Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

[Desert Orchid]

YORK EBOR HANDICAP - This is another prestigious handicap race which I've had a provisional look through. I'll just cut to the chase and put forward the horse I believe can get there to run well on the day. TEODORO looks to still be improving: He's trained by Tom Dascombe, has slowly worked his way up the handicapping ranks, and ran creditably when finishing in fourth place when 3/1 favourite at Haydock the last day. This was his first real attempt at top handicap level so it was no disgrace to finish fourth. His overall profile shows he can win at different distances and can win from different race positions too, when being held up or alternatively racing prominently. These attributes put him in good shape for a crack at The Ebor. He didn't have the turn of foot in the closing stages, (over 1M4F), but my feeling is that he'll improve for a stronger pace and the step up to 1M6F.

So there you have it - The York Ebor winner in three weeks, currently available at a pony 25/1!

I'll be having a few coins on in the next week or so.

All the best with that, marble. It's a bit early for me to be looking at the race although I have a few on my radar without actually doing my figures. I'll need to check out this Teodoro. It isn't on my radar for anything. It might be 25/1 on the day though.

Or it might not! As I said elsewhere about Silent Echo, it was my ante-post fancy for yesterday at 25/1 but I wasn't sure it would make the cut so forgot about it and expected it still to be 25/1 when I started looking at the race the other day. I was pretty shocked to see it sitting at about 10/1 and that killed off any interest for me. It would have needed to be among my top ratings to interest me at that price. It wasn't far off but others attracted me more.

[Marb]

Yeah I like Teodoro for reasons explained, just ticks a few boxes really. Funnily enough they are both on identical marks, Cosmelli and Teodoro. Despite the rich vein of form Outsider is in, I know which I prefer!

[Outsider]

Yeah I like Teodoro for reasons explained, just ticks a few boxes really. Funnily enough they are both on identical marks, Cosmelli and Teodoro. Despite the rich vein of form Outsider is in, I know who I prefer!

Hee hee,im going to have to have a look at Teodoro.Cosmelli doesnt owe me,he won the race i wanted him to so anything else is a bonus.
Interestingly he was for sale after the silver plate.
Horse racing sometimes doesnt make sense and confuses me.cosmelli was rated less than WITHOLD but carried more weight(obviously)
But ran faster race than withold.
The bha put cosmelli up more than withold,withold is favourite for the melbourne cup and cosmelli is 33/1 for the ebor.discuss.
Wouldnt it be nice marble for other members to join in.except for Dessie theres not a lot of discussion.
As you say theres times youspend a lot of time talking to yourself on this forum.
Im on another forum thats just the same.i joined this one because of how many members there are but its no better for discussion.
I was surprised to see aEUCHEN GLEN not entered.

[Marb]

I was surprised to see aEUCHEN GLEN not entered.

Out for the season, injured matey. According to Matt Chapman anyway...

[Outsider]

Out for the season, injured matey. According to Matt Chapman anyway...

Cheers mate.pity that.

[2017diary]

Re joining in

Poss some like me on here who enjoy their racing but (in my case anyway) are not wanting to post guesses masquerading as selections. My contributions will tend to stay at proffering thanks and encouragement & keeping any negative thoughts to myself - 'fraid that's about as good as it gets.

[Outsider]

The entries are made for the ebor,but what about hcap marks,will they be as now or could they be adjusted for bad runs or wins etc.
Does anybody know.

[Desert Orchid]

Re joining in

Poss some like me on here who enjoy their racing but (in my case anyway) are not wanting to post guesses masquerading as selections. My contributions will tend to stay at proffering thanks and encouragement & keeping any negative thoughts to myself - 'fraid that's about as good as it gets.

I think responses like this should be welcome. There are threads/topics I won't join in because they don't interest me enough or I don't feel I can offer a meaningful opinion on.

The majority of members here prefer the jumps and discussion will pick up around late October.

I'm bi-codal, to coin a new word. I'm equally inept under both codes. Not many people are less ept than me!

