Page 49 of 72 FirstFirst ... 39444546474849505152535459 ... LastLast
Results 961 to 980 of 1440

Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #961
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Then escobar goes and wins and we go kick O Mearas cat!
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  2. #962
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Then escobar goes and wins and we go kick O Mearas cat!
    Or shelir lol.

  3. #963
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Yes. From the email stuff I put out earlier:

    O’Meara is mob-handed and I suspect Tudhope has allowed the draw to dictate his option for Blue For You (14/1) who has strong place prospects and will carry a saver. I don’t really want to back anything with a double-digit draw but I have total respect for Sinjaari (10/1). The other bet will be Young Fire (25/1), also for O’Meara.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #964
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    I’m taking two at big odds against the field in the Galway Hurdle.

    The Very Man @ 40/1 & Tudor City @ 20/1
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  5. The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to wilsonl For This Useful Post:

    barjon (28th July 2022), Beef or Salmon (28th July 2022), Desert Orchid (28th July 2022), King Klynch (28th July 2022), moehat (28th July 2022)

  6. #965
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Goodwood 1.50 - Blue Trail 25/1, 5 places, BOG - I mentioned on the main Goodwood thread that I had the three Godolphins in the top two ratings. Blue Trail is actually top. The fact that Buick and Doyle ride the other two is all the more reason to fancy them but 25s to 5 places is far too big for this one. He's 9lbs better off with Wanees (7/1 here) for 2¼ lengths at Sandown the time before last and is arguably more likely to be suited by today's trip. He's been gelded since running a wee bit below par at Ascot. This might be a prep for something later in the summer but I'm also curious that they've called up Dettori for the ride.

    I'll probably also chuck some loose change at the Godolphins in a tricast.

    Edit - clipped to 22s while I was typing that up. Still 25s in a couple of lists but only to 4 places.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th July 2022 at 11:51 AM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  7. #966
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Looks like there might be lots of potential value bets in the Stewards' Cup.

    They haven't done the draw yet but if you order the field by RPR then, of the top 15 ratings, ie over half the field and only 2lbs between them, ten are priced between 20/1 and 50/1.

    It's almost scary
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #967
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    They've still not revealed the draw but I've decided to get a couple onside early:

    Batwan and Coachello, both 40/1

    Batwan has been on my radar for a wee while but I didn't think it had a snowball's of getting in. It's a French raider with Hayley Turner booked. Not much went right for it in the Wokingham but it has since run a good second to Garrus in a G3 at Deauville so I'm interested that they're having another bash over here.

    I'd never heard of Coachello until this morning. I'd never even noticed it among the entries. But it's declared for this, its seasonal debut, by Irish wido John C McConnell. The chances are if it's fancied there will be a plunge. If not my dough is probably donald ducked.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th July 2022 at 1:29 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  9. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (28th July 2022)

  10. #968
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Goodwood 1.50 - Blue Trail 25/1, 5 places, BOG - I mentioned on the main Goodwood thread that I had the three Godolphins in the top two ratings. Blue Trail is actually top. The fact that Buick and Doyle ride the other two is all the more reason to fancy them but 25s to 5 places is far too big for this one. He's 9lbs better off with Wanees (7/1 here) for 2¼ lengths at Sandown the time before last and is arguably more likely to be suited by today's trip. He's been gelded since running a wee bit below par at Ascot. This might be a prep for something later in the summer but I'm also curious that they've called up Dettori for the ride.

    I'll probably also chuck some loose change at the Godolphins in a tricast.

    Edit - clipped to 22s while I was typing that up. Still 25s in a couple of lists but only to 4 places.
    Close second to the main bet. I'll take it.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Len Madeiros (28th July 2022), moehat (28th July 2022), Outsider (28th July 2022)

  12. #969
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    TABDEEL stewards cup 33/1 well drawn.
    Lost any chance at the start when 11/1 for the wokingham and then was favourite for a 5f hcap at Ascot in the race where whenthedealingsdone caught my eye.this 6f woll be better.skybet going 8 places.

  13. #970
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    1,272
    Thanks
    628
    Thanked 489 Times in 302 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I’m taking two at big odds against the field in the Galway Hurdle.

    The Very Man @ 40/1 & Tudor City @ 20/1
    Well played mate.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Danny For This Useful Post:

    wilsonl (28th July 2022)

  15. #971
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts


    Excellent, wilsonl.

