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Thread: 2022 Arc Thread

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    2022 Arc Thread

    Does anyone have early opinions on it?

    I am very interested in Alenquer, especially if William Haggas can get him to this race fresh enough, perhaps after some sort of a break after his summer campaign.

    He ran in the Arc last year as a three year old where he couldn't get into the places but a really eyecatching piece of form was his win first time out in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month at the Curragh.

    He had the Prince of Wales winner, State Of Rest back in third, while Broome was further down the field. That form looks excellent.

    As only a four year old, I believe there is a good chance Alenquer has improved with an extra year in training.

    He is entered in all the big group 1 races in the next few months, and while I do not currently know his intended path to the Arc, I suppose 20/1 could look like value if he gets to Longchamp and keeps improving in the meantime as I think he might do.

    I will be keeping a close eye on where he races next.
    Last edited by Marb; 18th June 2022 at 8:05 PM.

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    Vadeni looks a superstar to me, i think Hurricane Lane will be placed again, he ran ok today on very unsuitable ground

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    I'm seeing Luxembourg at 20s.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I can't consider Luxembourg until it confirms its setback is behind it.

    French Oaks, Vermeille, German G1 in soft are the ones I want to keep an eye out for through the summer. And maybe the Japanese will have a good candidate.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Have re-thought this and decided 20/1 is worth having onside.

    Thanks for mentioning it, Frankel.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Not bet anything yet but the one I've got my eye on is Al Hakeem. He was terribly drawn in the JC but stayed on really well and is bred to improve over 12f.

    The problem though is I fell for a similar type in Mishriff's JC year in Port Guillaume. That horse wasn't badly drawn but was held up and stayed on well once the winner had gone. He went off short odds in Mogul's Niel and finished nowhere - ended up very disappointing.

    The issue with the JC is the trip - the mile and a quarter encourages milers to try their hand (one of the horses Port Guillaume passed was Order of Australia who was a stone miler - he did win over 12f but the opposition were handicappers) - and so 12f horses look rapid passing non-stayers up the Chantilly straight, types who wouldn't be in the race if it was still a mile and a half contest.
    Last edited by Euronymous; 18th June 2022 at 10:45 PM.

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Vadini definitely possesses the WOW factor and despite the doubters about the trip I really don't see it as a problem.

    His trainer has rightly decided to take in the two 10 furlong races, the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano and the Irish Champion Stakes first
    then being well have a crack at the Arc.

    Desert Crown won the Derby which is all well and good but I've put a huge question mark against him, the question being how good a race was it compared to what has to come.

    Races like the Breeders and the Arc take some winning and I think SMS's could struggle in real top class races if he even makes it that far.

    Unless they hand the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to him on aplate I think he'll find Emily Upjohn and Adayar different gravy to the Derby opponents if they turn up
    Last edited by Tanlic; 19th June 2022 at 7:15 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Have re-thought this and decided 20/1 is worth having onside.

    Thanks for mentioning it, Frankel.
    Dear ******* God.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Vadini definitely possesses the WOW factor and despite the doubters about the trip I really don't see it as a problem.

    His trainer has rightly decided to take in the two 10 furlong races, the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano and the Irish Champion Stakes first
    then being well have a crack at the Arc.

    Desert Crown won the Derby which is all well and good but I've put a huge question mark against him, the question being how good a race was it compared to what has to come.

    Races like the Breeders and the Arc take some winning and I think SMS's could struggle in real top class races if he even makes it that far.

    Unless they hand the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes to him on aplate I think he'll find Emily Upjohn and Adayar different gravy to the Derby opponents if they turn up
    You've consistently under-rated Desert Crown, and probably stilll will after he hoists the Arc.
    He's ayoung horse which won a good Derby easily on only his 3rd racecourse appearance, with a very capable trainer, and looks certain to improve on what he's achieved so far..
    My guess is he'll follow the Workforce route, taking in the King George before being put away for the Arc, when maybe the truth will dawn on even you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by reet hard View Post
    You've consistently under-rated Desert Crown, and probably stilll will after he hoists the Arc.
    He's ayoung horse which won a good Derby easily on only his 3rd racecourse appearance, with a very capable trainer, and looks certain to improve on what he's achieved so far..
    My guess is he'll follow the Workforce route, taking in the King George before being put away for the Arc, when maybe the truth will dawn on even you.
    Certainly the way SMS has campaigned him so far supports your view, reet, and I think you could say he knows one when he sees one.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.
    I said Waldgeist would win it this time in 2019 no one believed me then.

    I can see a good angle into Alenquer although it looks like it could be a competative renewal.

    I mention him as a work in progress throughout this summer.

    I want to see him in the King George ideally as he needs to prove it over 1M4F now if he's to be an Arc contender.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th June 2022 at 11:15 AM.

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    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    The Arc is completely overrated as an ante post race. Going and draw just two massive issues. You know a SHROOD when they tip you something in the Arc in the middle of the summer.
    Backing Torquator Tasso on the day is pretty SHROOD.

    Spit.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I said Waldgeist would win it this time in 2019 no one believed me then.

    I can see a good angle into Alenquer although it looks like it could be a competative renewal.

    I mention him as a work in progress throughout this summer.

    I want to see him in the King George ideally as he needs to prove it over 1M4F now if he's to be an Arc contender.
    I just read a quote from William Haggas after the Tattersalls Gold Cup stating 10 furlongs is Alenquers best trip. This is a bit off putting in terms of the Arc.

    Haggas also says he is best with give in the ground.

    Maybe the Eclipse is the right race for him if its not too firm.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th June 2022 at 11:24 AM.

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    There is no such thing as firm in the Arc. Will be bottomless.

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    Yeah that scenario would be okay for Alenquer. Its just the quote about 10F being his best trip that is off putting.

    I know one could pick holes in last seasons form but I really am thinking he is becoming a serious horse now as a four year old.

    Take a look at his record after a break aswell.

    That Tattersalls form is rock solid and he could improve again.

    I have said my piece anyway.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th June 2022 at 11:38 AM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Dunno, Marb. Alenquer is a 120-ish horse. I'm looking for a 125-130 horse for the Arc. Hurricane Lane is as good the lower end of that level with the potential to get to the top but not worth backing at this stage.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Dunno, Marb. Alenquer is a 120-ish horse. I'm looking for a 125-130 horse for the Arc. Hurricane Lane is as good the lower end of that level with the potential to get to the top but not worth backing at this stage.
    Yes as I said above I have gone off the idea of Alenquer over 12F.

    I think its more likely he will be winning group 1s over 10F.

    The issue could be if they up his stablemate Baeed to 10 furlongs.

    I have said my piece.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th June 2022 at 11:43 AM.

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    I'll finish off with this.

    Alenquer beat State Of Rest the last day who beat Bay Bridge at Ascot.

    Strictly on that form, and not even accounting for the fact I think Alenquer will improve again, he has the beating of State Of Rest and Bay Bridge, yet he is currently behind them in the betting for the Eclipse as an 8/1 shot.

    He should be right behind or near to Native Trail in the betting.

    The only apparant thing that can go against Alenquer in the Eclipse is good to firm ground. With his best form all on right handed tracks I would have thought connections will be looking to run him at Sandown.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th June 2022 at 12:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Truncheon View Post
    Vadeni looks a superstar to me, i think Hurricane Lane will be placed again, he ran ok today on very unsuitable ground
    Vadeni will be supplemented for the Eclipse.

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