I am still open minded about the Gold Cup I will have a look nearer the time. A cracking run by Scope the last day but as I said at the time I feel he'll show his very best on softer ground and what chance of that in the middle of June?!
I am still open minded about the Gold Cup I will have a look nearer the time. A cracking run by Scope the last day but as I said at the time I feel he'll show his very best on softer ground and what chance of that in the middle of June?!
Last edited by Marb; 1st June 2022 at 5:47 PM.
I've been studying the Gold Cup
The fav achieved a rating of 100 before winning a nothing race at 1/10
Somehow the RP decided on that basis he's higher rated than Stradivarius
That of course could be complete nonsense but to counter that he is trained by a genius so the bookies are taking no chances.
Aiden has won the race several times but apart from Yeats not with one that was rated as low as 100 two races before the Gold Cup
Order of St George 124 Leading Light 110 Fame and Glory 124 They were also a lot more experienced.
It's easy to say Stradivarius is past his best and I would have to agree but stranger things have happened
Purely on the book Trueshan stands out as the most likely winner but the book doesn't always work out.
I can't imagine those 3 filling the first 3 places. Life is never that simple.
When Scope won in France the 2m trip of brought out the best in him
He was just starting to get going in the closing stages and won easier than the distance would suggest.
He ran a blinder over 1m4f on his return in a prep for this,
This doesn't look like a classic Gold Cup and the ground won't be an issue, so I am going with Scope to cause aminor upset.
Last edited by Tanlic; 2nd June 2022 at 10:43 AM.
Formely Fist of Fury
downsman (2nd June 2022)
If the ground is good Trueshan is going to struggle and I'd be very skeptical of his mark of 120.. Stradivarius is 118 and no way he is running bove that at this stage. Kyprios is unexposed at the trip and on a steep upward curve. The better the ground the further he wins.
Last edited by Slim; 2nd June 2022 at 1:18 PM.
That means nothing Slim
Aiden's Amhran Na Bhfiann beat the same horse by 33 lengths when he was rated 106.
Doesn't make Amhran Na Bhfiann a Gold Cup horse
Maybe he will turn out to be a Gold Cup horse but as Aiden says anyone who thinks they know are kidding themselves.
I certainly wouldn't be having the kitchen sink on to find out.
One of my 2, Nature Strip for the King Stand left Australia yesterday
As of yet I haven't heard anything regarding Golden Pal but I'm sure he'll turn up.
That's where my money has gone dutching the pair at 11/8 in my biggest bet in years.
When one of them wins with it's **** hanging out I will be 21 for 23 winning star bets.
I will then withdraw xxxxx a fookin lot of money and leave 100 quid in Betfair to mess about with until November.
So quite frankly I don't give a fook what wins the Ascot Gold Cup but wish you luck as you've obviously got more than a few quid riding on it.
Last edited by Tanlic; 2nd June 2022 at 2:40 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
I meant Sunchart was below form in the Amhran race.
Slim (2nd June 2022)
I checked Trueshan last night. He has three or four bits of form that all point to his being at least around 120.
Quickthorn has twice franked this season's form and the well beaten fourth has also come out and won.
Obviously he is ground dependent but he is very solid around his mark. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of further improvement with that run under his belt.
Illegitimi non carborundum
He's an early 100s horse and 11 of those 15 races have been in Group or listed races. His strikerate therefore is about right. He's reasonably consistent and a half decent yardstick.
I think it's very complicated. His form when he beat Search for a Song with Sunchart well beaten (11 lengths) didn't have everyone running to back him.
There was some money for him but the price cut that made him fav came when when he won on the 13th of May
Sunchart was 14 lengths behind him but on that same day Search for a Song ran Stradavarius to 3 lengths.
The latter for me would be the better yardstick but he has let the form down in France since when well beaten behind Skazino
whom my selection Scope beat previously.
He was alaso beaten by Scope 6 lengths.
It seems like I am going round in circle and keep coming back to Scope who I think must have a cracking chance if he stays.
