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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #861
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    Good luck Des glad to see you putting up Art Mauresque I put it up earlier in the week on the Aintree thread but I have to say I've been put off a little by testing conditions. I haven't got a single on him but he's in plenty of e/w doubles with a fair few National Fancies (It was actually a permed Trixie with Kings Socks yesterday but that sod bit the dust) So I'd be happy to see him win.

    I have a fairly light day today but I do like Jester Jet 25/1 in the first. Put up a fantastic effort for a long way when behind Arthurs Gift at Cheltenham over 3 mile just failing to last home in testing conditions but put up a big figure. Was dropped back to 2m4f where I really fancied it in a mares race but I personally thought the ride was pathetic as they went at a crawl and the Jockey just seemed happy to sit rather than to make use of the horses stamina. I'd hope they go hard here and if so I think Jester Jet has a cracking chance.

    I put up Le prezien earlier in the week I think there is 20's still available. If his jumping holds up I still think that is a fair price although I have a bet on the nut at 33's as I think he's an all or nothing job. I.e his jumping holds he runs big, his jumping doesn't hold he finishes well beaten.

    I was going to put up Mystifiable in the Topham but the price has long gone and with conditions seeming to get worse I think he's a solid chance of a place but little chance of the win and he's too short odds for me to get involved with that opinion. I like your Theatre Territory as well Des.

    Sorry its brief but I'm short on time. Jester Jet I feel is a fairly solid proposition.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    2017diary (13th April 2018), Desert Orchid (13th April 2018), Outsider (13th April 2018), Perpetual (13th April 2018), Steve T (13th April 2018)

  3. #862
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Next up...

    4.05 Art Mauresque 20/1 - this is one of my two main bets in the race (the other is Theatre Territory). I've always had good figures for this one but he's obviously had issues, being so lightly raced. His first run this season was in the good hundred-grander at Ascot won by Go conquer but he fell at the first and then was off for a while. His two runs since the turn of the year don't read at all badly now, beaten 8L by Waiting Patiently and then doing a bit much close to the pace in the Betdaq, also worth £100k. He also jumped left in those races and his early-career peaks were at left-handed tracks. If he can improve for going left-handed again he could easily win. Of course, he'll have to jump but that's the game, innit?
    Just announced as a NR

  4. #863
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Just announced as a NR
    Ah Bum ! Mine was ante-post so dough spunked without a run but I felt the ground had beat it anyway and it appears so did PFN.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  5. #864
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    4.05 Flying Eagle 40/1 small e/way - Trainer Peter Bowen has a great record in the race - no runners for the last 4 years but from 2006 to 2013 inclusive his record is 4th - 1st - fell - 4th - 1st - 1st - 1st & 5th thanks mainly to Always Waining and Dunbrody Miller. I'm hoping he has found another horse to follow in their hoofprints. With most bookies paying 5 or 6 places I have to have a go.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  6. #865
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Good luck Des glad to see you putting up Art Mauresque I put it up earlier in the week on the Aintree thread but I have to say I've been put off a little by testing conditions. I haven't got a single on him but he's in plenty of e/w doubles with a fair few National Fancies (It was actually a permed Trixie with Kings Socks yesterday but that sod bit the dust) So I'd be happy to see him win.

    I have a fairly light day today but I do like Jester Jet 25/1 in the first. Put up a fantastic effort for a long way when behind Arthurs Gift at Cheltenham over 3 mile just failing to last home in testing conditions but put up a big figure. Was dropped back to 2m4f where I really fancied it in a mares race but I personally thought the ride was pathetic as they went at a crawl and the Jockey just seemed happy to sit rather than to make use of the horses stamina. I'd hope they go hard here and if so I think Jester Jet has a cracking chance.

    I put up Le prezien earlier in the week I think there is 20's still available. If his jumping holds up I still think that is a fair price although I have a bet on the nut at 33's as I think he's an all or nothing job. I.e his jumping holds he runs big, his jumping doesn't hold he finishes well beaten.

    I was going to put up Mystifiable in the Topham but the price has long gone and with conditions seeming to get worse I think he's a solid chance of a place but little chance of the win and he's too short odds for me to get involved with that opinion. I like your Theatre Territory as well Des.

