Think your list is looking pretty sound, Paul.
Biggest thing to remember is that for some horses (and riders), Jumping round Cheltenham is a big ask and they won’t have tackled fences as big most point course fences are a lot less imposing). So any horse with NH experience does have an advantage for me. That said there are some very sound jumpers here and I wouldn’t rule a horse out just because it hasn’t run on a Rules course.
4.35 Fier Jaguen was a cert last year and did it despite jumping violently to the right. His jumping is much straighter this year and at odds on, bookies aren’t taking any chances. Caryto des Brosses is consistent but held by the fav. A decent ew price is A Jet of Our Own whose trainer, Nickie Shepherd is pretty damn good.
5.10 Best race of the night for me. Wolf Walker is owned by friend and he’s seriously impressed this season with three wins around Larkhill. He’s only five and a few people have told the owner he’s going too early but I said “what does Will think?” To which he replied, Will thinks he’s ready. The fav, Iskander Pecos has winning Rules form last twice. But he got beaten easily at Badbury Rings in November by Another Furlough who’s better value and I think it’s just down to trainers (Hannah Roache is basically JJ O’Shea in disguise). I think Another Furlough is value so long as he doesn’t pitch at a downhill fence and come down which he did at Cotley last year behind Paloma Blue (he wouldn’t have beaten him) but I’m keeping everything crossed for Wolf Walker.
5.45 Yippee Ki Yay (yes you need to add the “motherf*cker” after saying it a la Die Hard!) another from Mrs Shepherd, jumped poorly last time but I’d put that down to the Exeter bog that day as he was fine the time before and he impressed me when he won at my local point in January. Jetaway Joey has had one run after over a year off which usually indicates to me it’s had a leg. Comes from the all conquering Ellis/Andrews team so he’s a danger. I know little of Jeux d’Eau other than that he beat a decent type last time. Polish is trained by Fergal O’Brien who’s horses are in better form than when he last ran.
6.20 Premier Magic ran like a drain at the Festival but I think Bradley’s horses were a bit out of form mid season compared to normal. Fairly Famous sluiced in last year but hated the ground at Wetherby in Feb. Could be an interesting match. Deise Aba had class under Rules including a fair run in the Kim Muir and he was second in a X country here. I really liked Mr & Mrs Ginger Red Spice Bulls horse Lift Me Up last year but it bombed out here. Two runs this year including an easy win over Caryto des Brosses last time. Quintins Man...never wins when I think he will and always does when I don’t....one of those!
6.55 Regatta de Blanc I just love. A lot of people were shocked that she lost her unbeaten record at Newbury but she was beaten by Secret Investor who himself is some Newbury specialist (he beat Clan des Obeaux and was second to Native River there!) so it was a pretty good run imo. I’d be disappointed if she doesn’t win and Biddick has chosen to come here to ride her (who he also trains) and Wolf Walker rather than go to Punchestown to ride Famous Clermont, his Aintree Foxhunters winner...that’s got to tell you something?
7.30 Law of Gold probably deserves to be fav on his win in this here last year and he’s guaranteed to stay. I do like Master Templar who won well at Cotley last time and I wouldn’t write off Coup de Pinceau who won this two years ago before Syd Hosie did a bit of rules racing with him. Now trained by jockey George Hiscock, he took down Dr Rhythm over 3m4 the time before last and needs an extreme trip to be seen at his best. He’s value ew for me. D’Jango too should see the trip out.
8.05 This is probably between Go On Chez and Rebel Dawn Rising. Esports de Guye beat Famous Clermont at Wincanton but yards horses were quiet at that time so I wouldn’t take as literally. He had fair form with Venetia but presumably had issues when moved to Nicholls as he bled last time for him. Not the biggest fan of his jockey either but he could win just based on class.
That’s me lot! This is only a rough guide than bona fide winners!