Saturday 4th May 2024

Y

yorick

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Mar 2, 2018
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Saturday 4th may 2024



A bumper Saturday bonanza today and so many races to consider, aren’t there? The road to penury, without due care and attention. However, I have three notebook nominees running. Two of my NH note entries run and each have questions to answer.

Fine Casting - Uttoxeter 5.10 11/2 Ew
My last note on this fellow was:
‘Breeding suggests the minimum trip is totally inadequate. He’s by Shantou and the grand sire gets staying horses so that points to a 3m trip being required. Looking at his career thus far, it’s a wonder that they haven’t tried the 8yo over that distance’.
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But the truth is, his LWR over hurdles was 123 over 2m 4f in a CL3, same as today, on the soft and he won that by 9L. The pieces are back on after being omitted last time out.


Benny Baloo - Hexham 5.35 11/2 Ew
My initial note on this one after his chase debut at Newcastle was:
‘A full brother to Betty Baloo, three -time 3m chase winner, this is, clearly, bred to chase and certainly put in a promising run.
Ridden patiently but travelling well, he started to pick up the home straight without really challenging the leaders. Come the line, though, there was pleasing headway being made to signify that we can have a little fun with this one. 3m certainly looks the drill. Jumped well here, I thought. The fences are pretty unforgiving here.’
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My entry after his last run, when 3rd at Market Rasen, was that the ground went against him that day when it turned to soft after starting the meeting as G/Sft. Having said that, when I first noticed him on his chase debut at Newcastle it was soft going.
Well, I suppose I’ll do him ew and we’ll see, eh?

I noted this one in the Spring Cup at Newbury and thought he ran an understated, promising race:

Racingbreaks Rider- Thirsk 2.40 7/1 Ew

Four more who appear worth backing are:

Tactical – Newmarket 1.45 33/1

Punctuation – Goodwood 2.45 3/1

Rioja Alta – Thirsk 4.55 11/2

Total lockdown Yarmouth 6.25 8/1

Ew L15
 
Yeah,there is a lot to choose from. Here are some o my bets.
EW bets

Goodwood 430 Sweet reward
Thirsk 240 Quest for fun
Newmarket 220 Mr professor
Punchestown 525 The wallpark

And good luck to Frankie with Society Man tonight in the Kentucky Derby

Good luck all
 
Happy Star Wars Day, everyone.

(May the fourth be with you...)

Happy to keep betting quiet while the season unfolds but these are my main fancies today:

NWM 1.45 Summerghand. If it's trying it wins, end of. Just don't know if today is the day but it might just need to sneak up the ratings again to get into the Wokingham. Watching him for the last while has been a bit like watching Langer Dan waiting for the big target.

NWM 2.55 Vadream. 6lbs clear on my figures. Possibly best with give but second best RPR on good ground and unlikely to be any jar in the surface today.

NWM 3.35 City Of Troy. Current price could look ridiculously big at around 3.37pm.

NWM 4.10 To Catch A Thief. No market confidence today, it seems, but looks to me like it's been trained for this.

THSK 2.40 Northern Express. My strongest fancy of the day. The class horse in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Happy to keep betting quiet while the season unfolds but these are my main fancies today:

NWM 1.45 Summerghand. If it's trying it wins, end of. Just don't know if today is the day but it might just need to sneak up the ratings again to get into the Wokingham. Watching him for the last while has been a bit like watching Langer Dan waiting for the big target.

NWM 2.55 Vadream. 6lbs clear on my figures. Possibly best with give but second best RPR on good ground and unlikely to be any jar in the surface today.

NWM 3.35 City Of Troy. Current price could look ridiculously big at around 3.37pm.

NWM 4.10 To Catch A Thief. No market confidence today, it seems, but looks to me like it's been trained for this.

THSK 2.40 Northern Express. My strongest fancy of the day. The class horse in the race.
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Yup, agree with you there, DO. They'll be plenty of time to go more fully once the season has settled down.

I've had a look at Northern , who won this last year but do feel he'll have to be at his very best to win this, rated 9Lbs higher in the ratings.I feel there may something lurking, which is why I've gone for RR. I notice that Hills' record at the course is just excellent: 4-6 overall and 2-2 in older races. I had noted him on reviewing the Spring Cup.
Absolutely no idea Guineas - wise but I'd normally go for an unbeaten colt: your fellah, I think, Has it on times.

Good luck, eh?
 
Hmmm.

My two NH bets were so disappointing.

I swear I will not back Fine Casting until they up him to 3m. At one point he looked like he might win despite some really shabby hurdling. Yup, a 3m chase on the soft or nothing with this one

As for Benny Baloo. Now look, I think I understand nepotism and a father's love for a son but, really, William Easterby rode a shocking race. If you watched it or fancy watching it then you'll see him take such a pull on the horse before jumping some of those fences. If he doesn't know how to present a horse to a fence then I just don't know. I had marked BB down as a lovely jumper. Not with a ride like that. Not good at all. He just didn't get the horse to jump or settle into a rhythm.
Well at least he was placed.

I'm afraid Rioja Alta ran like a drain and Racingbreaks Rider was awful too. I managed a winner with Punctuation who was given a peach of a ride by Hollie.
Oh well, the sport was good, wasn't it?
 
After it had been raining all Friday and Yarmouth was dscribing the going as 'Good' at the time, I wrote the following last night ready to blog:

In the Yarmouth 6.25 I reckon the ground will be riding soft, not ‘Good’ as is currently described. I live just 20 miles from the course and today it’s been nothing but rain from about 9am. Looking at the race, there are precious few who will handle the distance.

The going at Yarm tomorrow they’re calling good (based on early this morn) but it’s been raining solidly since about 9am and it surely must be soft at least by tomorrow’s inspection. In the 6.25 the fav is an easy winner on the soft lto. Fair enough but every other runner has either distance or ground issues. Total Lockdown was rated 63 last Sept when second at Leicester over 12f on the soft. Rated 52 now. Ran just 4 days ago and he’s out again.
Ran placed last Oct at Yarm on sft in fast run race over 12f rated 63 cl5
10/1 at least. Prob be nrs and rule 4 but well worth a look
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When I looked at the BHA site this morning and saw that the going had only changed to G/sft - Sft in places, I decided not not publish what I'd written but had a quiet Ew on the horse just in case (You know how things work out) and took 12's.

It's just won at 7/2 with 35p Rule 4 (!).
 
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One of my old man's favourite sayings was, "Better to be lucky than good."

(Another was, "One false move and I'll give you a hiding you'll never forget!" Funny how you remember these things...)
 
Have you noticed, among your mates, some are just luckier than others? Or do they make their own luck?
 
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