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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #761
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    3.40 - Brilliant Light 22/1, 6 places - back in form and very well in on older form.
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  3. #762
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    5.00 - Wilderness Girl 40/1, 6 places - debuts for the season and, since the trainer said he kept Dark Shift off the track to preserve his mark for the Hunt Cup (there's a potential spoonerism...), I'm thinking he must have targeted this a long way out and he deploys Harry Davies to reduce the mark even further. She also has a decent draw.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    6.10 - Lil Guff 22/1, 7 places - I put this on the strong form thread and it won last time. I wasn't impressed at the time but the form might actually be better than I thought. I was concerned that she was being caught late but that was over 6f and she drops back to five here for the first time. The trip, track and draw might all play to her strengths. I have to stick with her.

    I've also taken these last three selections in an ew three-cross. Probably chucking good money after bad but if they each sneak into the last paying place the treble alone will pay better than 260/1.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th June 2022 at 11:17 AM.
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  5. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    6.10 - Lil Guff 22/1, 7 places - I put this on the strong form thread and it won last time. I wasn't impressed at the time but the form might actually be better than I thought. I was concerned that she was being caught late but that was over 6f and she drops back to five here for the first time. The trip, track and draw might all play to her strengths. I have to stick with her.

    I've also taken these last three selections in an ew three-cross. Probably chucking good money after bad but if they each sneak into the last paying place the treble alone will pay better than 260/1.
    Raydoun won a few days back btw. I missed it. That FC with Golden Duke would have looked enticing.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'd no idea, chaumi. I didn't get an alert so the tracker must have expired. A bit like my ability to find a winner.
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    The winner-finding ability always revives....it's just a matter of when!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've added Ajero 25/1, boosted to 28s, 5 places and BOG. Could be totally unexposed on the Flat and has hit a nice curve over hurdles.
    From Mr Bailey.............

    This was always the plan for Ajero but I have to say it was one made in the sky. Three runs to qualify but hard to believe we have made it in. It's also very hard to know whether he is well handicapped or not but he is ready to run well. It would be a thrill to be placed and we will be doing our best to do so. On form he must have a great chance..

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    Ascot 5.00 No Nay Nicki 40/1 - Trainer form was poor on selections last run. Ignore that run and the 2 1/4L she was btn by Maljoom giving that horse 2lb, she may be well hcpped?

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    Quote Originally Posted by swedishchef View Post
    Ascot 5.00 No Nay Nicki 40/1 - Trainer form was poor on selections last run. Ignore that run and the 2 1/4L she was btn by Maljoom giving that horse 2lb, she may be well hcpped?
    It could well turn out that yesterday's exploits by the Fahey yard were a pointer to this. He seems fairly bullish in comments published yesterday (I went looking after the Ridler won but failed to pick up on the other runners yesterday)...but I imagine a fair number of the 28 or so others are too!!

    Good luck, Swedish

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    Quite looking forward to the mid-200s on Kelly's D :-)

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Wokingham - Ventura Tormenta 40/1, 7 places - one question just keeps nagging me: why? Why are they running it in this mega-competitive event on its first run for two years, the stable's only runner in the race when they tend to be mob-handed in these races. I think they have a better record in the Stewards' Cup and this might be a prep for that. VT was raised to 107 for winning the G1 Papin as a 2yo and probably wasn't over that when last in the G2 Phoenix Stakes. He came back a bit in the 5f Flying Childers and finished off eased down over seven furlongs. It's all supposin', but supposin' he had come out as a three-year-old and progressed 7lbs? (The weight for age scale says 3yos should improve 16lbs from March to October.) He probably wouldn't be good enough for the G1s and G2s, notwithstanding the fact that he is already a G1 winner, but they've smuggled him in here off 100. He has winning form on Good-Firm and a middle draw which can help tow him into the race... assuming this is a serious target. I can't resist it.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 17th June 2022 at 1:29 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedishchef View Post
    Ascot 2.30 Ivory Madonna 33/1. I have 140.0 win and 7.0, 5 places. Selections sire, dam and dams sire all ran well in 2yo Royal Ascot races. Trainer in form. I did fancy the Gosden runner that beat the selection and have had a saver on her but I believe she will need soft in the going to be seen at her best?
    Great shout, ran very well gor third having missed the break, returned 66/1 as well which was a nice bonus.

    Sent from my SM-M526BR using Tapatalk

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  18. #773
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've added Cadamosto 50/1 (boosted to 60s) for this race. It's O'Brien's only runner and surely won't be allowed to go off anywhere near that kind of price, assuming it turns up on the day. (Hard to imagine Coolmore letting a race of this nature go without a representative in it.) The risks are obvious.
    I think that's a first for me. Doesn't recoup much in the way of overall losses but better than a slap in the face with a wet fish.
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  20. #774
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beef or Salmon View Post
    Great shout, ran very well gor third having missed the break, returned 66/1 as well which was a nice bonus.
    Yes, I thought I'd seen it mentioned. Shout, chef
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    Yes good each ways there DO, well done.

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    Nice, DO

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  26. #777
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Thanks for Flotus and Kelly's Dino
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    What a good day for you D.well done especially with Kelly's Dino.fantastic.

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  29. #779
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Thanks for Flotus and Kelly's Dino
    And Brilliant Light whoever put that up. I missed the price on Ajero so left that alone.
    Struggling to find the posts to quote.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Wokingham

    fiftythousandtoone 33/1

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