It was something someone told me years ago. They obviously weren’t as knowledgeable as you. And I have seen young horses at Nottingham from top trainers run at Nottingham that went on to run in good races. Then again maybe, being old, my memory is playing tricks with me. There’s no need to be so rude. Life’s too short. And I’m not a ‘he’.Originally Posted by Tanlic
Used to be a regular there, and it's a flat,fair track, which many good trainers send good horses to; probably because of that.
Re Lingfield; recall SMS sending Workforce for a training spin there, before he won the Derby.
The Lingfield Derby Trial had quite a reputaion back in the 80's when a few good horses won it and won the Epsom Derby
Aiden tends to have runners in it has won it several times most recently with Anthony Van Dyck who went on to win the Derby
Henry Cecil had many runners in it and he also did the double with Slip Anchor.
How much of an advatage it gives horses who run their before the Derby is hard to say but overall the Dante winners have a better record at Epsom.
Henry Cecil, Michael Stoute Noel Murless and John Gosden all having done the double.
Formely Fist of Fury
I'm pretty sure the Timeform Fifty booklets sometimes mention Stoute sending his better late-maturing prospects to Nottingham as juveniles. Can't recall off-hand the reasoning. Maybe the overall fairness of the track? Is it a big, wide track? I think some of the bigger trainers use Leicester for similar reasons?
Maybe it's just a good track that allows horses to stride and show their ability (as far as the trainer wants it shown...)
Illegitimi non carborundum
Golden Horn won on debut at Nottingham, finished like a train. A good track to give a horse a nice first day out you'd imagine.
Desert Orchid (6th June 2022)
None of Stoute's best 2 year olds ever ran at Nottingham and neither did most of his Derby winners his biggest win was in the Notts Oaks with Noon Star....most of his best young horses ran at Newbury or Sandown as 2year olds.
Desert Crown was not thought that highly off at the time he went there looking for an easy race, He ended up hacking up unfancied at 11/1 as we now know.
However SMS does have a decent record at the track with all aged horses but your p/l is nothing to write home about. I beleive it's about 8 quid up over the last 5 years.
Last edited by Tanlic; 6th June 2022 at 10:33 AM.
Formely Fist of Fury
Wasn't a bad sort he beat that day but even he wasn't regarded as Gosden's best chance of Derby success. Jack Hobbs was number one and started of in an all weather at Wolverhampton.
Formely Fist of Fury
Glory Daze well beaten, probably not staying
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
Desert Crown raised to 123.
Cf:
Adayar 121
Serpentine 120
AVD 118
Masar 121
Wings Of Eagles 120
iIt seems long gone are the days when Derby winners were pretty much automatically rated 125 and more.
Does it also suggest the race maybe doesn't actually take as much winning as generally believed?
Illegitimi non carborundum
edgt (7th June 2022)
Simon Rowlands digs into the big Epsom races:
(Interestingly, for me, he says the Coronation Cup was "a true enough test on the day", which was my take at the time. The Oaks was much more of a sprint finish.)
Sectional Spotlight | At The Races
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 7th June 2022 at 8:17 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Think 123 is modest enough , Desert Crown deserves a pound or two more imo.
Evaluating the French Derby form for an impressive winner and comparing the two will be interesting.
Who might beat who in any match up ?
Churchill given a much needed boost by the result; mind you he got two winners today over 6 and 12 furlongs.
They had to raise the 3rd 7lbs to justify giving him 6lbs. The second got 11lbs. He'll get higher but he'll need to beat something better than that bag of shite on Saturday.
How predictable is knocking the Derby form before it's had chance to mature?
It's pointless trying to put a figure on a horse that has only had 3 races, and never been seriously tested in any of them.
My own feeling is that he's a very high class colt, in the care of a very capable trainer, and will go on to prove so before the season is out.
[QUOTE=Slim;775731] He'll get higher but he'll need to beat something better than that bag of shite on Saturday.]
Yes. I hope to 'do' the race today but my gut says a modest/average rating for this performance but he got there easily and went clear readily so I imagine he'll show more against better opposition. In my head I'm already putting a '++' or '+p' next to his mark.
