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Thread: Royal Ascot 2022

  1. #481
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Does anyone actually think that as a good renewal of the Gold Cup?

    Considering Strad showed signs last year his days of glory were coming to and end and might well have won with a better ride says it all.

    The 2nd's winning record adds up to 1 from 8 and Cesarewitch 2nd Burning Victory a handicapper ran the winner to 1 1/2 lengths.

    I sincerly hope we have better stayers coming up through the ranks because what we have at this point in time is very poor by comparison
    Formely Fist of Fury

  2. #482
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    The winner and the second are four year olds that are likely to improve and peak as 6 or 7 year olds in staying races Tan. The fact that they finished 1st and 2nd in this so early in their careers marks them out as very good horses.

    Kyprios has clearly been improving as he's stepped up in trip, and Mojo Star was second to Hurricane Lane in the St Leger. I'm very surprised you don't see the very obvious positives in their form.

    Stradivarius's best RPR in the race was 126, and these two put up 119 and 118 first time up compared to Stradivarius's performance as a 4 year old in the race which was only a pound higher at 120.

    Your thought process is pretty much the same as saying that Stradivarius's first Gold Cup was poor.

  3. #483
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I think if you do some more research you'll find Hurricane Lane was given a few pounds more than horses like Capri and Kew Gardens
    Hence Mojo Star deservidly or not gets higher rating having finished 2nd in the St Leger.

    TBH it don't mean didly squat and actually Stradivarius put up 118 according to the OR given.

    The fact is he became a legend winning more than just Gold Cups but the Stradivarius we saw this year was a shadow of the 2020 winner

    He has been on the downgrade for 2 years and along comes a couple of half decent stayers and he loses another Gold Cup

    Suddenly Kyprios is the next coming......Not in my book he is not
    Formely Fist of Fury

  4. #484
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    An optimist would say that Kyprios has got it until he proves he hasn’t.
    A pessimist would say that Kyprios hasn’t got it until he proves he has.
    For me, I think we’ve seen a changing of the guard and with not much else on the horizon (I’ve never rated Trueshan overmuch) I’m quite happy to sit in the optimist’s tent.

  5. #485
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, well put, BJ. Trueshan is a pretty solid 120 marker, ie substandard for G1.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  6. #486
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    Kyprios is 11/4 for the Goodwood Cup. Thank God people are so bad at the eye test.

  7. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    barjon (21st June 2022), LUKE (22nd June 2022)

  8. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    I think if you do some more research you'll find Hurricane Lane was given a few pounds more than horses like Capri and Kew Gardens
    Hence Mojo Star deservidly or not gets higher rating having finished 2nd in the St Leger.

    TBH it don't mean didly squat and actually Stradivarius put up 118 according to the OR given.

    The fact is he became a legend winning more than just Gold Cups but the Stradivarius we saw this year was a shadow of the 2020 winner

    He has been on the downgrade for 2 years and along comes a couple of half decent stayers and he loses another Gold Cup

    Suddenly Kyprios is the next coming......Not in my book he is not
    At times I think you take stances for the sake it. This is a really God awful take.

  9. #488
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I wonder how connections of Trueshan are interpreting Hollie Doyle's quoted comment that Nashwa, who got an RPR of 115 for winning the French Oaks the other day, is the best she's ever sat on?

    Could it be that Trueshan isn't as good as his 120 OR? If that's the case, it brings the AGC form and general level of stayers down another peg.

    Just asking the questions.

    Personally I suspect Doyle is probably talking potential because, as I said before, I think Trueshan is a pretty solid 120 yardstick. (And yardsticks by definition tend not to win good G1s.)
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  10. #489
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I wonder how connections of Trueshan are interpreting Hollie Doyle's quoted comment that Nashwa, who got an RPR of 115 for winning the French Oaks the other day, is the best she's ever sat on?

    Could it be that Trueshan isn't as good as his 120 OR? If that's the case, it brings the AGC form and general level of stayers down another peg.

    Just asking the questions.

    Personally I suspect Doyle is probably talking potential because, as I said before, I think Trueshan is a pretty solid 120 yardstick. (And yardsticks by definition tend not to win good G1s.)
    She is sat on a horse who travels with gears with Nashwa. The feel she must get!
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  11. #490
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    At times I think you take stances for the sake it. This is a really God awful take.
    Yeah you're the same guy who told me I was a bad judge when I stated back before the 1000 Guines that Inspiral would eat anything around alive for breakfast........
    and to top that when he didn't run who put the 16/1 winner up as his selection.....That would be me.

    I also backed Kyprios for the Gold Cup but while he won he scraped home in a sub standard Gold Cup IMO.

    As you say he's 11/4 for the Goodwood Cup which tells us what? It tells us the bookies don't regard him as certain to beat the same rivals again if they turn up..

    Unlike Inspiral who's 4/7 for the Falmouth there was no wow factor in the Gold Cup and to many ot left doubts about what woud have happened if Franke hadn't cost Strad about 3 lengths taking the scenic view.

