Page 16 of 25 FirstFirst ... 61112131415161718192021 ... LastLast
Results 301 to 320 of 500

Thread: The Road to the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup

  1. #301
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    For me it's shaping up as bang average, like last year's.
    I don't think last years is as bad as you make out - it takes 2 very good horses to go that gallop - going into the race people thought MB was unbeatable.

    I think last years RSA was a bumper edition and if PP shows up on the day like he did last year, he'll take some beating

    ABP is another one who has a good few lbs improvement in him. Look at the form of last years Flogas.

    They have been patient with Sizing John too - ive not given up hope on him
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  2. #302
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,661
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    I don't think last years is as bad as you make out - it takes 2 very good horses to go that gallop - going into the race people thought MB was unbeatable.
    I was one of the ones who thought MB was a good thing. I genuinely expected him to win by clear daylight and all through the race until the last fence still thought it would happen. I still think he's a much better horse than Native River in much the same way that Wayward Lad was a much better horse than Dawn Run and Desert Orchid himself was a vastly better horse than Yahoo (yet I backed Yahoo to win that day).


    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    I think last years RSA was a bumper edition and if PP shows up on the day like he did last year, he'll take some beating
    PP is one for whom I have immense respect. I have a very big rating for his RSA, only 2lbs shy of MB's, and a lot better than many RSAs. I haven't ruled out backing him.

    I'd have to say, nor have I ruled out backing Might Bite again. If the ground ends up decent and I can get 20/1 or even 4/1 place only on the day - which might happen if Hendo keeps leaking negative titbits about him - I'd want some sickness insurance on him.


    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    ABP is another one who has a good few lbs improvement in him. Look at the form of last years Flogas.
    Will do.


    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    They have been patient with Sizing John too - ive not given up hope on him
    Yes, his win is on a par with Native River's in my book. My review at the time:

    3.30 TIMICO CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE (GRADE 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £327,463 14 runners 3m2f70y Good
    RES HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR MON Notes
    1 Sizing John33 7 11-10 Mrs John Harrington60 Robbie Power 167 169 p
    2 Minella Rocco33tp1 7 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill47 Noel Fehily 156 167 p
    3 Native River34p 7 11-10 Colin Tizzard20 Richard Johnson 168 167
    4 Djakadam79 8 11-10 W P Mullins45 R Walsh 165 167
    5 Saphir Du Rheu29 8 11-10 Paul Nicholls44 Sam Twiston-Davies 156 165
    6 More Of That33p 9 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill47 Aidan Coleman 157 162

    I don’t know about you but I sometimes wonder if people who don’t crunch their own numbers see races so much differently. I thought this was an okay race to watch but no doubt plenty will have thought it very exciting. I couldn’t get worked up about it seeing that Smad Place wasn’t asked to race prominently, or that Outlander was never in it, or that Bristol De Mai seemed to meet every other fence wrong, frequently losing ground at them. Even as the race reached its dénouement the presence of Minella Rocco and More Of That had me questioning the value of the form. Cue Card wasn’t even going as well as he can when he did an encore of last year’s fall three out. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he might have rallied up the hill had he negotiated the fence as he can hit a flat spot.

    I’m using Native River as the most likely guide to the form, repeating his mark from both the Hennessy and Welsh National. It means Djakadam was below form but to rate it via him would make Minella Rocco and Saphir Du Rheu uncomfortably high. Were the latter scenario to be the correct one it would mean Saphir Du Rheu would probably just need to negotiate the fences safely at Aintree to hack up there. I can live with that!

    Sizing John’s 169 is bog-standard bang average for a Gold Cup. Coneygree would have had him for dinner. But Sizing John is young enough to have plenty of improvement. Given the first three are all 7yos leaves the door open for all of them to improve further by this time next year so the clouds have silver linings and if the form is better than I’m rating it, so much the better.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th January 2019 at 1:22 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  3. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Danny (30th January 2019), granger (29th January 2019)

  4. #303
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don’t know about you but I sometimes wonder if people who don’t crunch their own numbers see races so much differently..
    Very good post Mo

    I guess anyone who handicaps does see a race quite differently as it's so open to personal interpretation

    For sizing john that gold cup was only his second time at 3 miles so all being well, he could well have improvement in him
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  5. The Following User Says Thank You to granger For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (29th January 2019)

  6. #304
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Sizing John taken out of Leopardstown. Hard to see him in back to his best at Cheltenham.
    The older I get the better I was.

  7. #305
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Sizing John taken out of Leopardstown. Hard to see him in back to his best at Cheltenham.
    Looking that way unless they want his fto to be a Grade 2 or 3 over a shorter trip
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  8. #306
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    At the start of the (2019) year Jessie indicated he could even run over hurdles in his prep. She didn't want him to have too much of a stamina test.

    "Whether he reappears over hurdles or fences, the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup is still very much the plan once all goes well with him."
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  9. #307
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
    Posts
    5,341
    Thanks
    2,209
    Thanked 1,335 Times in 801 Posts
    Blog Entries
    7
    I remember when Looks Like Trouble came back from his injury in 2002 he won 30 lengths in John Bull chase win, then onto Gold Cup when he broke down again. Trainer Noel Chance was p''''d off after race that he did not have the balds to just run the horse in Gold Cup first time back.
    Not saying Jessie could/should/would go that route but she has firepower and facilities at home to get SJ as ready as she wants to, though he may not just be that type of horse.
    Last edited by edgt; 29th January 2019 at 9:17 PM.