Formely Fist of Fury
I have looked. He's a full brother to Search For A Song under the same ownership and I am not denying his win in the Vintage Crop has turned out to be as good as Stardavarius's form.
He's younger and open to more improvement but if they were that certain as you seem to be that he will stay he wouldn't be 7/2.
It will be down to who stays the trip best. If it was 2miles I would be in your camp but he might be a tad too speedy to see uot that final 4 furlongs.
Formely Fist of Fury
Kyprios will kick Scope out of the way.
Not long now and I've already mentioned I'm trying to treat this as a sort of mini- Cheltenham. Getting involved ante-post and trying to have some doubles/multis going onto some fancies.
Tuesday:
The Queen Anne and SJP look fairly straightforward for Baaeed and Coroebus. Not completely convinced about the latter (this will be his first time racing round a bend) but I can't see a viable alternative.
No idea on the 2yo events so that leaves the King's Stand and Wolferton. In the former I want to be against the American and Aussie horses at the head of the market. I think both are vulnerable over a stiff 5. No entries for the latter as yet but there are prices available. I've taken a flyer on Foxes Tales at 12/1.
Wednesday:
I managed to get some 7/2 about Bay Bridge immediately after the BG for the Prince of Wales. Can't see him beat.
Alcohol Free should be capable of returning to form against her own sex - I think she was unsuited to a slow pace in the Lockinge and one or two of her toughest rivals in the DoC will give her weight. I've backed Dhahabi for the Hunt Cup and whilst he was a tad disappointing at Donny on Friday evening if he goes here this test will be more suitable.
Thursday:
I've got 10/1 about Sea Silk Road in the Ribblesdale. She's nap material but I also quite like Mukaddamah.
Kyprios looks ultra solid for the Gold Cup unless it rains and Trueshan goes. Strad is no longer a force and Scope a likely non-stayer.
Friday:
I have doubles going onto Perfect Power in the Commonwealth Cup. Not convinced by the Sandy Lane form and his possible dangers could be Tenebrism and Lusail. However I'm not sure the former has trained on and Hannon is almost as apt to **** up a group horse as Braveheart. Wouldn't oppose the Weld filly in the Coronation.
Saturday:
Hurricane Lane heads the Hardwicke market at 11/10 but he's yet to appear this season and if the ground has firm in it will he run? I want to be against him anyway and Al Aasy is a bet at 8s. Bay Bridge is ahead of him in the market but is more likely to go POW.
I can't get a handle on the Jubilee and I've backed First Folio in the Wokingham.
Last edited by Euronymous; 5th June 2022 at 12:06 PM.
Marb (5th June 2022)
Interesting post, Euro. I am a bit hungover but I shall digest it later.
I am considering an each way bet on Star Of Lady M for the Queen Mary.
In most years this wouldn't be the type of race I would bet in on the day nevermind anti post but I liked the way she toughed it out the last day albeit in a lesser contest as Mussleburgh. She is 3/4 now in her early career and I am tempted at some of the odds she is being quoted at.
Although the entries for the race aren't even out yet.
So I am still considering it at the moment.
Interesting post, Euro. I am a bit hungover but I shall digest it later.
I am considering an each way bet on Star Of Lady M for the Queen Mary.
In most years this wouldn't be the type of race I would bet in on the day nevermind anti post but I liked the way she toughed it out the last day albeit in a lesser contest at Beverley. She is 3/4 now in her early career and I am tempted at some of the odds she is being quoted at.
Although the entries for the race aren't even out yet.
So I am still only considering it at the moment.
Last edited by Marb; 5th June 2022 at 12:36 PM.
Copied from the longshot thread:
Commonwealth Cup - Flotus 50/1 - only has a length to find with Tenebrism (10/1 for this) on Cheveley Park form and started this season rated 112 (Tenebrism 114) and her allowance will put her on the same figure as the top-rated male Perfect Power (9/2f). The Crisfords are serious target trainers (at least Simon is) and I'd be very hopeful they'll have the filly on song for the day. I think the price is miles too long.
Illegitimi non carborundum