The Strong Form Thread - Flat 2022

[Desert Orchid]

To be honest, bj, it's almost embarrassing to take credit for it.

Maybe if it had won by five lengths (or at 20/1)...

But thanks anyway.

(Not that I was tipping it - just following through on the original post.)

[barjon]

To be honest, bj, it's almost embarrassing to take credit for it.

Maybe if it had won by five lengths (or at 20/1)...

But thanks anyway.

(Not that I was tipping it - just following through on the original post.)

According to RP she ran the best comparative time of the meeting and at 6lb higher that was a pretty good performance which supports your original post. So credit is due, whether you like it or not

[Desert Orchid]

[Raydoun] Engaged tomorrow. 6.05 Ripon, 6/1.

Not looking good. Out to 9/1 in a place.

[Desert Orchid]

Not looking good. Out to 9/1 in a place.

Came back in to 6s through the day but I've only just seen the replay. Not off the proverbial. Found more arses than Galileo in a covering season and finished full of running.

[chaumi]

Came back in to 6s through the day but I've only just seen the replay. Not off the proverbial. Found more arses than Galileo in a covering season and finished full of running.

On the plus side, still looking good overall. I think PM might have been done by the ground. Looked soft enough to me, softer than Haydock, anyway..

PS "Found more arses than Galileo in a covering season" Always good to go to bed chuckling :-)

[Desert Orchid]

In the Oaks, I’m on Concert Hall at 14/1, my only surviving ante-post bet. Yesterday evening I spent a lot of time checking the Godolphin filly’s time rating and it stands up next to the other good races on that card, including Cachet's 1000G win, and would maybe qualify for this thread but there were other lower-class races that were made to look extraordinarily fast for the their level so I have to distrust those time ratings. Still, Godolphin wouldn’t run this filly if they didn’t like her. If she goes and wins I'll put up the lower-level races later on that card which worked out very fast.

[chaumi]

I think I've come across another strong race:

York May 21, 4.42 (Race Ref #3117)

On a day of seemingly true-run races (bar the fillies' G2 which was very slow), this race is working out fastest relative to its class.

The first two have gone clear and are worth special note but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the beaten horses also franked the form. A Godolphin was third and I also noticed one that Euro had mentioned, Bullet Force, could only manage fourth. It's possible he has run as well as Euro might have hoped, only to have been beaten by especially unexposed types.

Time will tell but the sectionals aren't up yet.

The first two, Exminster and Golden Voice have gone into my tracker.

On the basis of this, Master Richard looked somewhat of a good bet in the 6.06 Doncaster, confidence enhanced by Ann D being on a treble. He had it a furlong out, but fair play to the eventual winner (by an inch!!), she fought back bravely after looking beat (although MR jockey looked a little unbalanced for a second, maybe this is what cost the win).

I guess - given this was a Class 5 - you can't exactly say it franked the form, but probably didn't do it any harm.

[barjon]

Desert

Wonder if you’d take a look at the 4:51 Doncaster today. Looked a pretty hot race for a Class 5 Novice to me.

[barjon]

Desert

Wonder if you’d take a look at the 4:51 Doncaster today. Looked a pretty hot race for a Class 5 Novice to me.

[Desert Orchid]

Might be Wed/Thu before I get round to it, Bj, but I'll try.

[Euronymous]

https://www.racingpost.com/results/2...2-05-20/810103

This looks really strong form. I tracked Spinaround from it and he won at Chelmsford next start. Since:

Nuvolari wasn't great at Epsom but a lot of horses just don't act there
Wodeton ran well against Outgate and Thunder Legend at Chester this past Saturday
Ascending won well at Goodwood on Friday. Needs cut but was impressive against older horses
I'm tracking Rousay who was third even though I'm not a massive Hannon guy

This was Lawful Command's second victory at Goodwood - the previous win he beat Wodeton again and the fourth that day was Zoom who ran well in the Israr race at Newbury. Zoom has since been second at Donny to a Stoute horse called Migdam who went straight in the tracker.

[Desert Orchid]

That Sandringham must be sh1t hot form. Fresh Hope was clearly a Fellowes-Turner special and Gosden had said Crenelle would win the Pretty Polly but ultimately they were beaten by two fillies who overcame a week-long draw bias. The winner is clearly G3 at least.

Edit - Thinking about it a bit more, I now wonder if Murtagh set a new trend last year with Create Belief who went on to win a G3. She had been a wide margin winner in the Sandringham. I suspect the Fellowes-Turner filly would be good enough to win an average past renewal but she has been pretty much smashed. I think next year we'll need to look for G3/G2 types getting in on a mark around 95-99.

[Slim]

Good thread even if most of you were talking through your hole,

[Desert Orchid]

Giving this thread another go on the basis of a race I've come across.

Ascot Saturday, 5.20 (Raceform race reference #4911)

The time of this race is making the rest of the card positively - or should that be negatively - pedestrian.

If I allocate a going allowance that would enable the winner to run to its new OR of 84, then these are the time ratings the rest of the winners on the card have run to (with RPRs for the race in brackets):

Defence Of Fort 55 (91)
Bague D'Or 58 (99)
Mountain Peak 81 (113)
Chindit 50 (117)
Wild Crusade 57 (104)
Random Harvest 57 (95)

Either the race in question was exceptionally fast or the other races have been exceptionally slow or the truth lies somewhere in between.

The second scenario is highly unlikely so even a conservative application of the latter has to be a positive.Two of the three are fillies and maybe be open to further improvement at this time of year and going forward.

All three have gone into my tracker.

It was an all-age Class 4 handicap with two 3yos beating a 4yo, almost four lengths clear of the fourth.

[barjon]

Course was watered and would have got faster and faster as the day wore on as it dried out?

[Desert Orchid]

Very likely but it's unusual for that kind of scenario to throw up this kind of difference.

I'm giving the tracker horses three runs each although I'll be slightly wary of the bounce if they reappear too soon.

[Euronymous]

This was Lawful Command's second victory at Goodwood - the previous win he beat Wodeton again and the fourth that day was Zoom who ran well in the Israr race at Newbury. Zoom has since been second at Donny to a Stoute horse called Migdam who went straight in the tracker.

Migdam run from Doncaster below. The third, Adjourn, was very taking winning a similar race also at Doncaster last Saturday. Migdam is in the opener next Wednesday at Goodwood. Ryan Moore booked.
https://www.racingpost.com/results/1...2-06-04/811433