  10. #308
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    2,623
    Thanks
    323
    Thanked 299 Times in 206 Posts
    Would you risk a horse that has apparently come back well from a major injury on ground that is perhaps unsuitable. Get it wrong now and that’s it.
    Betfair tonight is 33/1 for SJ to win Gold Cup. If right he’ll be in the mix. There are worse 33/1 punts especially in a market that has both depth and time. So now have two 33/1 shots running for me - Kemboy is tother. Just waiting for someone start a rumour about Native River so I can have all ground conditions covered.
    Last edited by Tout Seul; 29th January 2019 at 11:55 PM.

  11. #309
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
    Posts
    5,341
    Thanks
    2,209
    Thanked 1,335 Times in 801 Posts
    Blog Entries
    7
    The question Tout is would Jessie not get SJ ready at home and go straight to Gold Cup ?
    conditions on the day will either be right or wrong so call it on the day.

  12. #310
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Yesterday's race was run in a marginally slower time and on quicker ground than the 'slow' Savills with both the principals having a hard race. I wouldn't really fancy either for the big one now.
    The older I get the better I was.

  13. #311
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    701
    Thanks
    199
    Thanked 52 Times in 44 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Yesterday's race was run in a marginally slower time and on quicker ground than the 'slow' Savills with both the principals having a hard race. I wouldn't really fancy either for the big one now.
    Amazed to hear the time was slower than the Savills. Must have been very slowly run initially, I look forward to reading Simon Rowlands in the Irish Field on Saturday!!

    Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk

  14. #312
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by littlelad View Post
    Amazed to hear the time was slower than the Savills. Must have been very slowly run initially, I look forward to reading Simon Rowlands in the Irish Field on Saturday!!

    Sent from my SM-G360F using Tapatalk
    Of course, times are notoriously unreliable on different days especially in Ireland where the race distance is given as the same but hasn't been measured to the yard. Just measuring from the replays very roughly the Savills time was 6m 6.5s and the final circuit took 3m 34s. The IGC time was 6m 6.7s and the final circuit took 3m 36s. Make of that what you will.

    Maybe a better measure is The Storyteller. If you have him running the same in both races you can say that Bellshill and Road To Respect have come on 4 or 5 lengths. That would probably be accounted for by extra fitness for Bellshill and RTR avoiding the slips from the Savills.

    Either way, even if he hasn't come on from the Savills, and he is in fine shape at the moment, Kemboy still holds yesterday's duo on the bare form. Cheltenham will be a proper test of jumping and a race to savour even before the Red Mills which should be even more informative than yesterday.
    The older I get the better I was.

  15. #313
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Interesting little stat:
    None of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup had run within 33 days of the big day. The Red Mills Chase is 27 days before the Gold Cup.
    The older I get the better I was.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to archie For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (4th February 2019)

  17. #314
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
    Posts
    5,341
    Thanks
    2,209
    Thanked 1,335 Times in 801 Posts
    Blog Entries
    7
    Tied Cottage 1980 ran within two weeks in a 2 mile chase at Naas; Royal Frolic, Forgive n Forget and Alverton ran at Haydock Greenhall Whitney meet first Sat in March from memory and it worked for team Percy last two years 2017 within 16 days of Pertemps Final and again last year Red Mills.
    Last year it stood to them the way snow came early March and upset a few final spins for folk.

  18. #315
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,253
    Thanks
    265
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    Bregawn & Silver Buck both ran 12 days before a Gold Cup-Hereford and possibly Market Rasen-different Times.

  19. The Following User Says Thank You to LUKE For This Useful Post:

    edgt (4th February 2019)

  20. #316
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    North Cork. Home of steeple chasing
    Posts
    5,341
    Thanks
    2,209
    Thanked 1,335 Times in 801 Posts
    Blog Entries
    7
    No sp returned in either case.

  21. #317
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Cheltenham
    Posts
    3,687
    Thanks
    346
    Thanked 379 Times in 314 Posts
    Think Bellshill is the least likely of the Mullins trio to win it.

  22. #318
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Moscow Flyer Stables
    Posts
    18,886
    Thanks
    831
    Thanked 1,025 Times in 735 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Think Bellshill is the least likely of the Mullins trio to win it.
    He looks a big burly horse. I'd say yesterday will take a bit out of him
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  23. #319
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,657
    Thanks
    742
    Thanked 900 Times in 590 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Interesting little stat:
    None of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup had run within 33 days of the big day. The Red Mills Chase is 27 days before the Gold Cup.
    Going on from this, no Gold Cup winner this century has had his prep race after the second weekend in February.
    Of the 18 winners:
    9 hadn't raced since Christmas week
    6 raced during the second weekend in February
    2 raced mid January (Don Cossack in the Kinloch Brae and Long Run in the rearranged King George)
    1 (Bobs Worth) went straight from the Hennessy on December 1st.
    The older I get the better I was.

  24. #320
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Posts
    13,884
    Thanks
    2,576
    Thanked 4,128 Times in 2,052 Posts
    Sizing John out for season

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •