Form Study or Maths

Thank you for that response and yes, that's all perfectly reasonable - I don't want to be on a forum called "Talking Horses" and query why others are, err, "Talking Horses!"

I guess my only feeble "contribution" was to suggest nothing out there that everyone can see will help you win long term.

I must admit that right at the start of this thread I privately thought similar to drone - they're (form and maths) not mutually exclusive.

FWIW the most successful pro punter I ever met described all betting as "essentially maths" - that said, he used maths to interpret and evaluate the copious amount of form study he did.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Thank you for that response and yes, that's all perfectly reasonable - I don't want to be on a forum called "Talking Horses" and query why others are, err, "Talking Horses!"

I guess my only feeble "contribution" was to suggest nothing out there that everyone can see will help you win long term.

I must admit that right at the start of this thread I privately thought similar to drone - they're (form and maths) not mutually exclusive.

FWIW the most successful pro punter I ever met described all betting as "essentially maths" - that said, he used maths to interpret and evaluate the copious amount of form study he did.
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My attitude is that it is not how much I can win but how little I lose. Thats why I like small bets on each way lucky 15's because I don't care if I lose but sometimes I can win big
 
watching loads of replays and using what you see with your own eyes works for me, I believe Timeform man Mr Bull used to say "never bet on anything that can talk" however Betfair was not around then which in my eyes changed everything.
 
Ian_Davies said:
"Thank you for that response and yes, that's all perfectly reasonable - I don't want to be on a forum called "Talking Horses" and query why others are, err, "Talking Horses!"

I guess my only feeble "contribution" was to suggest nothing out there that everyone can see will help you win long term.

I must admit that right at the start of this thread I privately thought similar to drone - they're (form and maths) not mutually exclusive.

FWIW the most successful pro punter I ever met described all betting as "essentially maths" - that said, he used maths to interpret and evaluate the copious amount of form study he did."
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I thought the same thing, I.E, it's not one or the other. There's always maths involved in betting, and form study is just more algebraic.

I also believe in something called luck. When you get some, enjoy and embrace it. If making it pay were a precise science bookmakers wouldn't be around.

Granted, backing a horse is not like lumping on a roulette wheel, but people are kidding themselves, if they think they can take luck out of every equation or bet.
 
Marb, off topic, but why are you still a 'Journeyman' after 7,438 posts?

Have you not written a winner yet? :)
 
I know, Drone. I think I've treat this place like my Facebook.

I've started and ended more folks and accounts than than a dodgy hedge fund or Bitcoin boss.

I think this latest reincarnation was created in about 2018, hence the 'journeyman' title?

It's been a journey though man, that's for sure.
 
sunshine said:
Tanlic... If you had been on Betfair or Betdaq a number of years ago you would have seen them.. I have no intention of looking for links.
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I joined Betfair and Betdaq 20 years ago and was a member on the Betfair Community under the name Salmon Spray which hasn't changed
 
Ian_Davies said:
There is no edge to be had from any stat or factor that is in the public domain, thus accessible to all.
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Completely untrue in my experience. Weighing the most relevant pieces of information (which change race to race, as does the importance) to find value is definitely possible. In the past I could have been convinced that Befair SP was fairly rational but that isn't what I've observed.

Sure, no-one is getting filthy rich using a simple methodology and experience, but it can definitely be a profitable hobby.
 
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Fair enough - we can only speak from personal experience.

I have always felt that things not universally known, hence not factored into betting markets, confer edges and that seems to me to be a reasonable and logical supposition to make.

But I am also a believer in "if it works for you, it works for you" so each to their own.
 
I think it boils down to context and interpretation of that publicly available data.

Obviously the less commonly known data will confer an edge of sorts but only if interpreted appropriately.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't have any specific type of race in mind, granger. I just like to have all possible info available to me.

I do recall quite a number of years ago posting after See More Business was beaten on his seasonal debut that he did very well to get as close as he did after making a litany of mistakes through the race; that he'd have won a mile with a clear run. I took 33s for the Gold Cup after that in the belief a clear round would see a good 10lbs improvement. The rest, as Charlie Nicholas would say, is Geography.
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I had see more business as well.not 33s though.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I guess my only feeble "contribution" was to suggest nothing out there that everyone can see will help you win long term.
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I elaborated a bit on my last post. I think you overestimate how rational horseracing markets are, especially before the algorithm bettors get stuck in on the exchanges and even then some knowledge of 'soft' factors can be key.
 