But remember too that ante-post punting in general is in serious decline. I too a renewed interest this season and it has cost me a fair bit. I won't be doing it again other than on rare occasions when I feel compelled to follow up an interesting find in the form book, usually this happens when something posts a rating that I KNOW is at least on a par with an average winning performance in the race in question.

[Desert Orchid]

.

[Desert Orchid]

The entries are made for the ebor,but what about hcap marks,will they be as now or could they be adjusted for bad runs or wins etc.
Does anybody know.

Weights have been out for a wee while, I think:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards...63/at-a-glance

Weights are as they are now barring penalties. Future rises or falls won't impact. So if something comes out and shows improved form without winning it won't affect its Ebor mark. If it wins (barring apprentice races, I think) it carries the penalty. Likewise if it drops in the ratings it will be off its old mark.

[Desert Orchid]

I've just had a look at the Ebor ante-post market.

There are 42 horses listed before you get to a 33/1 shot and the favourite is generally 5/1. It might end up twice that price on the day.

Waste of time.

[Marb]

Excellent thread but could someone please correct the spelling in the thread title.

Done.

[Marb]

Oh and Solomon Grey will win The County everyone ahahaha...

[Marb]

I hear what your saying about often there being no advantage to backing anti-post as opposed to on the day, DO. However, in this particular instance, I'd argue Teodoro will go off a single figure price, or thereabouts, as his profile is very strong and it doesn't take a form book expert to know that's he'd have a live chance. I'd also argue, that with this being the creme de la creme of staying handicaps in the North, the entries at this stage have so many quality horses in, that it essentially creates value on a few of them.

[Marb]

That said, I'm in no great hurry to back Teodoro, but will do at some juncture. I like to get my posts down on here if I fancy one, and am quite liberal in this way. I'm sure in the same situation a few would wait til five days before the race, but there you go. Each to their own.

[Desert Orchid]

I had a quick look at Teodoro. To be honest, I'm not sure he'll even run. I don't see any room for encouragement in his pedigree that a step up in trip will suit. He's already been beaten - and not necessarily improving - off his Ebor mark of 101. If you believe he wasn't trying last time, which is unlikely given the trainer and jockey's record at the track, then a case could maybe be made but I suspect last time out was his target for the first half of the season and they'll be trying to get his mark back down ahead of an assault on a decent pot later on, probably back at Haydock.

[Outsider]

Ive had my fingers burnt a few times but 33/1 gifted master made up for it.
As i had a good day yesterday ive just done one the Ebor after he finished last yesterday and has an OR of 103 and is trained by Easterby.
MY REWARD 40/1.a bit of rain wouldnt hurt.ran a cracking race at york last year over 2m and only got beat by Magic Ciircle(gave 2lb)
Magic circle is now rated 117.
I expect my reward will try and lead all the way thats if he can get the lead off a johnson horse.
I havent gone mad,i never do.i know more than anyone the dangers of a/p betting.
I sometimes wonder if its worthwhile as you only get 4 places whereas on the day it will be 6 or 7 places like the stewards cup was yesterday.
So i await your thoughts Marble.and Do.

[Desert Orchid]

The place betting is a valid point regarding a/p betting, outsider.

These were my ratings and thoughts ahead of Saturday's race:


GWD 2.25 QATAR SUMMER HANDICAP (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner £62,250 14 runners 1m6f Good ITV(STALLS Inside)

No.	Draw	Form	Horse	Stats	Days	Age	Weight	Trainer	Jockey	OR	TS	MON (122+)	Notes	RPR
6	6	935-49	Hochfeld	D	14	4	9-6	Mark Johnston	Martin Harley	102	100	127	? p	114
11	12	111394	Watersmeet	D	35	7	9-1	Mark Johnston	Joe Fanning	97	83	127	AN	111
13	5	/48-00	Arch Villain	CD	14	9	9-1	Amanda Perrett	Yuga Kawada	97	104	127	p	121
10	3	866870	Soldier In Action	CD	35	5	9-1	Mark Johnston	Silvestre De Sousa	97	114	123	(127) (131A)	114
1	4	254464	Time To Study	D	21	4	9-10	Mark Johnston	Gerald Mosse	106	90	122	p	115
8	8	051285	Sofia's Rock		14	4	9-3	Mark Johnston	David Probert	99	103	120	(124)	117
9	7	842307	Sir Chauvelin		14	6	9-2	Jim Goldie	Robert Winston	98	105	120	+p	116
2	1	14-288	On To Victory	D	35	4	9-8	Eve Johnson Houghton	Charles Bishop	104	104	119	? p?	114
3	10	655-12	Platitude	CD	28	5	9-8	Amanda Perrett	Adam Kirby	104	81	119	? +p	114
4	11	4-6213	Walton Street	p C	43	4	9-8	Charlie Appleby	William Buick	104	92	119	+p	115
5	13	-30105	My Reward		21	6	9-7	Tim Easterby	Paul Hanagan	103	87	119	? p?	113
7	2	7-4621	Pacify		22	6	9-4	Ralph Beckett	Harry Bentley	100	95	119	?	116
14	14	-52801	Nabunga	t 1	32	6	9-0	Gianluca Bietolini	Stephane Pasquier	96	87	117	?	112
12	9	20-411	Melting Dew	p	29	4	9-1	Sir Michael Stoute	Ryan Moore	97	107	116	p +?	114

This is further testament to the handicapping skills of Mark Johnston. His five entries occupy five of the top six ratings on my figures and any of them could beat the race norm. He reminds me of Jenny Pitman in that respect. She would run certain horses every other week yet when they took in a big ‘un they won as often as not. I’m sure I read some years ago that Johnston gave regular feed to his horses most of the time but gave them ‘premium’ nosh in the days running up to a big race. I’m not sure that’s the case any more. He just seems to run them rather than train them, in such a way that they run well without going up the weights yet he’s able to sharpen them up for when it matters. Then again, maybe I’m just being too saintly towards him…

This is actually a proper race. In addition to the Johnston mob, we’ve got Sir Chauvelin who’s been running well in big races, being perhaps unlucky more than once. He might need a penalty to get into the Ebor. We’ve also got a GIAH in Walton Street for whom nothing went right at Ascot. Other possible big improvers are Platitude and Melting Dew while Arch Villain was fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time.

Most of this field already can beat, or have strong prospects of beating, the norm so if they all run to form something could hit the norm and not finish in the first six. I’m going to give Soldier In Action another go as the main saver since his very best form should be more than good enough. Walton Street will be the main bet but note that if he wins this his penalty will make life difficult in the Ebor; however, Godolphin might have something they fancy more. They have eight other entries with good prospects of making the cut. Arch Villain will carry some sickness insurance at big odds.

You'll see My Reward was some way down the table but there's a possibility he might still be on a general upward curve. On balance, he probably doesn't have the winning of an Ebor off this mark as the norm for that is higher than the norm for the above race but you never know with Easterby!!

When Walton Street was withdrawn I tried to get a half-point on Sir Chauvelin as he was very much on my radar being a '+p' runner but they were off before I could get the oddschecker page up.

[Marb]

On balance, he probably doesn't have the winning of an Ebor off this mark as the norm for that is higher than the norm for the above race but you never know with Easterby!!

Agree with the prognosis. While he's proven himself in class 2's he's no right to win an Ebor on form.

[Marb]

I've just seen C'Est No Mour who was third behind Teodoro two starts ago, is entered at Kempton on Wednesday night.

A bit like Teodoro the last day in The Newton Cup, C'Est No Mour has shown he's a quite a decent horse but has repeatedly failed to have the finishing speed at 1M4/1M6F, but this doesn't necessarily mean he needs stepping down in trip, it means he might need further against, possibly against lesser opposition. so the switch/step up to 2 miles at class four level is very interesting. I'm working under the assumption C'Est No Mour can run on Tapeta. I might be looking to back this come Wednesday night...doubt it'll be 12/1 early price that Sporting Life have him at.