Illegitimi non carborundum
He was certainly impressive but the Derby overall is no longer the race it once was. I read somewhere the other day "The Derby the worlds greatest horse race"
The greatest horse race that attracted zero runners from France The USA Japan Australia....The Melbourne Cup attracts foreign competitors ffs.
Slim may be 100% right Desert Crown may well have beaten a bag of shite.
To be honest if you ignore the way he won on paper he should be rated under 120.
You have to go way back to the 5th and 6th horse to justify the 123 because the 2nd 3rd and 4th were considered rags beforehand and probably still are pretty moderate
Last edited by Tanlic; 8th June 2022 at 4:23 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
Tbh, that's the parochial way this area judge their horses.
Baaeed is suddenly "the best horse in the world" having never been more than 200miles from his stable, and often the 'International horse of the year' has never raced outside Western Europe.
Such is life.
I'm coming up with relatively modest ratings for the race, which, at this stage, I'd still categorise as provisional. Based on published RP standard times with the rest of the card on the round course, I'm coming up with a time figure of just 115 (after allowing for wfa) for Desert Crown. Simon Rowlands suggests no mark-up based on sectionals although he does allow a couple of pounds for ease of victory.
I have to take a more subjective approach to rating the race and go down the 'best fit' route (which I'm never comfortable with but I only do it when it's the least uncomfortable of the options). In this case, I'm arriving at a mark of 120+p for the winner based on the second, third and fourth going into the race on 105, 109 and 107 respectively and working from there to see which works out the 'most likely', if I can put it like that.
I now need to figure out why the better horses didn't run their race. Poor passages through the race? Non-stayers? Bad luck? Ineffective sectionals? Upset by the fireworks? A combination of some of them or a bit of everything?
All that said, I remain impressed by the winner and would be shocked if he doesn't prove some way better than the bare form.
RPRs have allowed Westover 3lbs for his unlucky run. I reckon that's pretty stingy. I reckon he lost at least three lengths, not taking into account loss of momentum at such a crucial stage. I'd have it closer to 6lbs but I'm not suggesting he'd have beaten the winner. I'd be fairly confident that if Kingscote had seen the challenge he'd have asked for - and got - more from Desert Crown who might have posted a mark more in keeping with his superiority.
In summary, a very smart winner of a modest renewal.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 8th June 2022 at 8:47 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
1m4f around Epsom is a fairly unique test and I'd always be wary of trying to translate the result into precise ratings to inform future races.
Agree on the second point, with the sectionals backing up the three lengths lost.
Desert Orchid (8th June 2022), Slim (8th June 2022)
Not seeing an Oaks thread so might as well put this here for comparative purposes.
My time ratings are calculated entirely independently of the following day's race times and I have to say they somewhat surprised me as they are at odds with Simon Rowlands's figures (so the chances are mine are wrong but I'll stick with them until I learn from losing money on them), although I do trust his mark-ups and have used them in my calculations.
SR says the Coronation Cup was a "true enough test" but my time figures say it was overall on the modest side of that. My time rating for Hukum is just 104. That would be a good time rating for a Class 2 handicapper but not for a G1 winner.
By comparison, Tuesday, in the Oaks over CD, emerges with a time rating of 93 but, as a 3yo, she'd entitled to some consideration for her age. The official figure is 15lbs, which would take her up to 108. Simon Rowlands reckons her time performance is worth a 12lbs mark-up. That, if it can be taken literally, would bring her up to 120.
Should she ever meet Desert Crown she'd be getting the gender allowance, which could make things very interesting indeed.
John Gosden said Emily Upjohn is no enable but is another Taghrooda. That kind of rating for her would confirm that level.
Certainly for the time being at least, I'm happy to take a very positive view of the Oaks, which surprises me as I thought it might be a pile of cack beforehand.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Tuesday to run in Irish Derby? Emmm
All comers, all grounds, all beaten!
This perfect mix of poetry and destruction.
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