Two Year Olds

[edgt]

Tasleet suddenly on everyone's lips.

[Desert Orchid]

I'm just crunching some numbers and I'm coming up with a very smart figure for Bradsell.

Using the same (my usual) approach but two different sets of standard times, I'm still coming up with good figures.

On my own standard times (ie the original Ken Hussey ones, which I think are more reliable) Bradsell is coming out 24lb slower than Nature Strip, which is not slow.

Using the published ones in the RP, he's coming out 35lbs slower. The discrepancy is accounted for by the substantial difference in the standard times at 6f. The difference at 5f is 0.62s; at 6f it's 1.70. In both cases it's the old times that are slower.

The King's Stand form makes perfect sense looking at the placed horses and those just behind. It looked a fast race so I've calculated the going allowance based on a direct correlation with my rating for the winner.

The Bradsell figures make sense in the context. The fly in the ointment is how much to allow for weight for age.

For mid-June the official allowance for juveniles is 34lbs at 5 furlongs and 38lbs at 6 furlongs. These would suggest that Bradsell could arguably be regarded as the two-year-old equivalent of Nature Strip.

Personally, I've doubted the scale for years. I accept it's based on large-number averages but the whole thing about the better two-year-olds is that they're anything but average. They're good juveniles because they are better, or more advanced, than average.

I'm much more at ease in my own head allowing the start-of-year allowance of 16lbs at 6f. This still brings out Bradsell at 110 at the less generous time rating and 121 at the faster one. The precise rating, if one can exist, is probably somewhere in between.

What do the other juvenile observers out there (ie observers of juveniles rather than throwing out insults ) reckon?

[Colin]

The Racing Post have given Bradsell a rating of !!!, their highest rating at the moment, they have Dramatised on 110.

[Desert Orchid]

Looking at times for the Wednesday, I think that the juvenile races were true-run but the others weren't, bar the Kensington Palace, and those times are meaningless.

I have Dramatised running 15lbs faster than Little Big Bear over C&D and, based on my going allowance for the KP, I have her on a raw rating of 109.

It would be fairly unusual for filly to be faster than a colt so this makes sense too.

[Colin]

First Season Sires


The monthly update of the numbers:



HAVANA GREY runners 56 winners 20 runs 123 wins 24

SIOUX NATION 38 - 14 - 76 - 15

EXPERT EYE 26 - 7 - 56 - 8

CRACKSMAN 9 - 6 - 18 - 7

TASLEEF 19 - 5 - 38 - 7

[Colin]

Monthly update on numbers.

HAVANA GREY Runners 60 Winners 24 Runs 168 Wins 35

SIOUX NATION 37- 15 - 86 - 20

KESSAAR. 27 - 10 - 85 - 10

EXPERT EYE 30 - 8 - 71 - 9

HARRY ANGEL 30 - 7 - 77 - 7

TASLEET. 24 - 5 - 55 - 7

[Colin]

Cracking turn out for the Phoenix (Curragh 4.15) tomorrow. Three of the top colts take each other on BRADSELL 7/4, LITTLE BIG BEAR 5/2, PERSIAN FORCE 4/1 and the added attraction of BLACKBEARD’s pre-race antics, should be fascinating.

From what I’ve seen of him on the box, LITTLE BIG BEAR, has developed into a bit of a monster - has the look of a 3-y-o already and I didn’t expect to see him start at odds-against until the Guineas.

Quite looking forward to this.

[jinnyj]

Little Big Bear.....WOW! That was exceptional! I am just blown away by that!

[edgt]

When APOB mentions Nunthorpe as an for Little big Bear I guess he will not run next year.
They have no other stallion prospect so 200 mares at 30K will outperform any track success.
Hope I am wrong, he is some horse and improving.

[jinnyj]

That would be a huge shame. I know there have been other well developed two year olds that blew out at 3 but this one looks so scopey physically to me. I looked up his pedigree and there’s plenty of stamina to suggest he will get at least a mile. His fourth dam is All Along who won the Arc...I know that’s a way back but it was interesting to see.

[Truncheon]

That daughter of Roaring Lion that just won at Lingfield looks an Aeroplane

Remember the name- Running Lion

[Colin]

LITTLE BIG BEAR given an RPR of 122 for Saturday’s win.

Hard to believe he won’t be aimed at the Guineas.

[Tanlic]

Talk about suprises you got to love these 2yo's first Hoof It Hoof It is yet another Richard Hannon long priced winner but to top that Tom Queally drives home a BF exchanged priced filly at 395/1

Even the trainer of the latter must be still scratching his head wonder How on earth did that win

[Colin]

First Season Sire monthly update.

SIOUX NATION closes the gap slightly but it is still substantial.

HAVANA GREY runners 65 winners 26 runs 220 wins 40

SIOUX NATION 49 - 21 - 137 - 27

KESSAAR 33 - 14 - 116 - 15

HARRY ANGEL. 34 - 10 - 110 - 12

EXPERT EYE 37 - 10 - 103 - 11

TASLEET. 28 - 8 - 83 - 10

SAXON WARRIOR. 25 - 9 - 62 - 10

[jinnyj]

Very taken with Tahiyra today...the way she picked up and accelerated past a decent filly in Meditate who was going into the race unbeaten was pretty nice. I am still keen on Statuette of O’Briens for the Guineas but this filly certainly impressed me today.

[Tanlic]

Doom jocked up for Friday ..this filly is top class trust me

[barjon]

Doom jocked up for Friday ..this filly is top class trust me

They’ve obviously been desperate to get a race into her before the Rockfel, but this one’s a bit close isn’t it? She certainly won’t be given anything approaching a hard time, so I guess she’ll either win in a canter or down in the pack.

[jinnyj]

Tahiyra 4-1 favourite for the Guineas.

[Maruco]

I'm not sure Weld will bring Tahiyra over for the 1000 Guineas Jinny. My thinking is she'd be more likely for the Irish version, and I'd be much more keen on Statuette for the English 1000. Tahiyra may end more of an Oaks type anyway, and given her breeding and connections they'll probably work back from the Arc if they think she's good enough.

[jinnyj]

Yes I think you’re probably right. I loved Statuette when I saw her win and thought she was my Guineas pick.