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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #981
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Echo, lovely jubbly Outsider

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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

  3. #982
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    That's another one I owe ya bud !
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Well done, Outsider, with Orbaan. You called it ages ago!
    Thanks D.
    Cant be more happy.
    Myself and yorick have said all along this was the race and Omeara got it so well hcapped it was lucky to get in.
    Had the winner at 55/1
    2nd at 25/1
    4th at 33/1
    So a good watch for me.
    And I think Rhoscolyn was 5th.

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    King Klynch (29th July 2022), Len Madeiros (29th July 2022)

  7. #984
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Well done, Outsider, with Orbaan. You called it ages ago!
    Thanks D.
    Cant be more happy.
    Myself and yorick have said all along this was the race and Omeara got it so well hcapped it was lucky to get in.
    Had the winner at 55/1
    2nd at 25/1
    4th at 33/1
    So a good watch for me.
    And I think Rhoscolyn was 5th.

  8. #985
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    BRilliant stuff!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

  10. #986
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    Well done Outsider!
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

  12. #987
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    Outstanding stuff mate. Loved that.

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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

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    Well done Outsider. Nice form boost for one I fancy at Thirsk of all places tomorrow as well.

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    Outsider (29th July 2022)

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    Stewards cup

    ABOVE 50/1 BETFAIR 7 places

    5lb better off with invert park and was 2nd to Blackrod with a few of these behind and hes better off with them all except Summerghand.

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    Stewards cup

    ABOVE 50/1 BETFAIR 7 places

    5lb better off with invert park and was 2nd to Blackrod with a few of these behind and hes better off with them all except Summerghand.

  18. #991
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    Edit double post.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th July 2022 at 5:15 PM.

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    Well done Outsider, great tipping. Orbaan was a great pick.

    I think 25/1 is a really generous price on Makanah in the stewards cup. As a seven year old he's a healthy win strike rate of about 20 percent.

    For most of his career he has been campaigned at five furlongs but when he was tryed again at six furlongs over at York earlier this season he ran a blinder when just touched off by a very good horse on his day in Dakota Gold.

    Dakota Gold was rated as high as 111 at the start of last year so perhaps he ran near to that again at York or at least the form can be upgraded in which case Makanah ran a screamer off near enough level weights.

    It seems to me Makanah is in as good as form now as he's ever been. He's not been out the first four all season. There's a chance something elsewhere is better handicapped but 25/1 Makanah back at six furlongs on good to firm ground seems a great each way price.

    Good luck to those who got good prices on Whenthedealinsdone.
    Last edited by Marb; 29th July 2022 at 6:56 PM.

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  21. #993
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  23. #994
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've now committed to my main bet in the Stewards'Cup - Commanche Falls 20/1 (boosted to 22/1, 8 places) - it's a fairly hefty bet for such a race but my gut keeps pulling me back to it. It was a clear cut winner last year beating an O'Meara plot in Gulliver and Great Ambassador who won his next two before 'winning' on the wrong side of the Ayr Gold Cup, and is only 2lbs higher here. Great Ambassador is 11lbs higher. I presume it wasn't 'expected' first time up this season, going by the jockey booking, but might well have won had he been ridden more vigorously late in the race. He manged to avoid a rise in the weights for that. The trainer blamed the track for his disappointing run at Epsom and he got in trouble in the stalls in the Wokingham and unseated he was weak that day and I've thought all season he was being prepared for this. I do think the trainer has a very strong hand with Tinto fanciable at long odds too.
    Cant argue with that.

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    Double post
    Last edited by Outsider; 29th July 2022 at 6:01 PM.

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    All of a sudden it keeps double posting.

  26. #997
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    TABDEEL stewards cup 33/1 well drawn.
    Lost any chance at the start when 11/1 for the wokingham and then was favourite for a 5f hcap at Ascot in the race where whenthedealingsdone caught my eye.this 6f woll be better.skybet going 8 places.
    Has pricewise or Kealy put this up.now as low as 11/1 and best price 22s.

    It wont win though,as I've got it in a ew dble with Orbaan.

  27. #998
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Batwan and Coachello, both 40/1

    Batwan has been on my radar for a wee while but I didn't think it had a snowball's of getting in. It's a French raider with Hayley Turner booked. Not much went right for it in the Wokingham but it has since run a good second to Garrus in a G3 at Deauville so I'm interested that they're having another bash over here.

    I'd never heard of Coachello until this morning. I'd never even noticed it among the entries. But it's declared for this, its seasonal debut, by Irish wido John C McConnell. The chances are if it's fancied there will be a plunge. If not my dough is probably donald ducked.
    Money for Batwan, into 20s top and as low as 14s in a place.

    Coachello cut in a couple of places but still time...

    Always nice to get these movers onside early but it guarantees nothing, as Noble Dynasty proves
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  29. #999
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    All of the horses I’ve backed have high draws so I thought I’d back Gulliver at 50/1 to balance things out. Able Kane is my top pick ( I follow the Millman horses anyway) and I back most horses that Saffie rides. Can’t ignore Summerghand either. Really enjoying this weeks racing!

  30. #1000
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    All of the horses I’ve backed have high draws so I thought I’d back Gulliver at 50/1 to balance things out. Able Kane is my top pick ( I follow the Millman horses anyway) and I back most horses that Saffie rides. Can’t ignore Summerghand either. Really enjoying this weeks racing!

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