Fontwell plodders

[Quixall Crossett]

The first race there tomorrow is a cracker. Definitely one for the connoisseur. Twelve runners with eight of them rated 78 or lower and two of them rated in the sixties.
Dreams are made of this !!
But, Houston, we have a problem. I just cannot put my finger on the winner yet and i'm sitting here with a shortlist. So i thought my fellow Professors of Plodology might have a look and at least one of you might come up with the winner.
I have got to go out this morning for a few hours but i will be having another hour on the race when i get back home. If any of you do happen to compile a shortlist, make sure Bellamys Grey is on it. I love this old bugger and he has been running a lot more consistently this season. He is not getting himself tailed off now and coming with his usual flurry and seems to be mellowing in his old age. (If only we all did).
But there are a few others with a chance. Hopefully we can find it.

Have a good day all.

 

[Anadin]

With today's poor mishmash of racing, I thought I would look at the race, wouldn't get involved, but looking at it briefly, I would be on "Only Fools" bit of an owner trainer type (Pipe Racing club) as well as Gillard booked, 50% strike rate at Fontwell (4 rides, 2 wins & a place) as well as 66% when riding for Pipe only 3 races to go on in the past 12 months so not a lot of history to work on but if I had a free bet that's what it would be on. Good Luck.

 

[chaumi]

Looks to me like Bellamy's wants it softer? If the drying conditions continue (as they look set), he might not line up. I can see a couple with a few minutes glance through, but will delay naming till the prices are up.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Another tremendous contest in prospect.

 

[barjon]

Blimey, QC. This is going to be harder than the Times crossword

 

[Quixall Crossett]

Blimey, QC. This is going to be harder than the Times crossword

 

[Quixall Crossett]

Looks to me like Bellamy's wants it softer? If the drying conditions continue (as they look set), he might not line up. I can see a couple with a few minutes glance through, but will delay naming till the prices are up.

The going is now good to soft, good in places. The Clerk has said it is going to be "mainly" dry which could mean it is not going to be "totally" dry. He has gone ok on this sort of going before so its not a major worry.
I'm not just concentrating on him though. There are two or three others with just as good a chance and i'll be having another look when i've made myself a sarnie.

 

[yorick]

Goodness gracious me. Needle in a haystack job, this one.

I've pored over the form of these beasts and, finally, come up with my choice:
The Cox Express.
In the context of what I've been poring over, I think his last run over the course showed some promise. Firstly, the time of the race was the only decent time I could find with all the runners. It seems to me that it was all happening a bit too quickly. After being outpaced, though, he was making some headway up the straight which makes me think that this trip could be more to his liking, even though the breeding on the sire's side wouldn't suggest as much, However, the grandsire Cape Cross might imbue some stamina into this one. Yes, I know he's been tried over 2m 4f before but that was on softer ground and that last run might suggest that better ground suits.
He's only lightly raced and I thought a lot of his hurdling was decent. 7/1

 

[Quixall Crossett]

Goodness gracious me. Needle in a haystack job, this one.

I've pored over the form of these beasts and, finally, come up with my choice:
The Cox Express.
In the context of what I've been poring over, I think his last run over the course showed some promise. Firstly, the time of the race was the only decent time I could find with all the runners. It seems to me that it was all happening a bit too quickly. After being outpaced, though, he was making some headway up the straight which makes me think that this trip could be more to his liking, even though the breeding on the sire's side wouldn't suggest as much, However, the grandsire Cape Cross might imbue some stamina into this one. Yes, I know he's been tried over 2m 4f before but that was on softer ground and that last run might suggest that better ground suits.
He's only lightly raced and I thought a lot of his hurdling was decent. 7/1

He was one of the shortlist mate but as hard as i tried, i just couldnt pin one down. No problem, no bet today, there is always tomorrow.

Have a good day all.

 

[chaumi]

I'd landed on:

Vintage Icon - Softer ground perhaps would have been better, but it is what it is and true ground preferences are unknown as yet. 2nd run after a wind op and P first time. I spotted VI making a little headway from well out the back approaching the last quarter of the 3 mile race at Plumpton last time when 125-1, suggesting there might be some latent ability (as you would expect from a Sixties I). That was a short-lived effort, but he seemed to be handling the goodish ground there OK. Carrying a bag of feathers today. 66-1 best last night. That seems to have halved with a few overnight but think I saw 40 and 50 still in places. Could easily go the other way during the day.

