Desert Orchid (6th June 2020), reet hard (6th June 2020)
I can't see anyone using Ascot this year as a prep for Epsom. The time-frame is too narrow.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Some one bound to be pleasantly surprised by the improvement in a 3 yo to give it a whirl; just remember the Irish Derby winners through the years back along that ran in King Edward VII Stakes.
Eleanora Duse (11th June 2020), prince regent (26th June 2020)
I've had a fairly cursory look at last weekend's racing and this is where my thoughts are currently heading.
Coronation Cup - I thought Ghaiyyath was visually very impressive and while Angus McNae was fulsome in his praise of the winner, it turns out the overall time was nothing special, presumably down to a combination of factors, including fast ground, tailwind and - possibly - a bias towards frontrunners. The day after the race Charlie Appleby said the winner lost only 5kg in the race (so clearly didn't have too hard a time of it) and Buick talked about the horse's very high cruising speed. I think the form in behind makes an awful lot of sense and, while my own time ratings don't yell 'monster' I think the collateral form can be read very positively. I got the impression AVD was there to run to at least his Derby form. I think Stradivarius was there to run his race but was maybe compromised a bit by trying to chase down the clear leader too soon. He'll still be hard to beat in the staying races that matter. The 117-rated Broome was probably ridden to run close to his true race, which would shed a very positive light on the form but it might make Strad a wee bit high for this distance and AVD a commensurate amount slightly better than I expected him to run. The true value of the form is probably somewhere not far behind those implications.
2000 Guineas - I was gutted that Pinatubo didn't win even though I didn't back him. I really wanted to see him train and remain as far clear of his contemporaries as Frankel had done. Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis is very interesting, though, suggesting that the race was run faster than Frankel's Guineas. The conditions would have allowed that but it's interesting all the same. His figures also suggest Pinatubo was asked too much too soon but his mark-up doesn't suggest he'd have won under a more patient ride. That honour goes to Wichita. My time ratings shine a modest light on the form, in contrast to my immediate impression that we'd just seen a very good race. Kameko's slightly troubled run probably did him a favour, allowing him to conserve energy at a time when others were running inefficiently. I know at least one judge thought Pinatubo was changing his legs a lot and it's possible he's still better than he showed. Neither Kameko nor Wichita will stay the Derby trip and I'm not sure Military March will be good enough although he was probably not seriously expected to peak here. If Pinatubo turned up at Epsom I wouldn't be averse to a punt but the chances are O'Brien has one or two laid out for it.
1000 Guineas - I'm struggling to summon up enthusiasm for the form although I should stress that I haven't looked very closely yet but Love was impressive considering the Oaks trip should suit her much better. It may have been a case of the only good filly running her race with the promise of more to come over further but again O'Brien will almost certainly have at least another one primed to run well at Epsom. I'll look more closely again later in the week.
Lingfield Derby Trial - AVD may have gone on from here to take the Epsom race last year and plenty seemed taken by English King but on my figures he needs to find a lot to have a serious chance. It looked to me like only he and the runner up had a serious chance of winning this race and my time ratings point to a modest performance but probably around average for a Lingfield Trial.
For those interested in Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis, it's available without any need to log in at the ATR site. I recommend you check it out. It's always worth a read even if sectionals aren't your bag.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Observations
Ghaiyyath got an easy lead, and it's been a feature of the season so far how many 'easy leaders' have won their races. Whether that's down to opponents being given an easy introduction is left to your own judgement.
Frankel's Guineas was run on soft ground, and comparing Pinatubo with him is (and was) laughable. Imo P's a good colt, but unlikely to live up to the hype bestowed on him.
I cannot see how Pinatubo was anything else other than exposed last weekend. Made ground up but was clear that he was flattening out pretty tamely in a matter of strides. Will do well to win a group 1 at 3.
Does anybody have any views on Fridays racing at the Curragh?
I have studied the card but would be still be interested in our resident Irish forumites views...
Where has Luke been btw? He hasn't posted for a while.
Come on Slim. What wins on Friday night?
Last edited by Marb; 10th June 2020 at 9:04 PM.
Plenty of people expected him to be overtaken this season so they're understandably feeling justified. My gut - and that's all it is - says he didn't run his race and I will be delighted if future events back my guts.
People with better memories than mine will be able to rattle off the outstanding 2yos who didn't train on but there are plenty of outstanding 2yos who did train on and defied the same kind of people who didn't fancy Pinatubo to do so.
If the figures were saying this was a super Guineas I wouldn't feel as bad but the figures are suggesting that Love would be a match for Kameko with the fillies' allowance.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Colin Phillips (11th June 2020), Eleanora Duse (11th June 2020)
The thing that was noticeable was when he got to Wichita the obvious difference in size. It all suddenly became harder work for Pinatubo to keep pace. The extra month might have been the difference in getting a guineas win out of the horse. I didnt have a bet on the race and didnt have a strong opinion beforehand - except that the gap between Pinatubo and the rest was reducing by Oct-Nov of last year.
I think Ascot and Epsom could be bloodbaths for punters this season.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I have had at look at Tuesdays card. Looks an excellent card.
I'd like to see Oxted hold up and frank the form of the race where he beat Breathtaking Look last week.
What a ride this could be for the young Fallon in the Kings Stand.
Last edited by Marb; 11th June 2020 at 11:38 AM.
We should find out if Highest Ground gets the entry in the 1M4F handicap on Wednesday soon.
Last edited by Marb; 11th June 2020 at 12:14 PM.
Lads
some really good stable tours on this page...
https://bet-master.freeforums.net/th...rs-flat?page=1
Interesting market for the Criterion tomorrow.
It's a race to get stuck into as Limato is opposable on age grounds. IMO Happy Power's run behind Space Blues and Safe Voyage lto is the best recent form on offer and whilst he's 5s at 365, 10/1 is freely available elsewhere.
GL,Euro - though it's hard to see where the pace is coming from. Frankie may well nick it from the front, but not something I'd bet on.