The 2024 Longshot Thread

Outsider said:
I had big expectations about MAXXUM after he won but the hcapper hammered him.
Tried chasing and tomorrow reverts to hcaps and with a 7lb claimers is back on a winning mark.
At 25/1 I have to stick with it as it's a €60,000 race.
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Boom!


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Desert Orchid said:
Leo -3.00 – Ailie Rose 20/1, 7 places (Sky) & Yeats Star 28/1, 6 places (B3) – AR is top on my figures while YS is a first-season novice with potential. I want them onside at the prices.
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Yeats Star a decent third to cover the outlay on the race.
 
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Outsider said:
I had big expectations about MAXXUM after he won but the hcapper hammered him.
Tried chasing and tomorrow reverts to hcaps and with a 7lb claimers is back on a winning mark.
At 25/1 I have to stick with it as it's a €60,000 race.
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Great shout, Outsider.
 
Outsider said:
I had big expectations about MAXXUM after he won but the hcapper hammered him.
Tried chasing and tomorrow reverts to hcaps and with a 7lb claimers is back on a winning mark.
At 25/1 I have to stick with it as it's a €60,000 race.
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Working well, sir. Hats off.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Muss 2.15 – Via Dolorosa 66/1, 4 places – I have to take a punt on this. It has raced in France a couple of times this season winning at Auteuil in October. The French handicapper appears to rate the form and back in March ’22 it was put up to 137 (122 here) for a wide-margin win under a claimer. On top of that, Sophie Leech has only had two runners in this type of race at this track in the last ten years and both have won. I’ve also backed the each-way double with Madara at Leopardstown.
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Not claiming Madara as a winner for the thread but the win single at 9/2 softened the disappointment of VD's poor run.
 
Outsider said:
Did you do Madara moe.
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Not this time: not my sort of price. But I did when he won last time. She’s quite good at sending raiding parties to France, isn’t she. On the downside I often back John Mackies horses but missed his 66/1 bumper winner. Visited his stable many years ago. If anyone ever goes to Uttoxeter his stables are near to the legendary Salt Box Cafe.
 
Call me Lyreen 350L 40/1 6 places.

One of JPs 7 runners and GE has a few in it

I want By your side to place obviously as I've got it with my 2 from saturday.but it's worse off with the 2 that's beat him the last twice because Jack Kennedy takes over.
The claimer who rode Maxxum was winning 3 in a row and rides GE/Jp horse Magic Tricks who looks to have a chance being 9lb better off with common practice and BYS.

Back in 2022 Call Me Lyceen won the Liffey off 138 beating Magic tricks and the hcapper put him up and with tax carried 152 in the county giving weight to state man.
Then it was sent chasing. After 5 months off he returned in a hcap and finished nearly last on heavy going.
Tomorrow with Danny Gilligans claim he runs off 142.
Of course this could be a stepping stone for future races but it's a €90,000 race so at 40/1 I will have a little on.
 
Yes, CML was one of several that interested me in the race but I decided to wait until I got home this morning before betting. I've missed the 40s so will let it go. I'll probably regret it.

My main bet in the race is now Morning Soldier 40/1, 6 places, BOG. It's top of my ratings, a second-season novice and Thomas Mullins is more than adept at plotting them up. The girl's 7lb claim won't do its chances any harm assuming she's competent.

I think the shorter shots will be there at the end but can't back them all so have settled for another outsider in Brazil 33/1 who beat Gaelic Warrior in the 2022 Boodles and is lightly raced since. I suppose it might be going for the County but there's a chance they might have something else lined up for that.

In the handicap chase, another fascinating puzzle, I've taken three outsiders against the field. Embittered (40/1), Indiana Jones (33/1) and Good Time Johnny (22/1), and have combined them in ew doubles. If GTJ can put in a decent round of jumping he'll win with his head in his chest but that might be a very big if. He's done nothing so far over fences to suggest he can do that but those kinds of doubts put me off Vanillier in the National!
 
I looked up SRBCrawford after his horse sadly got injured yesterday and decided he was a trainer to keep an eye. Annoyingly he’s just won the first race in Ireland at 20/1 but I didn’t back it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, CML was one of several that interested me in the race but I decided to wait until I got home this morning before betting. I've missed the 40s so will let it go. I'll probably regret it.

My main bet in the race is now Morning Soldier 40/1, 6 places, BOG. It's top of my ratings, a second-season novice and Thomas Mullins is more than adept at plotting them up. The girl's 7lb claim won't do its chances any harm assuming she's competent.

I think the shorter shots will be there at the end but can't back them all so have settled for another outsider in Brazil 33/1 who beat Gaelic Warrior in the 2022 Boodles and is lightly raced since. I suppose it might be going for the County but there's a chance they might have something else lined up for that.

In the handicap chase, another fascinating puzzle, I've taken three outsiders against the field. Embittered (40/1), Indiana Jones (33/1) and Good Time Johnny (22/1), and have combined them in ew doubles. If GTJ can put in a decent round of jumping he'll win with his head in his chest but that might be a very big if. He's done nothing so far over fences to suggest he can do that but those kinds of doubts put me off Vanillier in the National!
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I agree with Brazil.been on my radar for a while.
 
I think someone mentioned it already but, for the sake of an interest, I've taken 28/1 Gold Dancer in this next race. Why would Mullins run it in this first time up for him unless he rated it?
 
moehat said:
I looked up SRBCrawford after his horse sadly got injured yesterday and decided he was a trainer to keep an eye. Annoyingly he’s just won the first race in Ireland at 20/1 but I didn’t back it.
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You’re annoyed? I’ve got a good friend who I often call Brucio! Didn’t. Even. Spot. It! :mad:
 
Crawford is no mug. He often sends them over to Ayr (25% this season) and Perth (21%), etc, to pick up easy money.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the handicap chase, another fascinating puzzle, I've taken three outsiders against the field. Embittered (40/1), Indiana Jones (33/1) and Good Time Johnny (22/1), and have combined them in ew doubles. If GTJ can put in a decent round of jumping he'll win with his head in his chest but that might be a very big if. He's done nothing so far over fences to suggest he can do that but those kinds of doubts put me off Vanillier in the National!
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I think GTJ might have sneaked into a minor place.
 
Kicking myself a bit. I had Lord Erskine joint second top but opted not to back it because I fancied too many of the younger horses to improve past the 11yo whose form is over further.

I suspect there was a bit of a pace collapse in the race.
 
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