Ben Case's Stargazer Belle looks like she might have some ability, based on a couple of maiden hurdle runs last spring. Lightly raced since. Out of Telescope and a Kings Theatre sired mare that was fairly useful at class 3 level, she might have something under the hood. Would have wanted at least 33-1 though, currently 14s and 16s.

 

[Quixall Crossett]

Blimey, QC. This is going to be harder than the Times crossword

Its just my type of race mate. Unfortunately, i cant put my finger on any one horse in this race today. But we all have our favourite races or types of race and i would take a card full of races like this any day of the week. For me, these type of races will often throw up a plot, a plan, and so by doing them over and over again, little snippets and/or patterns sometimes emerge and they all get stored in what little brain i have left. I like to watch closely and follow certain types of trainers, those at the lower end of the training ranks. I follow closely the ones whose yards are sponsored by the makers of WD40 so that when the handbrake comes off on "that" day, they are confident that it is in good working order.
I dont bet on the flat but if i did, you would never catch me backing anything trained by the likes of Appleby, Gosden, O'Brien, Stoute etc etc. Similarly, i never touch anything trained by Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls, Elliott etc etc. If i tried to list the big price touches just from the past couple of years you would see trainers like Sir Micky Hammond, Ben Haslam, Sam England, Kenny Johnson, Sue Gardner and the likes in the list. And of course, the famous (infamous) Dreal Deal touch with Ronan McNally.
They are the trainers where some value can be gained from the prices because trainers like those are maybe not so much ignored but thought less of because they are not a Mullins or a Nicholls. But the aforementioned trainers, and quite a few more that i watch, are more than capable of getting a horse ready for the day. Its just a case of watching and waiting and trying to work out their plan. Sometimes i time it right and other times i get it badly wrong. But when i do get it wrong, it doesnt neccesarily mean i have lost money. It just means the bugger has gone and won on the outing BEFORE i thought it was going to.
For me, it is all about specialising. I concentrate on jump racing only but my speciality is Northern jumps. For instance, if Ascot jumps was on today and Hexham, my focus would be purely on Hexham. Similarly, if Newbury jumps and Sedgefield were on, it would be Sedgefield for me. Its been that way for many, many years now and it always will be. I dont suppose Simon Nott reads these threads but if he read this one he would remember an interview he did with Andy Smith the West country bookmaker. With him being from down that way, i remember him saying that his forte was Exeter, Taunton, Wincanton etc etc. He specialises on his neck of the woods.

It works and always has done. Each to their own.

 

[Quixall Crossett]

I'd landed on:

Vintage Icon - Softer ground perhaps would have been better, but it is what it is and true ground preferences are unknown as yet. 2nd run after a wind op and P first time. I spotted VI making a little headway from well out the back approaching the last quarter of the 3 mile race at Plumpton last time when 125-1, suggesting there might be some latent ability (as you would expect from a Sixties I). That was a short-lived effort, but he seemed to be handling the goodish ground there OK. Carrying a bag of feathers today. 66-1 best last night. That seems to have halved with a few overnight but think I saw 40 and 50 still in places. Could easily go the other way during the day.

Ben Case's Stargazer Belle looks like she might have some ability, based on a couple of maiden hurdle runs last spring. Lightly raced since. Out of Telescope and a Kings Theatre sired mare that was fairly useful at class 3 level, she might have something under the hood. Would have wanted at least 33-1 though, currently 14s and 16s.

Good luck mate and to all the others who have given a view. I just couldnt pin one down so once again i will be an interested spectator.

 

[barjon]

If I had to pick something it would be Dreadpoetssociety. It’s his handicap debut, he has been “highly tried” in Class4 and is down in Class today and he has been running over 2 miles and up in distance (2m5f) today. All the ingredients of a plot

 

[yorick]

I'd landed on:

Vintage Icon - Softer ground perhaps would have been better, but it is what it is and true ground preferences are unknown as yet. 2nd run after a wind op and P first time. I spotted VI making a little headway from well out the back approaching the last quarter of the 3 mile race at Plumpton last time when 125-1, suggesting there might be some latent ability (as you would expect from a Sixties I). That was a short-lived effort, but he seemed to be handling the goodish ground there OK. Carrying a bag of feathers today. 66-1 best last night. That seems to have halved with a few overnight but think I saw 40 and 50 still in places. Could easily go the other way during the day.

Ben Case's Stargazer Belle looks like she might have some ability, based on a couple of maiden hurdle runs last spring. Lightly raced since. Out of Telescope and a Kings Theatre sired mare that was fairly useful at class 3 level, she might have something under the hood. Would have wanted at least 33-1 though, currently 14s and 16s.

