The 2022 Longshot Thread

[moehat]

It’s a Midnight had a good profile and was a bit blue on oddschecker but I backed two others as well that came 5th and @ 7th. I do like those sort of races. Smarting from the fact I missed a Mickey Hammond winner as I always back his horses when Emma rides them. Wise Eagle ran a good comeback race. I’ll be backing him for staying races throughout the season.

[Desert Orchid]

My a/p Cheltenham bets.
THE JAM MAN pertemps hurdle 33/1
SHANTREUSSE alfred bartlett 66/1
ONTHEROPES national hunt chase 25/1
SIRUH DU LAC pp plate 40/1
DUFFLE COAT coral cup 33/1
CABOT CLIFFS county hurdle npa yet.

Dont know if they will run but on my previous experiences they probably wont.

Shantreusse looking a promising rep for the thread. Fingers crossed for you, Outsider.

[Desert Orchid]

Saturday, Ascot 2.25 - Regal Encore 20/1 - the handicapper has taken a real chance in dropping this one to 140 from a high of 154 for running a head second in this race last season. He's had wind surgery since his last run.

[Slim]

A 14yo. Surely this is his last race.

[wilsonl]

I did find it strange that they’d give a wind op to a 14 year old. Or just over a week before his 14th. I like Larry in this at just double figures but best of luck DO

[Slim]

I did find it strange that they’d give a wind op to a 14 year old. Or just over a week before his 14th. I like Larry in this at just double figures but best of luck DO

It's a really strange one. I think the fav just wins but looks like this is one last go for Regal Encore.

[Desert Orchid]

I did find it strange that they’d give a wind op to a 14 year old. Or just over a week before his 14th. I like Larry in this at just double figures but best of luck DO

Larry is my other bet against the field.

[Desert Orchid]

Festival 3m6f Novices Chase - Annual Invictus 66/1 - also holds an entry in the [ex] RSA for which he's the same price but that will be a very hot race and, on breeding, I think might improve significantly for the longer trip. A winning pointer over 3m (aren't they all?), he's been kept to 2.5m and shorter under rules so far and wasn't beaten at all far in the Betfair Hurdle, which is strong form. I reckon a lot of Irish trainers would have steered a similar path with him, not asking him too much until into his chasing career and anticipating progress for a trip over fences. I reckon there's more chance of the field for this race cutting up than the RSA and, while I might just be throwing away my money, the stakes are modest for a low-risk-high-reward punt.

Runs in the Reynoldstown on Saturday (1st-time pieces), currently 4/1 which I plan to take. A win would be ideal but a solid promising reappearance will do for now.

[Desert Orchid]

Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.

[Desert Orchid]

Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.

Oh well. Fvck knows what was behind last night's move but it's back out to 40s in a place. I reckon I can write this one off.

[Desert Orchid]

Ascot 3.00 - Lucky One 33/1 - I'm pretty sure I put this one up earlier this season but I think it's on the old thread.

Anyroads, it's ridiculously well in on its old form but it has been disappointing. When I saw the other day that it held an entry I decided to let it go but it's blue across the board this evening so maybe Skelton has managed to find a reason for the poor form. For small stakes, I don't mind following the money this time.

Oh well. Fvck knows what was behind last night's move but it's back out to 40s in a place. I reckon I can write this one off.

Oh well, a return's a return!

[Outsider]

It's a big ask to back a british horse in the county hurdle but I think
UP FOR PAROLE 50/1 coral 4p is a value bet.

[Beef or Salmon]

Fully agree Outsider, have had in mind for this for over 6 months

[Outsider]

FARINET plate 25/1 venetia has a fair record in this with longshots.her overall record at Cheltenham is moderate.
I've always thought there is more to come with this horse.

[Outsider]

BEN SIEGEL boodles 33/1 bet 365. From last years winning stable.rated 127 in Ireland.
Its 3rd run to qualify was a quick one on bad ground and was well beaten but is expected to run better on better ground.
Bet365 are a standout price.

[Desert Orchid]

Saturday - Kempton 3.37 (FFS) - Kitty's Light 25/1, 5 places - very unlucky not to win the Whitbread off 139, he went up to 149 after his reappearance run this season but a few moderate runs see him back down on 140 here. My gut says the plan is a repeat bid for the Whitbread but I can't let him go unbacked with this level of money on offer and Brian Hughes booked.

[Desert Orchid]

Pertemps Final - Bells Of Peterboro 66/1 NRNB - I'm seriously thinking this might be a candidate for the 'should be odds on' thread on Saturday (currently 11/2) as it needs to win. I put it up as a good thing before and it didn't run its race but I've no doubt in its previous win. Might not make the cut but will have place prospects at worst if my figure for it is correct.

[Desert Orchid]

Kempton 1.50 - Rubaud 20/1, 4 places - the drift appears to have stopped and there's a bit of blue about him this morning. Keeping the faith...

[Slim]

Kempton 1.50 - Rubaud 20/1, 4 places - the drift appears to have stopped and there's a bit of blue about him this morning. Keeping the faith...

The rumour he was useless being reflected in the market.

[an capall]

It's a big ask to back a british horse in the county hurdle but I think
UP FOR PAROLE 50/1 coral 4p is a value bet.

Is that the each-way terms or the amount they'd allow bet?