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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #1001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I was reading the racing news and watched the charity race at goodwood today and DARK SHOT broke well and led all the way and I see it runs in the stewards cup consolation race and is getting lumps of weight so I cant resist 33/1 5 places skybet.

    Scott Dixon ew double
    Dark shot 33s
    Zargun 50/1
    What a run from DARK SHOT 3rd 50/1 only caught late on.

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  3. #1002
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.


    I'll take it. (And Tinto was fifth.)
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  5. #1003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
    What a shout! So glad you convinced me to put a decent bet on myself. Thanks so much and well done.

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    Desert Orchid (30th July 2022)

  7. #1004
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    Well done D I say through gritted teeth,

    £1 ew double
    Tabdeed 33s and Orbaan 28/1

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    My teeth are gritted for you, Outsider.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    My teeth are gritted for you, Outsider.
    At least we still had the first two for the thread. And I stuck yours in a ew Heinz but only 18/1 with 2 NRs and stone of destiny and one to come

    Again well done.

    Been a good week for the forum.

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    Well done guys, you don’t get many 25/1 winners to the pound, nor even 25/1 and 12/1 for an ew double. Hats off.
    Last edited by barjon; 30th July 2022 at 4:05 PM.

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  14. #1008
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The brother's been on the phone. He was on Tabdeed.

    He's not being very complimentary towards Hollie...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #1009
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    I'm not feeling complimemtary to highstreet bookmakers. Hills and Ladbrokes only did 6 places in their shops. Hills were going 8 places online.

    The same firm offering different terms for online and their shops is really perverse. Why can't they just align the two.

    One bet for me in the race which was Makanah. He's done me proud.
    Last edited by Marb; 30th July 2022 at 4:58 PM.

  16. #1010
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    Edit
    Last edited by Marb; 30th July 2022 at 4:30 PM.

  17. #1011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The brother's been on the phone. He was on Tabdeed.

    He's not being very complimentary towards Hollie...
    It's a split second decision and I thought she went the wrong way,there was room inside.
    That's racing.

  18. #1012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    The brother's been on the phone. He was on Tabdeed.

    He's not being very complimentary towards Hollie...
    It's a split second decision and I thought she went the wrong way,there was room inside.
    That's racing.

  19. #1013
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Doncaster 8.10 - Cockalorum 22/1, 5 places, BOG - this one has been mentioned in dispatches by both Outsider and myself this season on this thread. This race is a huge drop in class for it, offering a big pot for the class of race so every reason to be trying and I'm hoping it will give the horse the chance to get his head in front again.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  21. #1014
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    Oooh. This fits in well with my current topical betting system. There was a Lucy Worsley programme about Queen Anne on tv the other night and I’ve been attempting to sing the Steeleye Span song Cam ye oe’re fram France ever since ( they were my favourite folk group for years) and of course the lyrics include ‘hey for cockalorum’. Can’t lose can it ( ?)

  22. #1015
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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Oooh. This fits in well with my current topical betting system
    System won at Doncaster tonight at 9/1.

    Also entered to run at Haydock in the Sunday Series this Sunday where she could bid for a double.
    Last edited by Marb; 4th August 2022 at 6:26 PM.

  23. #1016
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    Oh no. I missed that one! (What a plonker…)
    Last edited by moehat; 4th August 2022 at 6:35 PM.

  24. #1017
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    …think I’m gonna need a better system..

  25. #1018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Doncaster 8.10 - Cockalorum 22/1, 5 places, BOG - this one has been mentioned in dispatches by both Outsider and myself this season on this thread. This race is a huge drop in class for it, offering a big pot for the class of race so every reason to be trying and I'm hoping it will give the horse the chance to get his head in front again.
    Beaten 2¼ lengths...




    ... into 7th

    Musta been a tight finish. I did have concerns about the trip but at least they probably now know he can win off his mark.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  26. #1019
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Saturday, Ascot 3.20 -Danehill Kodiac 40/1, 4 places - top on my ratings so, for me, shouldn't be anywhere near that kind of price and I can't see Christophe Lemaire being a negative.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  28. #1020
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ascot 1.00 - Pistoletto 33/1 - I dived in at 18/1 last night but will be going in again at this price or close to it if the BOGs kick in tomorrow. He put up seemingly a career best (supported by the clock) in a valuable 10f G3 on the All-Weather at Lingfield back in February and backed it up in a 12f handicap back there two runs later. Since then he’s been beaten over trips varying from 7f to 12f and it’s been on my mind that they’re aiming him at the Cambridgeshire. There’s now the chance that he might not make the cut off his mark so they might want to win this as they’re unlikely to go up too much for it. It isn’t as competitive as the numbers or pot suggest.

    Ascot 2.10 - Blue De Vega 25/1, 4 places, BOG - top on my figures so an each-way pop and hope for the best.

    I have another longshot in a later race but it's on the drift and I'm hoping for longer still in the morning. I'll put it on here then and I'll back these longshots in each-way multiples. You never know.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 5th August 2022 at 7:16 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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