"The owls are not what they seem"
Boothill
Formely Fist of Fury
Outsider (3rd February 2022)
When do the weights come out? They were out this time last year.
At that time I wrote:
Last year Soaring Glory went on to run in the Supreme as well, so the above would be my starting point for this year's renewal.10 of the last 11 winners ran next time in either the Supreme (7), Champion Hurdle (1, Zarkandar), Top Novices Aintree (1), County 1. The exception was [2020 winner] Pic D’Orhy who was kept back to go chasing this season.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Found a site with the info - next week, the 19th for the weights.
Also, only 39 entries this season compared with 49 last season. I reckon there might not even need to be a cut to worry about. (A cu*t or two maybe...)
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th January 2022 at 5:32 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Jpr One is fascinating. I thought they took a big risk with his mark running in a 9k race on Monday. Bookies haven't missed him though. 14s not exactly a must get on price.
Also very interesting that Jonbon wasn't given 3 runs to qualify. Surely means Nicky has one.
Did he need three runs? Isn't it enough that he has an OR? I suspect Hendo has at least one plotted up.
Anyway, this is my best guess at how the weights will look:
Horse Trainer OR Weight Song For Someone T Symonds 153 11-12 Adagio David Pipe 152 11-11 Whiskey Sour W P Mullins 149 11-8 Soaring Glory Jonjo O'Neill 147 11-6 Tritonic Alan King 146 11-5 Cask Mate Noel Meade 145 11-4 Glory And Fortune Tom Lacey 143 11-2 Stage Star Paul Nicholls 143 11-2 Arctic Warrior W P Mullins 142 11-1 Metier Harry Fry 139 10-12 Sea Ducor A L T Moore 139 10-12 I Like To Move It N T-Davies 138 10-11 Onemorefortheroad Neil King 138 10-11 No Ordinary Joe N Henderson 136 10-09 Boothill Harry Fry 135 10-08 Hudson De Grugy Gary Moore 135 10-08 Knappers Hill Paul Nicholls 135 10-08 Luttrell Lad Philip Hobbs 135 10-08 Broomfield Burg N Henderson 134 10-07 Rowland Ward S Edmunds 134 10-07 Elle Est Belle Dan Skelton 133 10-06 Jetoile Ryan Potter 133 10-06 First Street N Henderson 132 10-05 Hacker Des Places Paul Nicholls 132 10-05 Lucky One Dan Skelton 132 10-05 Captain Morgs N Henderson 131 10-04 Fifty Ball Gary Moore 131 10-04 Datsalrightgino J Snowden 130 10-03 Earth Company Philip Hobbs 130 10-03 Jpr One Colin Tizzard 129 10-02 Hystery Bere T Symonds 128 10-01 Knickerbockerglory Dan Skelton 128 10-01 Howdyalikemenow Evan Williams 127 10-00 Washington Olly Murphy 127 10-00 It's Good To Laugh J Candlish 125 9-12 Good Risk At All Sam Thomas 124 9-11 Lord Baddesley Chris Gordon 124 9-11 Royaume Uni Gary Moore 124 9-11 Natural History Gary Moore 114 9-01
Illegitimi non carborundum
Im convinced Whisky Sour is being plotted for something. I thought Martin Pipe but probably be a few too well in.
There was never a cat's chance I hell Jonbon would be sent to the Betfair. Was never even mentioned..JP would have thought Nicky had lost his mind if he suggested it. Nicky has couple with chances and does support the race with decent horses but I can't see him winning it this time round.Harry Fry's might just be chucked in...be interesting to see how the market plays out
Formely Fist of Fury
I will be following my gut and backing Metier. A big improvement the last day when fourth compared to his first pulled up effort this season. I know horses are not machines but on that improvement trajectory he can run a big race.
I will have a decent bet anti post shortly and hopefully with a bit of luck the ground may come up soft or even heavy on the day as he is good on that.
Last edited by Marb; 12th January 2022 at 6:49 PM.
I got stuck into him on Monday and he absolutely hacked up...The fact he was beaten before that is concerning but I think he could be a blot in the h'cap...price is ok .....I would be Happy try o put him up with Fry's against the fieldOriginally Posted by Slim
Formely Fist of Fury
Looks like he's been dropped 2lbs for it!
Illegitimi non carborundum
Next Tuesday Jan 18th, race conditions below
Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 12th January 2022 at 7:26 PM.