    That said maybe Moore cost Kyprios a few lengths concentrating more on keeping Frankie hemmed in than going for home a bit earlier....time will tell
    Formely Fist of Fury

  12. #491
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    An optimist would say that Kyprios has got it until he proves he hasn’t.
    A pessimist would say that Kyprios hasn’t got it until he proves he has.
    For me, I think we’ve seen a changing of the guard and with not much else on the horizon (I’ve never rated Trueshan overmuch) I’m quite happy to sit in the optimist’s tent.
    We saw a real champ on the downgrade and when the real champs are on the downgrade they get beat.

    That's not being pessimistic that's facing up to reality..anyone who thinks Strad is now within 7lbs of his best ever needs help

    Burning Victory rated 12lbs lower than him ran Strad to a neck FFS..back in the day he wouldn't have gotten within 5 lengths of him....That's how ordinary a Gold Cup this turned out to be
    Last edited by Tanlic; 22nd June 2022 at 3:20 AM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  13. #492
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    She is sat on a horse who travels with gears with Nashwa. The feel she must get!
    Yes, that thought occurred to me after I shut down the laptop and went to bed.
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  14. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tanlic View Post
    Yeah you're the same guy who told me I was a bad judge when I stated back before the 1000 Guines that Inspiral would eat anything around alive for breakfast........
    and to top that when he didn't run who put the 16/1 winner up as his selection.....That would be me.

    I also backed Kyprios for the Gold Cup but while he won he scraped home in a sub standard Gold Cup IMO.

    As you say he's 11/4 for the Goodwood Cup which tells us what? It tells us the bookies don't regard him as certain to beat the same rivals again if they turn up..

    Unlike Inspiral who's 4/7 for the Falmouth there was no wow factor in the Gold Cup and to many ot left doubts about what woud have happened if Franke hadn't cost Strad about 3 lengths taking the scenic view.

    That said maybe Moore cost Kyprios a few lengths concentrating more on keeping Frankie hemmed in than going for home a bit earlier....time will tell
    He was a very easy winner of a Gold Cup ran at a crawl. Had they gone a gallop he'd have won 10l.

  15. #494
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    Re: the bookmskers being 11/4.

    If the bookmskers were always right there would be no point in betting. They've priced this race really badly.

  16. #495
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    He was a very easy winner of a Gold Cup ran at a crawl. Had they gone a gallop he'd have won 10l.
    Easy winner

    2nd part is at least correct.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  17. #496
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    Easy winner

    2nd part is at least correct.
    QUOTES: It wasn't a nice race to ride. KYPRIOS stepped slow, which is unusual for him and I didn't like the spot we were in as we were going slow. They were getting an easy time up front and I had to move him to the outside - I don't like doing that. We got going and he's got there and Mojo Star has come to us and that's when he's clicked in, it was comfortable at the line. It wasn't a true test today but I'm glad he's come over here and won. There will be lots of good days with him. He was much the best - Ryan Moore, jockey.

  18. #497
    Senior Member Frankel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    QUOTES: It wasn't a nice race to ride. KYPRIOS stepped slow, which is unusual for him and I didn't like the spot we were in as we were going slow. They were getting an easy time up front and I had to move him to the outside - I don't like doing that. We got going and he's got there and Mojo Star has come to us and that's when he's clicked in, it was comfortable at the line. It wasn't a true test today but I'm glad he's come over here and won. There will be lots of good days with him. He was much the best - Ryan Moore, jockey.
    I get all that and there is better to come.

    He did though get a better trip around than Strad. Whichever way it's dressed up Strad lost more ground than the length and a bit that he was beaten by.
    Last edited by Frankel; 22nd June 2022 at 1:28 PM.
    All comers, all grounds, all beaten!

    This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.

  19. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    I get all that and there is better to come.

    He did though get a better trip around than Strad.
    This is the absolute key to the horse. He is an out and out stayer. He won't be getting beat over 2m+ on good ground any time soon.

  20. #499
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frankel View Post
    ?………. Whichever way it's dressed up Strad lost more ground than the length and a bit that he was beaten by……….
    You could pretty much say the same for any horse that comes from well off the pace to get within a length of the winner, albeit that they “lost” the ground deliberately rather than accidentally. In any event I think that Strad was pretty much all out to get to where he did, whereas Kyprios was nowhere near that to hold off him and MS.

  21. #500
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'm just logging up my pre-race ratings ahead of trying to come up with figures for the races themselves.

    One thing that has struck me is that I had a number of horses, nearly all in the handicaps, with the '+t' annotation. This is something I'd add if the form book comment strongly suggested there was more to come from a step up in trip. I'll need to go back and check the number but I reckon at least half won and, since they were the handicaps, the SPs would have been anywhere between palatable and genuinely tasty. I don't think there was any more than two in any race.

    That's an approach I'll need to remind myself of in future.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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