I've had a look at that last race, C, and three things occur:

• Being a SI horse (St leger winner), I would think that 14f would be an ideal trip.
• In that last race, he made progress down the hill last time around, that's round about the 2m 4f stage, before dropping back
• He has one of the apprentice finds of the season aboard
• He's blinkered for the first time

I think he's a live Ew contender, mate, given all that.

 

[chaumi]

...and best around 22 now

I've just been through the cards in full...and have a list of no less than 12 'plodders' across various (class 4 or lower) races. One of those days where I could do my b0llocks...or get one winner and it's all roses. The best call would be to leave them all alone, I suspect. But let's see. Small stakes unless the first one goes in.

Can't list them all, the garden is calling.

But Eighty Two Team might go OK if up around 33-1 if fit enough (was running OK after a break last May when unluckily jinking to follow a horse that had taken the wrong course). And Ben Haslam might be up to something with A Wave Of The Sea (actually, this is a Class 3). Have a look at the last 7 or 8 runs (distance) then note the Grade 3 run at 2 miles Tipperary. ofc it could just be a desperation 'what are we going to do with Wavey' run. But we know JP sends them up for a change of air sometimes, and occasionally it works.

The others are all total left-field.

 

[Quixall Crossett]

...and best around 22 now

I've just been through the cards in full...and have a list of no less than 12 'plodders' across various (class 4 or lower) races. One of those days where I could do my b0llocks...or get one winner and it's all roses. The best call would be to leave them all alone, I suspect. But let's see. Small stakes unless the first one goes in.

Can't list them all, the garden is calling.

But Eighty Two Team might go OK if up around 33-1 if fit enough (was running OK after a break last May when unluckily jinking to follow a horse that had taken the wrong course). And Ben Haslam might be up to something with A Wave Of The Sea (actually, this is a Class 3). Have a look at the last 7 or 8 runs (distance) then note the Grade 3 run at 2 miles Tipperary. ofc it could just be a desperation 'what are we going to do with Wavey' run. But we know JP sends them up for a change of air sometimes, and occasionally it works.

The others are all total left-field.

If you think Fontwell is good, you want to see Sedgefield on Friday. What a card !!!!!

I've started on it already.

 

[yorick]

Its just my type of race mate. Unfortunately, i cant put my finger on any one horse in this race today. But we all have our favourite races or types of race and i would take a card full of races like this any day of the week. For me, these type of races will often throw up a plot, a plan, and so by doing them over and over again, little snippets and/or patterns sometimes emerge and they all get stored in what little brain i have left. I like to watch closely and follow certain types of trainers, those at the lower end of the training ranks. I follow closely the ones whose yards are sponsored by the makers of WD40 so that when the handbrake comes off on "that" day, they are confident that it is in good working order.
I dont bet on the flat but if i did, you would never catch me backing anything trained by the likes of Appleby, Gosden, O'Brien, Stoute etc etc. Similarly, i never touch anything trained by Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls, Elliott etc etc. If i tried to list the big price touches just from the past couple of years you would see trainers like Sir Micky Hammond, Ben Haslam, Sam England, Kenny Johnson, Sue Gardner and the likes in the list. And of course, the famous (infamous) Dreal Deal touch with Ronan McNally.
They are the trainers where some value can be gained from the prices because trainers like those are maybe not so much ignored but thought less of because they are not a Mullins or a Nicholls. But the aforementioned trainers, and quite a few more that i watch, are more than capable of getting a horse ready for the day. Its just a case of watching and waiting and trying to work out their plan. Sometimes i time it right and other times i get it badly wrong. But when i do get it wrong, it doesnt neccesarily mean i have lost money. It just means the bugger has gone and won on the outing BEFORE i thought it was going to.
For me, it is all about specialising. I concentrate on jump racing only but my speciality is Northern jumps. For instance, if Ascot jumps was on today and Hexham, my focus would be purely on Hexham. Similarly, if Newbury jumps and Sedgefield were on, it would be Sedgefield for me. Its been that way for many, many years now and it always will be. I dont suppose Simon Nott reads these threads but if he read this one he would remember an interview he did with Andy Smith the West country bookmaker. With him being from down that way, i remember him saying that his forte was Exeter, Taunton, Wincanton etc etc. He specialises on his neck of the woods.

It works and always has done. Each to their own.

Good read, QC