamm said:
What makes you think Fred is value?
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The 22/1 with Skybet is the right price win only but its not right for e/w betting. Like I said he's a 9/2 shot to finish in the top 4 so 11/2 makes him marginal value. I much rather the first two on my list.
 
I don't see him as a 9/2 shot at all as it's not even 100% clear whether he will start.

Cavani seem the best of the 3.
 
Hamm said:
I don't see him as a 9/2 shot at all as it's not even 100% clear whether he will start.

Cavani seem the best of the 3.
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There is €387 up at 6.0 trying to back Fred to place in the top 4 on Betfair. I'm just going by the numbers. With Brazil likely to go deep he'll have the opportunities to get the goals to place. You wouldn't want to be laying 11/2 on that and the 22/1 win part is live too. Its a good bet if not a great bet but one to have on your portfolio if you're playing the market.
 
I've already backed Balotelli at 55.0 on Betfair.

Italy always perform well at the big tournaments, no matter how strong a team they actually appear to have on paper. I appreciate they have a tricky group but I see them emerging at the expense of either England or Uruguay.

They breezed through their qualifying group and Balotelli scored 5 goals in 5 games in the qualifying Campaign. He was also joint top goalscorer at Euro 2012 and imo is a man for the big occasion. He was Italy's main danger man at those Euros and he was excellent in every game. He'll be on penalties too.

I'm against backing anyone for top goalscorer who has excess competition from his own teammates to score goals - Messi, Higuain & Aguero the best example. I see no value in any of those Argentina forwards.
 
You've got fancy an Argentinian as their Group games could all be turkey shoots.

Messi 8-1
Aguero 16-1
Higuain 25-1
Lavezzi 150 with Spreadbet, as low as 40's with other firms.
 
Double Handful said:
I'm against backing anyone for top goalscorer who has excess competition from his own teammates to score goals - Messi, Higuain & Aguero the best example. I see no value in any of those Argentina forwards.
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Surely the more goals a team is expected to score the more goals is likely to be distributed to your played. You don't want to relying on a one man band.
 
Lukaku 33-1/Hazard 100-1 - I can see Belgium getting a few in the group stages, does anyone know if Lukaku takes their pens or will it be Hazard? I can see both doing well and Belgium going to 2nd round/maybe 1/4 final. Hazard ranges from 40-1 with one bookies to 100-1 with another. Could be value looking beyond just the strikers.

Reus 66-1 - Seemed to get a few in qualifying and will surely start each game. Germany just seem to be one of those teams that always perform at major tournaments, if they can cope with conditions he could be a good bet at that price.
 
My own betting guidelines for the World Cup are:
1. In Europe, back a European side or a previous winner.
2. Back a South American country or a previous winner if the tournament is in a country that has played in the Copa America.
3. Never back against the Germans.
4. A player who scores in one World Cup will probably score in another.

Brazil or Argentina to win the tournament but Thomas Muller at 33/1 is a decent price for top goalscorer, particularly if, as I expect, they get through to the semis.
 
Sorry Wasser it was a bit of an in joke. I meant the I'd lay the author, I know him. Good lad.
 
Really good bets these Slim, good spot. Fortunes wanting to back Cavani under 10 on the machine.

Reckon this will be a good market to play EW given 4 place angle as liquidity develops.

You'll struggle get much on at 80 with Coral though, they're hot on place arbs.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Really good bets these Slim, good spot. Fortunes wanting to back Cavani under 10 on the machine.

Reckon this will be a good market to play EW given 4 place angle as liquidity develops.

You'll struggle get much on at 80 with Coral though, they're hot on place arbs.
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Someone that understands! Hope springs eternal.
 
Re: Coral. Thanks for pointing that out. I have an account with them that I use occasionally for horrendous win multiple bets so I best leave the 80/1 as I'm losing on the multiples but I will have my day with them. No point blowing the account out for the sake of €25 or €55 e/w on Jackson.
 
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