    I vowed last year never to look at Galway again but thought about following you in. Got caught up in studying for Saturday and completely forgot. Well done and another lovely winner for the thread.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    wilsonl (28th July 2022)

  17. #972
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Surrey
    Posts
    3,722
    Thanks
    414
    Thanked 790 Times in 572 Posts
    Thanks guys. Recovered Tuesday & Wednesday’s Goodwood losses.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  18. #973
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    1,011
    Thanks
    438
    Thanked 298 Times in 241 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post


    Excellent, wilsonl.

    I vowed last year never to look at Galway again but thought about following you in. Got caught up in studying for Saturday and completely forgot. Well done and another lovely winner for the thread.
    The Galway thread this year i would guess is probably one of the most lucrative ever on here. Started in style with Echoes and Rain and has gone from strength to strength.

  19. #974
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    That would be typical of my luck, BoS, but I'm not one to blindly follow others' selections and there's too much sh1t happening around me outside racing that I need to narrow my focus for the time being.

    Anyhow, another one I've backed on Saturday:

    Barstewards' Cup - Typhoon Ten 66/1, 6 places, BOG - Hannon doesn't seem to target this race the way his father did but I'm curious about this one turning up here for its seasonal debut. I don't imagine he really expected to make the cut and maybe had the consolation race in mind for it but it gets in near the bottom. It was an improver through last summer and fairly hacked up at Lingfield (downhill) in August over 7f, clear a furlong out. Its next run was probably too soon (seven days) and its final run was in the Ayr Silver Cup when it got upset in the stalls, missed the break and the saddle slipped. I just wonder why they've held it back until now but it has four entries over the next few days so they clearly want it to run somewhere and maybe they've just fallen lucky getting into this. Maybe they feel they need to get it up the handicap for the Ayr Gold Cup? At the price I don't mind paying to find out.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #975
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    4,194
    Thanks
    562
    Thanked 1,222 Times in 620 Posts
    Sometimes I will throw in a silly long shot just to “tidy up” my account. (I like to put it to bed with a round number which sounds a bit anal )
    So today my last bet was £1.20 ew on a Karl Burke horse called Run Simba. I rate Karl and I liked the name. It was 28-1 when I backed it but Betfair (bless em!) pushed it out to 66-1 It was fourth so they paid out...yay! Actually I didn’t see the race but it gets the comment “eyecatcher” so clearly I shall follow its career closely now.....
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  21. #976
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    1,011
    Thanks
    438
    Thanked 298 Times in 241 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    That would be typical of my luck, BoS, but I'm not one to blindly follow others' selections and there's too much sh1t happening around me outside racing that I need to narrow my focus for the time being.
    Ah yeah get that, there is only one poster here that I follow blindly and it's definitely not something I would advocate in general. I think most of the selections in the Galway thread were accompanied by a reasoned analysis etc. but at the end of the day its an individual decision, I find selections posted here as a great starting point and a way in to a race and work backwards from there.

  22. The Following User Says Thank You to Beef or Salmon For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (28th July 2022)

  23. #977
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    4,673
    Thanks
    4,072
    Thanked 1,108 Times in 979 Posts
    Blog Entries
    538
    I was reading the racing news and watched the charity race at goodwood today and DARK SHOT broke well and led all the way and I see it runs in the stewards cup consolation race and is getting lumps of weight so I cant resist 33/1 5 places skybet.

    Scott Dixon ew double
    Dark shot 33s
    Zargun 50/1

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    King Klynch (30th July 2022)

  25. #978
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Gwd 4.10 - Desert Encounter 20/1 ew without Rebel's Romance - I thought there was a glimmer of promise that the old ability might still be there on his reappearance. I'd rather take this bet than 40s to three places in the main market cos I just can't see him actually winning the race but he could be second on his best form.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  26. #979
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    2,903
    Thanks
    775
    Thanked 229 Times in 179 Posts
    I quite often throw some pennies on the rank outsider in some races, unless it’s obviously a complete no hoper. But I’ve only just noticed that you can get an extra place at reduced odds on W Hill, something worth doing if it’s a massive price and might sneak into 4th or 5th.

  27. #980
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Well done, Outsider, with Orbaan. You called it ages ago!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  28. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    2017diary (29th July 2022), Outsider (29th July 2022)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •