Saturdays hopes

Outsider

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Jul 2, 2017
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A very interesting day awaits with the "Whitbread"the standout race.one of my favourite races of the year.been some exciting finishes over the years and the race can change after the last.
Does look wide open as looking at the professional sites they pick about 7 different horses.
Threeunderfive was a horse I thought would win a big race but Nicholls always said he was badly hcapped at the time off145 so I can't back it now off topweight.he has 2 others in it with no chance it appears,but Enrillo who won it 3 yrs ago before being demoted is now well hcapped.fell and pulled up in the last two renewals.Flash collonges is interesting.Yorick pointed out his run in the Scottish national last year,going well until it fell.his 2 runs this time has been poor to say the least,but it's a Nicholls horse we are talking about and blinkers first time replacing cheekpieces.
There are ifs and butts about a lot of them so you pay your money and take your chances.
The Mullins horses look good but both got beat in the Irish national but maybe better going will suit better especially Nick Rockett.
Euro has a cracking a/p price with Amirite whom I backed a/p for the Kim muir but it didn't run.
Henry Daly has his horses in rude health but I just can't back my two old favourites Fortesque and Rapper.
I backed LE MILOS 11/1 A/P but mainly because it looks a Skelton plot.won the hennessey and this time around has run three times all over hurdles.
Yorick likes Annual invictus but I don't think he will stay.
4 outsiders put up on sporting life and racing TV are
Courtland,weveallbeencaught, certainly red and Bangers and cash.
I never thought I would put a 12 Yr old up for a race like this but I think SAM BROWN (took 33s) looks to have an outside chance.
Won 2 veterans chases and stayed on really well last time behind Cruz control.
Now onto my 2nd favourite horse.KITTYS LIGHT.what a star he is and he's the one they all have to beat.but this year i'm not so confident like i was last year.he raced up with the pace for most of the National and that might have left a mark even though he's done it all before.
William Hill gave me an epic boost,I know its only a fiver,but 7.5/1 kittys light will do.
So for me it's 4
Kittys light 7.5/1
Le milos. 11/1
Sam Brown. 33/1
Flash collonges 40/1

I'm taking a chance tomorrow on DASHING ROGER 205L 30/1 Betfair.
Drawn badly last time and used up energy to make the running and weakened out and eased and finished 20th newbury spring mile.still 2lb higher than its last win but the going suits and with only9 runners I thought the price was too generous to miss.

The 245 Haydock is a good race and Earls is a worthy favourite. 2nd beaten a nose last week when I backed it 😭
Boardman and Rhoscolyn are 2 horses I follow but I think(hoping) they will both need the run.
But the one I've plumped for is ZIP 8/1 back to his winning mark plus a 3lb claimer and the going is perfect.

520s ICARE ALLEN 50/1 was travelling ok over 3m in the pertemps until a serious blunder 2 out and then went to jonjo's and never got into any rhythm last time.maybe he's gone at the game or maybe they will get a few pounds off his back for another go at the pertemps but at 50/1 i have to have a couple of quid on.
CLEAR ANGEL 515R ran on well last time and although Helter Skelter could turn the tables considering he veered off left I like CA.
Some of my cliff horses are running tomorrow that I will be keeping my eye on for the future.
Mr wagyu
Get shirty
Diamondsonthehill

Good luck.
 
I took 80/1 Courtland earlier in the week because it was top on RPRs at the time. It still is but my own figures make the current 33/1 more appropriate. Still, I’m happy enough to have it onside and it will act on good ground. The front few in the market are worthy of their places there so I won’t be backing many, if any, of them other than Le Milos. I think Skelton is doing a Langer Dan with this one. Nick Rockett was a strong favourite for a massively strong Irish National and maybe didn’t act in the very heavy ground but I noted at the time that he didn’t get a good tactical ride. That might have been deliberate with the horse acting as decoy for Minella Cocooner which ran very well in third and his rating puts that form into context. Amirite was a strong favourite for last year’s Irish National and has presumably had issues but will be very dangerous if as good as thought back then. Flash Collonges is another outsider worth having onside. He was among the favourites for last year’s Scottish National off 4lbs higher and could be one of those types that Frost gets into a nice rhythm.

I also have SB high up the figures so we're thinking along similar lines, Outsider.

Edit - FWIW, I'm also keen(ish) on Edwardstone today. I think 12/1 is 'way too generous.
 
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I think today is a punter friendly card at Sandown at even though it is not my usual style I am going to have a decent bet on the Willie Mullins good thing double El Fabiolo and Impaire which pays about 11/4.
 
Skelton "We tried him back over hurdles this season because we felt he was well handicapped"

Yes, over fences!

💩
 
A good days racing wasn't it and quite happy with my day.
DASHING ROGER was 5th at 13/2 only beaten just over 2L 30/1 last night was too big even though I lost.
EARLS won well and i got 18/5 and ZIP was 2nd.i should have done the forecast.
SAM BROWN .i lost my money but what a run to get 6th.i tried to back it sp 7 places with sky but they wouldn't take the bet.
Flash collonges was disappointing but it was a gamble as he had run like that the last twice.
Le milos ran OK just not good enough.
Kittys light.i think the National run did for him as I half expected.

Don't know what to make of Icare Allen.his run in the pertemps was promising until a bad mistake and has now run poorly twice.is it to get a few pounds off for next year or has it gone at the game.
 
semi-interesting note about Icare Allen. Robert Dunne...not ridden him before...but RD is 2 from 9 (plus a 2nd and 4th) when riding for JP in Ireland. Not so good from (I think) 4 rides in England. Prob worth looking what horses/races they were, but I don't have the facility.

So, the booking doesn't appear to be a negative. Might mean something.
 
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