Thursday 2nd May 2024

yorick

Apprentice
Joined
Mar 2, 2018
Messages
468
That man Outsider keeps tempting me in, you. No sooner have I decided to not even look at the Punchestown form than he draws me in with his 'Long Shot' post. Damn his eyes.

It's a flippin' minefield, innit, the 6.35 handicap hurdle? You know I won't have a bet but I have cast my form eye over it, for what that is worth, not being an expert on either Irish or hurdle form in general.
Yes, of course, Mullins has the favourite, blah, blah, blah, but I like to look for value in these races and I could see reasons for nominating a couple. Firstly, Sequestered, who, I see, Chaumi has named in Outsider's post. I wrote, in response:

Watching that Maxuum race was informative, wasn't it. Firstly, you say 'came from the back' but we should add that he was held up in last place all the way round and it was only between the last 3rd and 2nd last that he began to improve, and quite smoothly, too. He came under quite some pressure approaching the last, where a mistake didn't help his cause. In response to your querying if he was 'nearest at finish', I would say he was no closer to the winner passing the post than he was jumping the last but, at the same time, that was only the second race he'd had all year and I'm not sure he was fully wound up for it.

Re the Martin Pipe I'd say that distance was too short and the breeding suggests that back to 3m is better. Yes, the 40/1 on offer with 365 six places looks tempting, doesn't it.

I might also write that the run when he beat Stuzzikini could suggest he's well handicapped horse. Another who I could see running well at big odds (also 40/1) is Hands Of Gold. Now, this is only the third handicap run he's ever competed in. The second was over 2m 4f at Cork where jockey Ricky Doyle might well, aptly, have been given the soubriquet 'Hands Of Stone' since, for most of the race, they were motionless as he ambled along at the back of the field. It was only around the last two flights that they were called upon and what movement there was only suggested that this was a run to give the horse a good blow out. The distance would have been too short for this son of Shantou and today's 3m looks much more the ticket. I notice that in his first handicap, over 2m 4f, he was noted 'running on'.

On a last, slightly odd, note I noticed a horse in the 7.00 at Chelmsford, Qeyaady, who looks like he might a lively outsider over a new distance for him in this poor staying race. Only a sneaky suspicion FYI. No bet but I'll be watching to see how it gets on. Jockey Egan has +£18 record when riding for the stable (in 165 rides)
 
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Smooth Scotch(66-1) would have made a huge difference to my fortunes yesterday had it not fallen as it was right up there and travelling well. I suspect it got clipped just before the fall :(
Todays lucky 15 EW on a very tricky day is

1540 Hands on 11-1

1615 Pinkerton 10-1

1650 Fameaftertheglory 9-1

1835 Lucky Lyreen 8-1

Good luck all you punters :)
 
Alright bonny lad?

Tricky's not the word. Very tempting these big fields (quite a change from British racing, eh?) but also the short path to poorhouse.

Good luck with your nags, my friend. I'll keep a lookout for them.
 
Anna Bunina (6:35 Pun) has been upped in distance this year and performed well on ground that would not be her cup of tea. The drying ground will be more to her liking and I have more than a passing interest at 16/1 (GP 6 places).

Nara (3:40 Pun) is a filly I've been monitoring since she arrived from France. She ran well enough in the Boodles when out the back until making ground from 3 out only for her effort to dissolve approaching the last. The ground is an unknown (hasn't raced on anything better than soft) but I expect her to be ridden more prominently today. I've taken 7/1 (GP 6 places). Not to the same stakes as Anna but the EWD would be nice. :)

Best of Luck all.
 
Hiya.

Regarding the going, her half brother, Genius, won on good ground and grandsire on the paternal side has thrown up lots of winners on Gd/Gst, too. I backed Nara at Cheltenham as well but that was against 4 -year olds. I would never be backing four-year olds against older horses at this time of year, myself. Good luck, though. I'll have my eyes peeled. (y)
 
Hiya. (y)

Regarding the going, her half brother, Genius, won on good ground and grandsire on the paternal side has thrown up lots of winners on Gd/Gst, too. I backed Nara at Cheltenham as well but that was against 4 -year olds. I would never be backing four-year olds against older horses at this time of year, myself. Good luck, though. I'll have my eyes peeled. (y)

That's a pile of poo I'm writing there.: 3 of the first 5 were four year olds.:oops:🫤

And well done with the place (y)
 
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Nice winner, mate. 10/1 sweet.
Cheers m8. I am just sweating on lucky lyreen in the 1835 to complete the bet. I'm trying to find decent priced nags for tomorrow now. Punchestown is a course that I have never worked at although I have had offers.
 
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