The golden ball has appeared in the sky over Norwich and the sky is a hazy blue. Never to be trusted as a reliable friend, I expect it to fold away before long. Just a quick blogging before I venture into the garden to potter and plant.
Just one meeting today and nothing I'd want to bet on but there are two chases at Market Rasen that I've had a look at and, just to flex my form study muscles, I 'll share some thoughts on them here. Aintree tomorrow so no harm in keeping my eye in, eh?
The 3.00 is an intriguing contest which has left me in all of a spin, really. Anyone who follows these pages regularly will know that Lounge Lizard has been a pet project of mine since his early chasing days so the first horse I noticed here was Dibble Decker whose neck defeat by that horse would seem to be the standout form here. However, It's by no means certain that the bare form tells the real story, which is a little more nuanced. Of course, I backed LL that day and was quite alarmed when it looked like he might lose the race as they sped up the home straight and at the time I can recall thinking that my fellow was making heavy weather of what should have been, in my opinion, a routine task . In retrospect, I think the truth lies between two factors, probably: trainer Daly reckoned that Huntingdon didn't really suit his charge and it's definitely true that DD had improved his form due to the fitting of a tongue-tie and, unlike LL, he loved the track (twice a course winner). That improvement has seen his rating rise to today's 127 and this race will certainly provide his sternest test to date. He finds himself not too far away from some decent types. Certainly the two top-weighted have been plying their trade in Class 2 races and drop in class today. It may be possible that DD can continue the upward curve but it's a tough call to make.
The aforementioned top two are certainly downgraded today and that is a result of a series of below-par performances. Whether they'll be able to be aroused from their recent torpor is the question.
Firstly War Lord. I have, I'm afraid, almost stalked this gelding over the last couple of seasons, having held him in quite high regard previously. Recently, though, I'd had him pencilled as a moody, bad job: has talent but won't apply it. Well, today the stable reach for the blinds in the hope that it will awaken that dormant talent. Will it work? Heavens only knows. If it did, this horse would make light work of his lofty handicap mark. The going won't be a problem and the question of his ideal distance is probably answered by the blinkers; I shouldn't think the trainer would want to waste any possible transformative effect by running over the wrong trip.
The second top-weight, The Big Bite is another whose form has dropped away after being lightly-raced over the last year. If he was to reproduce his Newbury win of last March (good ground, 1st time pieces, fantastic time), he'd be a good thing. The positives are that last time out was probably his best show for some time and the pieces are back on. A negative is that the ground will be too soft, being, as it is, nearer soft than g/sft on the chase course.
Jet Plane seemed to have acquired wings from somewhere when winning, completely out of turn, last time out at Sandown. The trainer told the stewards that he 'Could offer no explanation' for the improved run (You see? It's that easy). If, by any chance, he were to reproduce that form, would he win here? Debateable; it would represent a career best.
Gloire D'Athan would appear to have something to find with Jet Plane on a line through Hudson De Grugy and might prefer a livlier surface.
Blimey. This race, to quote the Churchill phrase, is a "riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma". Anybody's guess.
My Churchillian stab would probably be War Lord. Goodness me, I've forgiven any number of his misdemeanors in the past and to trust him again might make it look like I was trapped in an abusive relationship. Hence no bet in the race but, if I were to be so foolish as to commit money to the enterprise, that's where I would throw it. In the hope that the blinkers would transform the beast. From unconscientious objector to War Lord.
The second chase, at 4.00, has the look of trouble about it. Like the pub at chucking - out time: don't get involved and indeed I will not. I've looked for as long as I care to and to go into chapter and verse over the 'form' of those involved would keep me here all morning and leave the garden unattended. Suffice to say that, if someone threatened to bottle me, I'd have a go at Living's Boy An Co. Two pounds below his last winning mark on soft ground at the course, his first run since a wind operation and looking like a price that would appear to make him a little fancied. That would be an Ew inclination, if I felt at all inclined.
Which I don't
Just one meeting today and nothing I'd want to bet on but there are two chases at Market Rasen that I've had a look at and, just to flex my form study muscles, I 'll share some thoughts on them here. Aintree tomorrow so no harm in keeping my eye in, eh?
The 3.00 is an intriguing contest which has left me in all of a spin, really. Anyone who follows these pages regularly will know that Lounge Lizard has been a pet project of mine since his early chasing days so the first horse I noticed here was Dibble Decker whose neck defeat by that horse would seem to be the standout form here. However, It's by no means certain that the bare form tells the real story, which is a little more nuanced. Of course, I backed LL that day and was quite alarmed when it looked like he might lose the race as they sped up the home straight and at the time I can recall thinking that my fellow was making heavy weather of what should have been, in my opinion, a routine task . In retrospect, I think the truth lies between two factors, probably: trainer Daly reckoned that Huntingdon didn't really suit his charge and it's definitely true that DD had improved his form due to the fitting of a tongue-tie and, unlike LL, he loved the track (twice a course winner). That improvement has seen his rating rise to today's 127 and this race will certainly provide his sternest test to date. He finds himself not too far away from some decent types. Certainly the two top-weighted have been plying their trade in Class 2 races and drop in class today. It may be possible that DD can continue the upward curve but it's a tough call to make.
The aforementioned top two are certainly downgraded today and that is a result of a series of below-par performances. Whether they'll be able to be aroused from their recent torpor is the question.
Firstly War Lord. I have, I'm afraid, almost stalked this gelding over the last couple of seasons, having held him in quite high regard previously. Recently, though, I'd had him pencilled as a moody, bad job: has talent but won't apply it. Well, today the stable reach for the blinds in the hope that it will awaken that dormant talent. Will it work? Heavens only knows. If it did, this horse would make light work of his lofty handicap mark. The going won't be a problem and the question of his ideal distance is probably answered by the blinkers; I shouldn't think the trainer would want to waste any possible transformative effect by running over the wrong trip.
The second top-weight, The Big Bite is another whose form has dropped away after being lightly-raced over the last year. If he was to reproduce his Newbury win of last March (good ground, 1st time pieces, fantastic time), he'd be a good thing. The positives are that last time out was probably his best show for some time and the pieces are back on. A negative is that the ground will be too soft, being, as it is, nearer soft than g/sft on the chase course.
Jet Plane seemed to have acquired wings from somewhere when winning, completely out of turn, last time out at Sandown. The trainer told the stewards that he 'Could offer no explanation' for the improved run (You see? It's that easy). If, by any chance, he were to reproduce that form, would he win here? Debateable; it would represent a career best.
Gloire D'Athan would appear to have something to find with Jet Plane on a line through Hudson De Grugy and might prefer a livlier surface.
Blimey. This race, to quote the Churchill phrase, is a "riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma". Anybody's guess.
My Churchillian stab would probably be War Lord. Goodness me, I've forgiven any number of his misdemeanors in the past and to trust him again might make it look like I was trapped in an abusive relationship. Hence no bet in the race but, if I were to be so foolish as to commit money to the enterprise, that's where I would throw it. In the hope that the blinkers would transform the beast. From unconscientious objector to War Lord.
The second chase, at 4.00, has the look of trouble about it. Like the pub at chucking - out time: don't get involved and indeed I will not. I've looked for as long as I care to and to go into chapter and verse over the 'form' of those involved would keep me here all morning and leave the garden unattended. Suffice to say that, if someone threatened to bottle me, I'd have a go at Living's Boy An Co. Two pounds below his last winning mark on soft ground at the course, his first run since a wind operation and looking like a price that would appear to make him a little fancied. That would be an Ew inclination, if I felt at all inclined.
Which I don't
