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Thread: Craven Meeting

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    Craven Meeting

    Free Handicap
    Arctic Sound won a strongly run, classy c/d handicap last backend, so no suprise he carries top weight. Ryan Moore rides the other stable entrant but, imo, for nothing more than to ensure a good pace.
    6/1 generally, though I managed better in a couple of places this morning.

    Fielden Stakes
    Crack On finished just behind Western Australia in the Futurity, after the Coolmore horse had stolen about 6l on him with a burst of speed around 3 out.
    That consideration aside, the Gosden horse is more likely to be up for this (only has entries around this trip) while WA is entered in both Derbys, and looks more of a work in progress.
    7/2 generally.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I find 3yo races at this time of year a waste of time trying to second guess. I wish all the best to anyone who spends any time trying to find winners. I'm happy to look later at the form and try and decipher the result.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    3yo handicaps in particular can be nigh on impossible at this time of year as horses that have been backward last season suddenly mature and make a mockery of the form.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I learned that from painful and expensive experience, jinnyj, many years ago. It must be 20 years since I backed anything seriously in a 3yo hcap before royal ascot, unless they've already done something gobsmacking at 3.

    But tomorrow I've backed Tommy Taylor (all-age hcap) at 8/1. I reckon if he's anywhere near his very best form he wins. (Not sure how much I can stress 'if'!)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Can't agree with the above sentiments - at all!
    In the Free Handicap over the past 10 years, there has been just 1 winner @ 25/1; the highest SP from the other 9; just 11/2.
    The 3yo sprint h'cap on the 2nd day shows much the same pattern.
    As with most things racing & betting, if you set off by looking for problems, you're sure as hell going to find them; and that from someone who's been around a while himself.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    Can't agree with the above sentiments - at all!
    In the Free Handicap over the past 10 years, there has been just 1 winner @ 25/1; the highest SP from the other 9; just 11/2.
    The 3yo sprint h'cap on the 2nd day shows much the same pattern.
    As with most things racing & betting, if you set off by looking for problems, you're sure as hell going to find them; and that from someone who's been around a while himself.
    That suggests that the market is the more reliable indicator to the likely outcome of the race than the form, which would back up what jinnyj and I are saying, so are we really disagreeing?

    Also - without knowing the records - I'd suggest there's rarely any more than eight runners in the Free Hcap these days and there's unlikely to be many longshots in the market.

    I stopped studying the race at least 20 years ago as a waste of time but that's my personal experience of it. I think the last winner I backed was Panama Canal back in the 70s. And when was the last winner that made any impact in the Guineas despite the inevitable hype that surrounds a moderately impressive winner?

    Those last points are obviously irrelevant in the big scheme of things. But I do hope you find the winner, reet. As I say, I genuinely admire anyone who can find it in the form book.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th April 2019 at 8:59 AM.
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    Senior Member an capall's Avatar
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    Last time I backed the winner of the Free was Remainder Man in the days when Jesus was still a wee lad.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Never backed the winner of the FH but I did punt Harayir for the 1000 after Diffident beat her in it.

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    ^^^ a forum where forumites post their thoughts & disagree without vitriol - I think I've found Shangri La
    Last edited by 2017diary; 16th April 2019 at 1:39 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    ^^^ a forum where forumites post their thoughts & disagree without vitriol - I think I've found Shangri La
    Not always the case, I can assure you, diary!

    And for all the foregoing I decided to have a small punt in the Free Handicap since I was watching it on TV. I backed Shine So Bright (11/4) but take no credit for it, though, since bouncing about in the back of my head was Simon Rowlands's take on the race in his ATR blog and I'm always one to oppose a short favourite. That's losses on Tommy Taylor (non-trier) almost recouped and I'll probably try my luck again on the other televised races.

    I'd have to say, too, that the Free Hcap panned out like anything but a handicap with them strung out like soft ground hurdlers. Was only the winner fit?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In the Fielden I've taken I'll Have Another at 11/1 w/o the favourite. I was tempted to take it at the full price since The Firm don't seem to mind their short-shots losing trial races but with only two places on offer anyway I'm happy to leave WA out of the reckoning. MJ has a great record in this race and SDS is the jockey trying to win just about every race going.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    That went well...

    At least I was right about WA.

    Well done to Reet with the winner.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Tried to take 40s the Hannon/de Sousa filly in the Nell Gwynn but they kept cutting it. Eventually got 28s, 4 places. Just a shot in the dark really and I wouldn't be surprised if it disappointed here ahead of a big run when it matters. Hannon isn't averse to placed horses at big prices in Guineas.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    but take no credit for it, though, since bouncing about in the back of my head was Simon Rowlands's take on the race in his ATR blog
    Fair play to SR. He also put up Qabala at the longer odds this morning. I decided I couldn't bet her with Atzeni on the other one for the same trainer and couldn't back that either.

    The Hannon filly will come on a ton for the race and will carry some sickness insurance in due course (no Guineas entry). The jockey initially gave the others first run then when she looked like quickening he took a pull and was happy to let her come home under tender handling.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 16th April 2019 at 3:52 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2017diary View Post
    ^^^ a forum where forumites post their thoughts & disagree without vitriol - I think I've found Shangri La
    What do you mean by that you fckin bonehead?
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    In running lay of War Tiger here 2.12,1.37 &1.07.

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    2.12 matched.

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    Dreamfield in the Abernant tomorrow looks a good bet to cover the Easter expenses.

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    Overwatered ground again,no chance that grounds gd/fm fields spreadout like washing the nell gwyn a second slower than the hadicap yet the field were strung out behind a sure sign of false ground as per usual..would be laughable if they put some more water on..

    Another 3mm put on after racing,laughable stuff this is worse than last seasons farce gd/fm ground never to be seen ever again...
    Last edited by gigilo; 17th April 2019 at 1:24 AM.

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    1:50. Alfie Solomon's. He's been castrated and it can make all the difference.

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