Constitution Hill

There's no chance of him going chasing not as long as Sir Gino has 4 legs and a tail. Nicky has already said the Donnely's gelding's future lies over fences.

he's current 5/1 joint fav with Ballyburn on several books and you can have 20/1 Constitution Hill...good luck to anyone placing that bet
 
I wouldn't back him for anything tbh, and owners and trainers have been known to change their minds - little is ever straight forward with Nicky Henderson, very good trainer though he is.

Fascinating thread and talking point - one shouldn't ever wish one's life away, but roll on the Fighting Fifth!
 
Ballyburn has virtually no chance of ever running in a Champion Hurdle exciting or not.

Lossiemouth is a very good mare but the chances she will line up next season if both Constitution Hill and State Man are on song is highly unlikely

Big difference between beating trees and taking on the Creme de la Creme.

There's always what if's at this time of the year but as things stand I don't see anything taking on the big two unless the wheels come off one of them.
 
Over the years I've discovered that, while working out which horse is going to win the race they're all definitely running in today is often hard, second guessing where connections will run them tomorrow is often harder still.

Constitution Hill will probably stay over hurdles, but his owner was keen to go chasing, has had a wasted season following his trainer's uber-cautious mantra and might just put his foot down at some point - I wouldn't rule it out.

And Ballyburn may well stay at longer trips and/or go chasing, but they might just do an Istabraq with him - I wouldn't rule that out either.

Fascinating year ahead - but then isn't it always?
 
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Ballyburn has been taken out of the 2m novice at Punchestown, so there's not chance they plan to stay hurdling otherwise he'd be running in it.

With it likely that the Turners either goes or becomes a limited novice handicap it'll be either the Arkle or the Brown Advisory for him, Given Willie will almost certainly start him at two miles, and there's nothing to beat him I'd say he'll be Arkle bound. He has noting to split him from given Mystical Power is a pony an dis sure to stay over hurdles, and he doesn't have anything else remotely good enough over the trip. On the ohter hand he has plenty of ammunition for the Browns and the NHC if that race remains.

As for Constitution Hill at 5/2, I think it depends what kind of player you are and what appetite for risk you have. As an antepost and exchange player I'm in the Tanlic camp. The exchange is my friend, and his price gets cut on an entry, so I can have a decent go now, and then when the entry comes I can lay to my stake and let the rest roll. He'll be short odds on wherever he's entered and if you play that way the only risk is if he never raced again. So for my style of betting he's a low risk proposition.
 
Maruco said:
Ballyburn has been taken out of the 2m novice at Punchestown, so there's not chance they plan to stay hurdling otherwise he'd be running in it.
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while i agree that i think, ultimately, Ballyburn will go chasing I don't think Willie keeping him at over 2 miles this week completely rules out a Champion Hurdle campaign
 
I would say that is extremely well argued from Maruco, but the problem is that I've read numerous well-articulated cases why a horse should be targeted in a particular direction over the years only for connections then to make frustrating decisions that defy all logic.

Plus, of course there's a chance any horse will go chasing, not take to it and revert to hurdling.

Fascinating stuff.
 
Maruco said:
Ballyburn has been taken out of the 2m novice at Punchestown, so there's not chance they plan to stay hurdling otherwise he'd be running in it.

With it likely that the Turners either goes or becomes a limited novice handicap it'll be either the Arkle or the Brown Advisory for him, Given Willie will almost certainly start him at two miles, and there's nothing to beat him I'd say he'll be Arkle bound. He has noting to split him from given Mystical Power is a pony an dis sure to stay over hurdles, and he doesn't have anything else remotely good enough over the trip. On the ohter hand he has plenty of ammunition for the Browns and the NHC if that race remains.

As for Constitution Hill at 5/2, I think it depends what kind of player you are and what appetite for risk you have. As an antepost and exchange player I'm in the Tanlic camp. The exchange is my friend, and his price gets cut on an entry, so I can have a decent go now, and then when the entry comes I can lay to my stake and let the rest roll. He'll be short odds on wherever he's entered and if you play that way the only risk is if he never raced again. So for my style of betting he's a low risk proposition.
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On Bally, they have so many horses, I'd not read much into this.

The supreme horses deserve a chance to try reverse that race on arguably more favourable conditions and he is 1/3 for a 75k pot
 
Willie said after his win yesterday that Mystical Power is a Champion Hurdle horse for next season. After Daddy Long Legs facile win yesterday too, he said he'll have a flat campaign, which Willie's usual MO is to keep them over hurdles the following season. Then add in State Man, and the possibility of Lossiemouth also being Champion Hurdle bound. Plus the possibility of a 100% Constitution Hill back next season, who would beat them all.