Like I said, if something works for you, it works for you and, by the same token, if something else works for me it works for me.

Those were my thoughts and each to their own.
 
And there was me thinking that internet fishing and wind ups went out with flared trousers.

Bragging about: bet size, how much you win at this game, sequences of winners you've "put up," does any of this grandstanding (what other word for it is there?) put so much as an extra penny in your pocket?

Winners tend to quietly win, those determined to show others how bloody clever they are (or think they are) well, draw your own conclusions about them.

If someone else wins a sum it doesn't make me any worse off, if someone else loses a sum it doesn't make me any better off (well, unless they lost it directly to me) so I couldn't begin to care tbh.

Statistical betting models tend to be form based - what else would they be based on? Your aunty's maiden name? - anyway, they are a statistical/mathematic evaluation of form analysis factors the market isn't currently taking sufficient account of, so maths and form are intertwined.
 
Man has been trying to beat the odds with form books sums and even trends but so far no one has...Sure some made it pay for a while but the only way to beat them is be one of them. I pulled off the biggest stroke ever seen on a Scottish racecourse...my best friend bought it trained it and ride it and it had sfa to do with anything other than knowing the time was right...for those few years we made a small fortune. I doubt if JP gave much thought to sums when under the advice of Jonjo had his balls on Dawn Run and hasn't looked back since without anything other than advice from his manager jockey and trainers...so please don't tell me about these great gamblers who are anything but..some of their money might have come from a lucky spell gambling but once established the wrote books sold online tips charged for interviews etc and that is why today they are still around. Got sfa to do with maths
 
Tanlic said:
but so far no one has...the only way to beat them is be one of them.
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Neither of these statements are true - I know numerous long-term successful punters, who seldom, or never, relied on inside information, and I've known bookmakers who went skint because they were too lazy to put the work in and figure out which were the favourites to lay.
 
walsworth said:
At the end of the day, it helps if you are a born lucky bugger!
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Couldn't agree with you more..
If I hadn't met Donal Nolan in my local pub I would never have gotten involved within the walls of racing. He took me racing, took me to Cheltenham, talked me into riding out introduced me to my late great friend Tony Charlton who taught me so much about how the game worked...it really is just your luck as is betting...a good eye helps but nothing can prepare you for a City of Troy...not only did I lose my entire bank I had uploaded the same amount again and lost that too...so it's back to the drawing board after a great season just went belly up
 
Ian_Davies said:
Neither of these statements are true - I know numerous long-term successful punters, who seldom, or never, relied on inside information, and I've known bookmakers who went skint because they were too lazy to put the work in and figure out which were the favourites to lay.
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the difference is they depend on guess work we left nothing to chance...as an example you ever heard of Tarqa? Probably not. Trained by Charlotte Postlethwaite under permit who didn't know one end of a horse from the other. Her husband Ronnie better known under his bookmaking name Ronnie Foster crack a plan I became privy to. The plan was simple get the then biggest loser in horse racing TR.to back the horse of course at 33/1 and 20/1 know his book would not send it back as TR would lose whatever he might win within days. Once the money was on Ronnie and his many contacts hammered the horse on course driving the price down to 7/2 Ridden by Tony Charlton who had been a huge part in the horses prep was never out of a canter and the horse strolled home by 30 lengths...He pulled off a similar stroke with Abandoned Warrior again ridden by Tony. Soon After Ronnie set up training in the the South of France. Sure bookies can go skint half of them don't have a pot to piss in. We pulled off a stroke in the first race on a Monday and half of them offered cheques or asked for time to pay...to be fair everyone did ...I still have 3 very well placed trainers but I never ask any of them for info....I simply don't have any right to know but occasionally one comes up in conversation but that's about it. Now I rely on video watching more than anything. but sums,..I really got a lot more to do with my life than spending hours on end trying to work out winners with maths...I let my pal Dessie do that and back his when I think he is on to something
 
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