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Thread: The Strong Form Thread - Flat 2022

  1. #21
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    As the advertising whizz-kid in 12 Angry Men says, "Let's put this up the flagpole and see who salutes it."

    Rather than just one eyecatcher as per Barjon's thread, I thought I'd put this up for races which might otherwise go under the radar, not unlike the good Sandown maiden some time back that threw up several winners.

    Please feel free to add any such races of your own.

    The first race I'd like to offer is the 10f 3yo handicap at Newmarket on Tuesday 12 April, won by Educator (Raceform race ref #1829).

    On a day when times appeared generally to match the form, I'm getting a big time figure for this race. Educator won by only a nose from High Fibre. Only seven ran and that and the close finish may be reasons the handicapper only put up the winner 5lbs (HF up 4lbs).

    However, my time ratings for the race suggest he may have seriously under-estimated the form and the first five were a long way clear of the other two. I'll be watching those five with interest.

    They are:

    Educator (Haggas)
    High Fibre (Beckett)
    Israr (Gosdens)
    Independent Act (Appleby)
    Thunder Max (Hannon)
    Independent Act runs tomorrow. Looks like there's money for it.

    Edit - just saw Euro's post (#18) above.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th May 2022 at 9:49 PM.
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  2. #22
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Brayden Star just now at Salisbury.

    I am not sure what's he beaten but he was very impressive.

    I felt he would improve for the step up to ten furlongs and he really has done that today.

    Landed a big gamble too by the looks of it.

    A big handicap may await.
    Declared Thursday at Sandown. He's short and I'm gonna take him on with War Horse. This Botti creature ran in a strong race at Donny in March where he was behind Grand Alliance (since second in the Epsom Derby trial and in front of Typewriter who was third in the Cheshire Oaks.) He returned to the track a month later and ran no sort of race despite being odds-on. The only reason(s) I can possibly fathom for this run is ground (first time on g/f) and also stable form which was poor at the time for Marco. He's 10/1 and worth a bet on Thursday,

  3. #23
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

    What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

    What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4
    Good shout Euro I planned to back it earlier once Roger Charltons horse was a non runner but I have been busy on radio.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post
    Took 10s at Hills and BV. Beefy deductions obviously with the withdrawals.

    What grates though is Bet Victor essentially paid me even money about a horse that sp'd at 7/2. 90p R4
    That's disgusting. Bet365 give bog so at least you would have got 7/2.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    This race strikes me as strong form:

    https://www.racingpost.com/results/3...2-05-13/809960

    I watched this race live and remember thinking it was being quite strongly run. I haven't looked at the video again but, from memory I reckon there were a few in contention about three out but they've ended up strung out like soft-ground staying hurdlers. The ground this day was on the fast side.

    I've now had a chance to check the clock and it's suggesting a very strongly run race, backed up by sectionals which point to a laboured finish all round.

    I had the second and third as progressive types and the former was wearing a first-time hood and looked through the race very much like a proper trier; he had also been well backed at 5/2f. He has shrugged off the third in the final furlong but ultimately the winner, Nate The Great, has outstayed him by some way.

    Take NTG out of the race and the form would still look strong.

    All of this field will presumably need a few weeks to recover from this but the beaten horses may well be over-priced in their next run or two because of the distances by which they were beaten. The winner has gone up 6lbs, which might prove to be very lenient. The rise will almost certainly see him make the cut for the Northumberland Plate but, if he were mine, I'd be having him trained for the Ebor.

    If there is a down side to the form it is that Harry Davies took 7lbs off the winner and if he's value for it it might be dangerous to back the horse until he or another top claimer are booked again.
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  8. #27
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Euronymous View Post

    The fifth, Tylos, was 4th in this contest last Friday at Ascot

    https://www.racingpost.com/results/2...2-05-06/808746

    The winner of that race is a Group horse and the second and third are both tracker worthy (Haggas and Balding as well)
    Said second in that Ascot race above, War In Heaven, is out at Goodwood tomorrow - 8/1.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

    This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

    It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

    The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The winner was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

    I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

    1. Lil Guff
    2. Gidwa
    3. True Jem

    Whether they'll be backable is another question.


    Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 25th May 2022 at 12:56 PM.
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    So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

    Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

    The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

    PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
    Last edited by chaumi; 25th May 2022 at 1:46 PM.

  13. #30
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaumi View Post
    So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

    Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

    The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

    PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
    I was trying to keep the "eyecatcher" bits tae masel'!!
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  14. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I was trying to keep the "eyecatcher" bits tae masel'!!
    Sorry. As I should, probably. Although it's pretty obvious in the notes. Where we have an added advantage is in the extra 'Desert info'.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I think I've come across another strong race:

    York May 21, 4.42 (Race Ref #3117)

    On a day of seemingly true-run races (bar the fillies' G2 which was very slow), this race is working out fastest relative to its class.

    The first two have gone clear and are worth special note but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the beaten horses also franked the form. A Godolphin was third and I also noticed one that Euro had mentioned, Bullet Force, could only manage fourth. It's possible he has run as well as Euro might have hoped, only to have been beaten by especially unexposed types.

    Time will tell but the sectionals aren't up yet.

    The first two, Exminster and Golden Voice have gone into my tracker.
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  17. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

    This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

    It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

    The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The winner was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

    I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

    1. Lil Guff
    2. Gidwa
    3. True Jem

    Whether they'll be backable is another question.


    Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
    Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening, 7.55 Haydock. 3/1.

    If it's over last week's race it should win. But it's maybe a biggish 'if'.
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  18. #34
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Haydock, Saturday 21 May, Race Reference #3096

    This was a modest Class 5 which I'd take a barge pole to beforehand but when I'm analysing times sometimes I come across one that makes me want to keep an eye on it. This is one such race.

    It was the race that followed the Temple Stakes and run over the six furlongs. The principals in the Temple came from the back, suggesting a strong pace and true-run race but the Sandy Lane was more strongly run with a slower finish.

    The race in question, won by Lil Guff, has similar sectional percentages as the Temple but for a 6f race they were pretty strung out at the end. The second was well backed but had no answer to the winner's late run. I'm coming up with time ratings a long way in advance of the class of race, more in line with what I'd expect of a Class 3 or Class 2 race.

    I reckon the first three are worth watching in their next three runs:

    1. Lil Guff
    2. Gidwa
    3. True Jem

    Whether they'll be backable is another question.


    Full Result 4.20 Haydock | 21 May 2022 | Racing Post
    Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
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  19. #35
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaumi View Post
    So the horse in green with black cap out of 13, if you watch, was all over the place in the first couple of furlongs and then again 2f out (it looks like Joe Fanning wanted a way through and didn't/couldn't get it, rather than the horse was pulling and he was trying to restrain?). Ends up a strong looking 4th once he got a clear run. The horse in question - Prayer Mat.

    Sadly.....the RP notes say 'eyecatcher'. Not what we wanted!!. But still, probably needs to go with the three?

    The other angle here, of course, is the principals may have needed the strong pace, and will still be worth remembering for a while if beaten in coming events.

    PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
    Prayer Matt also holds an engagement tomorrow: Leicester 2.30, 7/2 available.
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  21. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
    Fairly non-committal from Daniel Kubler, but no obvious sign of fears around coming back too soon..........

    "Lil Guff victim of the abandonment of Haydock on Friday, this was plan B. Sets the standard based on her recent Haydock win but a couple of lightly raced sorts open to improvement could be dangers, should run another solid race."
    Last edited by chaumi; 31st May 2022 at 2:31 PM.

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    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st May 2022 at 7:37 PM.
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  23. #38
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Lil Guff runs tomorrow evening at Yarmouth in the 7.29 (Class 4). 7/2 in places. I've backed her but am concerned that the jockey booking might be a negative and I'd have preferred more time since that last race.
    Didn't win anywhere near as easily as I'd hoped but a win's a win. I'll have a R4 to factor in but should still beat the 11/5 SP.
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  24. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaumi View Post
    PS Just noticed the 5th Raydoun also got the dreaded 'eyecatcher'
    Engaged tomorrow. 6.05 Ripon, 6/1.
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  25. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Didn't win anywhere near as easily as I'd hoped but a win's a win. I'll have a R4 to factor in but should still beat the 11/5 SP.
    Nice one, desert

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