    Sorry its brief but I'm short on time. Jester Jet I feel is a fairly solid proposition.
    Bravo

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  8. #866
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    I have a fairly light day today but I do like Jester Jet 25/1 in the first. Put up a fantastic effort for a long way when behind Arthurs Gift at Cheltenham over 3 mile just failing to last home in testing conditions but put up a big figure. Was dropped back to 2m4f where I really fancied it in a mares race but I personally thought the ride was pathetic as they went at a crawl and the Jockey just seemed happy to sit rather than to make use of the horses stamina. I'd hope they go hard here and if so I think Jester Jet has a cracking chance.
    You called it, Danny!! Brilliant shout. Well done.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    2.00 Fighting Back

    (I did back it in the 4 place market too, now I'm off to celebrate with my small winnings in the Aftertimers Arms)
    Last edited by 2017diary; 13th April 2018 at 2:09 PM.

  11. #868
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Great stuff Danny

  12. #869
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Brilliant !! Danny - well done.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Cheers lads, Although I have the feeling Le prezien will put himself through a few fences he'd be a big result should he oblige. Fingers crossed and Prayer mats out haha.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  14. #871
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    Great shout Danny


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    Brilliant Danny,well done.

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    Cheers lads Le P obviously not right but tbf will never owe me a nicker as long as he lives.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Great shout Danny. Good to sees someone is winning when I couldn't pick my nose right now.

  18. #875
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Shanahan's Turn 20/1
    Beaten by the bastartin stablemate
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #876
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    Cracking effort Des that beast did me out of the forecast and the tricast so certainly wasn't cheering it home for you
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  20. #877
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Next...

    5.15 Al Dancer 40/1 - NTD tends to send his better horses to this race so with the first-time hood he's a lovely each-way price.
    Fvckin' fourth again! Fvck!!

    Could have been third if ridden closer to midfield. Seemed intent on accompanying the favourite all the way and wasn't in a great position when the jockey realised the favourite was going nowhere.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  21. #878
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    Oh no; got back late from shopping [my fault for nattering to people] so missed Dannys tip [well done that man].

  22. #879
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm leaving the National aside for the thread for today. I've backed several, including a few at 100/1+ (ante-post and today) along with others at shorter.

    Elsewhere though...

    1.45 Sir Mangan 40/1 - my third fancy in the race but the others don't qualify. Sir Mangan looks the least fancied of Skelton’s three going by jockey bookings but his earlier form against Beer Goggles and Whataknight looks good. Harry Skelton abandoned Mohaayed on account of the ground at the festival only for it to go and win and the ground may be the reason for not riding Sir Mangan here but the horse is a big price for one with his rating.

    2.25 Kildisart 22/1 - On The Blind Side is clearly going to be hard to beat but he's only third top on the ratings behind Black Op and Kildisart. I'm ruling Black Op out on account of the stable form. However, I haven't backed Kildisart at the price. I've taken him at 11/1 without OTBS but he could win anyway. I can't see this one out of the three.

    4.20 Thomas Campbell 22/1 - Again, Sam Spinner should really win but the jockey got it so badly wrong at Cheltenham it's entirely possible he does it again at this entirely different track. With L'Ami Serge out, TC is next top on my current figures and is a big price in the circumstances. However, again I've gone for the market without the favourite (10/1) and managed to back him along with Kildisart in a lovely-priced each-way double both with and without the favs.

    6.20 All Set To Go 40/1 - Again, not the main bet but I backed this one at the festival but he was just there for the fresh air as it turned out. I'm hoping that was a prep for this instead. I shamelessly copy and paste what I wrote before: All Set To Go is very interesting at long odds. He’s on the same mark as when a clear-cut winner when last seen fifteen months ago. He would almost certainly have gone up at least 5lbs for that win but he’s been allowed some leeway due to his absence so he could technically be officially well in and he might well have improved last season had he been able to race – who knows – and his price compensates for doubts. The going might be an issue but I’m prepared to take a chance with him as he has Daarshaan in his dam’s line. He was trained by Nicholls until last month and was sold on dispersal of the late owner’s stock. I can’t imagine Nicholls not having him fit prior to the sale.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  23. #880
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Unlucky with Shanahans Turn DO - nice placer.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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