"The owls are not what they seem"
Desert Orchid (12th January 2022)
I think his recent good run knackered his mark.
Illegitimi non carborundum
JPR One will need a few to come out but it will probably happen. I don't see there being a maximum field.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Onemorefortheroad is a very fair price at 16/1
JPR One is a very nice horse and the fact he stayes a bit further is a big plus
On a galloping track like Newbury in a huge field you have to get every yard of 2miles +
He was available at 15/1 for 60 pounds on the machine so I expect that will be the place to back him.....12/1 with the bookies is very stingy.
Formely Fist of Fury
OMFTR is long-list material at worst but 16/1 doesn't stir my juices. This far out I'm looking for 40/1 shots that might end up at single-figure prices, the ones just off the radar while the McManus/Mullins/Hendo types grab the general betting public's attention.
Then again, I'm just a sucker for 40/1 shots in races of this nature
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th January 2022 at 9:20 AM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Using the above 'assumed' ORs and weights, this is how RPRs currently have them:
Horse Weight Trainer OR RPR Natural History 9-01 Gary Moore 114 170L Lucky One 10-05 Dan Skelton 132 167 Glory And Fortune 11-2 Tom Lacey 143 165 Metier 10-12 Harry Fry 139 164 Fifty Ball 10-04 Gary Moore 131 163 Song For Someone 11-12 T Symonds 153 161 Onemorefortheroad 10-11 Neil King 138 160 Lord Baddesley 9-11 Chris Gordon 124 160L Boothill 10-08 Harry Fry 135 158 Hudson De Grugy 10-08 Gary Moore 135 158 Knappers Hill 10-08 Paul Nicholls 135 158 Broomfield Burg 10-07 N Henderson 134 158 Howdyalikemenow 10-00 Evan Williams 127 158 Adagio 11-11 David Pipe 152 157 No Ordinary Joe 10-09 N Henderson 136 157 Elle Est Belle 10-06 Dan Skelton 133 157 Captain Morgs 10-04 N Henderson 131 157 Jpr One 10-02 Colin Tizzard 129 157 It's Good To Laugh 9-12 J Candlish 125 157L Royaume Uni 9-11 Gary Moore 124 157L Rowland Ward 10-07 S Edmunds 134 156 Jetoile 10-06 Ryan Potter 133 156 Hacker Des Places 10-05 Paul Nicholls 132 156 Hystery Bere 10-01 T Symonds 128 156 Soaring Glory 11-6 Jonjo O'Neill 147 155 Tritonic 11-5 Alan King 146 155 Stage Star 11-2 Paul Nicholls 143 155 Luttrell Lad 10-08 Philip Hobbs 135 155 Earth Company 10-03 Philip Hobbs 130 155 Knickerbockerglory 10-01 Dan Skelton 128 155 Whiskey Sour 11-8 W P Mullins 149 154 I Like To Move It 10-11 N T-Davies 138 154 Good Risk At All 9-11 Sam Thomas 124 154L First Street 10-05 N Henderson 132 153 Datsalrightgino 10-03 J Snowden 130 153 Washington 10-00 Olly Murphy 127 153 Sea Ducor 10-12 A L T Moore 139 152 Cask Mate 11-4 Noel Meade 145 145 Arctic Warrior 11-1 W P Mullins 142 144
On the above scale, a RP rating of 162 would represent a bang-average winner so you can see that the race is set up to go to an unexposed type.
For the moment, I'm happy to rule out Natural History as having lost the plot and even if it were a plot it will be 13lbs 'wrong' if SFS stands its ground.
Lucky One might be flattered by its large-margin win in bottomless ground.
Glory And Fortune is rated on its Christmas Hurdle form, which also might flatter it.
Metier will be a definite bet for me. As Marb says, it looked on the way back last time and I've put it up in both runs this season. It's back down to its pre-Challow mark.
Gary Moore usually plots one or two for this race and had a go with Fifty Ball last year. It's also back on a similar mark.
If SFS were to make the running, he could run his race but just set it up for an improver. They'll say he's the class horse because he's got top weight but he's giving a stone to Metier who was rated 3lbs below him after winning the Challow.
As I said, beyond them - and there are grounds for opposing them - you'd be looking at an improver and ideally one that holds a G1 Festival engagement.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Outsider (19th January 2022)
That mark won't be revised until Monday?
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