Copied from my preview:
I have to back Natural Scenery and, to be honest, if she were trained by Charlie Appleby I’d be all over her like the proverbial but SBS’s runners didn’t do too well as Ascot last week and that leads me to be more cautious. I reckon the mare has been trained for this all year and Hanagan catches the eye as a jockey booking but I just have too many doubts about the trainer’s form.
Officially best in is Lagostovegas (5lbs) following her Ascot win for which she was raised 10lbs. A slowly-run marathon on fast ground might be quite a different test from this Tapeta surface and I’m not sure the Ascot form is as strong as the official handicapper believes. If he’s right she’d be about 122 in the table. Clever Cookie has been on my radar for this for some time. He’s run in a couple of races for which I’ve done ratings this season and it’s always been on my mind that this has been the plan. He shouldn’t beat Natural Scenery on last year’s form, though. The +p runners and sleepers should present the biggest dangers. Of the former, Withhold was extremely impressive in the Cesarewitch on his second run for Charlton but I wonder if he is being prepared for the Ebor or maybe the Melbourne Cup. He’ll need to go up the ratings probably for the former and certainly for the latter but a win at York would solve the Australian issue. Amazing Red also impressed last time and holds a Goodwood Cup (G1) entry. That suggests he’s regarded as at least a 110 horse. I’ve rated Sir Chauvelin as equalling his previous best last time but my gut tells me the form is better than that, in which case he is on a curve and has the potential to run a big race. The sleepers, apart from Natural Scenery and Clever Cookie, are Soldier In Action and Curbyourenthusiasm. Soldier In Action got a strange ride behind Amazing Red last time but has suggested more than once this season that the old ability is still there. Curbyourenthusiasm has a similar profile and has been on the receiving end of some highly ineffective tactics but might have won the Queen’s Prize but for a typical show-off Spencer ride. He’s 9lbs lower than when only 8/1 for the 2016 Goodwood Cup and later gave Watersmeet 6lbs and a beating off 105. He’d have a serious chance on that form.