All things considered when adding in Ballyburn's age, I'd say he won't be wasting a season over hurdles. So barring any jumping issues, I'd say novice chasing is almost certain. The trip is more speculative given they ultimately see him as a Gold Cup type though, but it would be normal for Willie to start a previous season Ballymore/Gallaghers horse out at 2 miles over fences and then work from there.

I'm prepared to back antepost under the assumption that he's an Arkle horse given he won't be beaten over 2 miles and Willie has nothing else for the Arkle that's proven G1 class. But as a precaution I've taken sufficient cover in the Brown Advisory. Willie has Dancing City and Readin Tommy Wrong (who they still think is the better of the two) for staying trips, with Impaire Et Passe a possible to go either way if the Turners is canned in it's current guise. I don't see a genuine G1 alternative horse that Willie has for the Arkle. Zarak The Brave will probably go that way, and so will Ile Atlantique, but they have so much to prove now that he won't rely on them. Plus Zarak and Impaire will be split because of ownership, with Impaire the more likely to be up in trip.

Even if they do see Ballyburn as future Gold Cup horse, I'd say he'll be thinking he has the next couple of season covered anyway with Galopin, and then Fact To File to take over the mantle. That buys at least one season, and possibly two before Ballyburn enters the succession plan.

Cashout is available for both, and so is the exchange to lay off early to free bets or lock in a profit. He'll be odds on every time he runs next season, including at the Festival, and I just see him as an easy antepost money-spinner. For anyone like me that plays antepost, you really have to be getting involved at his current price at some point. 5/1 for the Arkle and 12/1 as cover for the Brown Advisory is unusually generous for a horse that was so far clear of his generation of novice hurdlers. At the moment though the market is factoring in hurdles, but it won't when Willie says something after his Punchestown run, and predicting what will happen ahead of time is half the antepost battle. Those prices will halve or worse this week, and by his first run in November he'll be completely unbackable.

Accepting that Mullins can be hard to predict at times (although not as hard as people think when you follow patterns), if for any reason I'm wrong, I'll just take the hit and move on. The upside though is more than worth it when I believe it's a 90%+ chance of happening. There are 28 Festival races to play in so I can afford to be wrong a few times, but being right a couple of times like this and making the call early at the prices can pay for an entire Festival.
 
The only logical reason that i'd put forward to keep Bally hurdling is to try emulate his dad and Dawn Run

Againist it is the fact that Bally is prob 1 year older than ideal and he will have 2 of the top 3 in the market already

Does anyone else think that Lossie is being completly overblown on what she has done so far?
 
I must have missed all this logic from connections in the 50 years I've been following the game.

Rule nothing in and rule nothing out - and never trust connections to think the same way you do....that's my strategy.
 
Tanlic said:
If I owned Ballyburn and was thinking of his future I'd miss the Arkle which could be the most completive race of the meeting and aim him at the Turners
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The Turners is unlikely to exist in it's current guise next season Tan. the word on the street is that it'll revert to a 0-145 novices handicap.
 
Tanlic said:
If I owned Ballyburn and was thinking of his future I'd miss the Arkle which could be the most completive race of the meeting and aim him at the Turners
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Where is the competition in an Arkle going to come from?

Ballyburn would wipe his hole with the best of the graduating 2m novice hurdlers and not break sweat whilst doing so. He’s head-and-shoulders better than everything else at the trip.
 
granger said:
The only logical reason that i'd put forward to keep Bally hurdling is to try emulate his dad and Dawn Run

Againist it is the fact that Bally is prob 1 year older than ideal and he will have 2 of the top 3 in the market already

Does anyone else think that Lossie is being completly overblown on what she has done so far?
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I read this this morning, puzzled. It took me until now that work our that you were referring to Paddy Mullins and not Flemensfirth.
 
I think it's a safe bet that Ballyburn will be go chasing next season unless something happens to State Man and there is more bad news about Constitution Hill.
 
Couldn't agree more - people spend more time speculating where Mullins will run his horses than he probably thinks about it himself.

Mullins is a VERY good trainer, but "genius?"

He had to have it explained to him that one of his horses had a better mark in the UK than in Ireland because the two countries calculate French marks differently.

And no reason why he should know either tbf - like most, he probably simply crosses life's bridges when he comes to them.

I doubt if he's planning, let alone finalising, Cheltenham Festival 2025 targets yet or obsessing about it as much as the ante-post brigade on racing fora do.
 
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