The 2022 Longshot Thread

[Outsider]

SUMMERGHAND was my big bet of the week at 25/1 so I'm happy as I also had it in a lucky 15 with INTELLOGENT and TACTICAL but only at Sp.in corals shop where they hadnt got a price on tactical,25/1 on line only.
Still a good profit.

[Desert Orchid]

[Desert Orchid]

I need Sun King and Falcon Eight to hit the frame for a 360/1 acc...

Any Hail Marys gratefully accepted

Ooh, just seen that Summerghand got fifth so that's a second 300-odd/1 acc waiting on the last two.

Still going...

Keep them Hail Marys coming!

[Outsider]

Still going...

Keep them Hail Marys coming!

Good luck D

[Desert Orchid]

Final pop of the meeting - Urban Artist 20/1

[Desert Orchid]

Assume I'm getting paid for FE being fourth. Just not sure about the non-runner's impact.

Still, it was a grand wee journey

[Len Madeiros]

A belated thank you for putting me onto Rohaan, DO. I like previous winners of races so much that I had £3 on Stratum in the last, too!

[Desert Orchid]

[moehat]

I looked at 16.59 and figured Rohaan might be the closest you'll ever see to a good thing in a Wokingham. Got it on with seconds to spare. Nice one, Desert. I missed the 25s but 18-1 got me out of trouble on the day.
My internet connection keeps going down and it happened yet again just as I was trying to put a bet on Apollo something or other which had gone blue on oddschecker. So it wasn’t until after the race till I could find out if I had backed Rohaan. Thankfully I had. With having to sort out my crumbling brickwork and a dodgy internet connection I’ve relied on this thread ( and oddschecker when possible) to get bets on early. I wish I’d been able to devote more time to the racing and must admit to having enjoyed it more than Cheltenham, the main reason being it’s been great to see a variety of owners, jockeys and trainers winning races.
Good luck with the next ones.

[swedishchef]

2.25 Southwell - Tickity Amber 25/1 small e/way, this fillies mother won a bumper first time out as a 4y old. Trainer in form and has a 30% place rate with bumper runners over the last 5 years including 3 winners.

[chaumi]

2.25 Southwell - Tickity Amber 25/1 small e/way, this fillies mother won a bumper first time out as a 4y old. Trainer in form and has a 30% place rate with bumper runners over the last 5 years including 3 winners.

Caught my eye, too, Swedish. Especially the blood line with both Beat Hollow and Tikkanen making an appearance, but yeah the Stuart Edmunds/Gethings link is another positive. You might not expect a youngster with that line to be doing much till he/she gets softer ground and probably further (especially if there is any strong Tikkanen influence). Though maybe the mum will offset that and well noted.

I had it marked as a 'hope this one goes down and then we'll get it in a 2/2 and a half mile maiden or novice hurdle later in the year, perhaps on heavy ground.' An Edmunds hurdler ridden by Gethings on heavy ground is a 40-1 shot to savour!

There are a handful of other trainers you could easily see landing this. Emma Lavelle's took the eye and could be anything. Tom Lacey would definitely not be a surprise. Plenty more. Indeed, I could only rule out four of the fourteen!

Good luck, will watch with interest.

Edit: BTW just noticed - Mum didn't just win a bumper FTO.....it was a Newbury bumper with runners from many of the usual suspects (can't remember, I may even have backed her) ....and followed by a good run in a Cheltenham class 4.

The plot thickens!

[chaumi]

Ah, that's a shame. She's out.

[moehat]

Wise Eagle ( the legend that is ) is down to run in the Northumberland Plate Just going to check his price. Go on Eagle…!….33/1

[chaumi]

Lady Wolf 6.20 Newton Abbott 80-1 B3

Are you joking me? 80-1 in a 6-runner race where you can rule two out with reasonable confidence.

Look at the Class 3 two races ago. Lady got close enough to 1-6 fav Largy G over the same CD. The fourth (Henderson) won a (all be it weakish) handicap since. The second could yet prove she's up to reasonable handicap level in future.

The Skelton runner has been thrashed by Largy G in the past. That doesn't necessarily mean a lot in the context of this. Of course, she looks the one to beat and it will be tough. She could win 20 lengths and no one will blink. The Ben Case runner can't be underestimated, equally Tom George's.

Snowden is down as saying his will improve for the run. We'll take that to not mean the improvement will come off the back of a FTO win. By Shirocco, you can expect this one to be going in somewhere over the summer/autumn. Hopefully, not today. We'll assume the Polly Gundry horse will need the experience.

So..Lady's last run over 3 miles +...she ran out of steam. Have to ignore. Back at the distance of the previous race, 80-1 EW to get in the first two seems worth a go. It's been a long time since Haywood got me a 100-1 + winner, it's only a matter of time till the next one. I'd have preferred that opportunity to present itself in a class 4 or 5 handicap (and it may well do)...but it's not too hard to visualize a future Lady Wolf running at Class 3 handicap level.

EDIT just gone 100-1

[viking]

You’ve convinced me to use a free bet on this one. The race she ran in behind Largy G was a slow enough time for good ground so may well have been flattered but she must have a chance of being in the first two


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Desert Orchid]

Northumberland Plate - Uber Cool 40/1 - I'm hopeful that the listing of a jockey (Robert Tart, stable jockey) at this point is a sign that this is an intended runner. The lack of a run this season is a slight worry but Jane Chapple-Hyam had a terrific Ascot with two winners and a 40/1 second from three runners so the stable in general is at least in blinding form and the horse did win on its reappearance last season after two and a half years off. I reckon the horse should be less than half that price.

[chaumi]

I've got a text......

[chaumi]

Oh, it's from Lady Wolf.

She said '' yeah, Viking was kind of right, I did have more of a chance in that race cos they went quite slow. But still, if it hadn't been so hot I would have run them much closer today.

Sorry, but I will make it up. Wait till I get in a handicap, this one might mean you'll still get 33 and they won't see which way I went!''

[swedishchef]

Newmarket 1.25 Tabsheer 40/1 small e/way (13/1 e/way 1/4 odds 4 places on sportsbook as a stake saver) He may have been btn 10L's on his only run but I believe it was a classier race than the one the fav ran in. I believe he was just outclassed by Redemption time who split Walbank & Royal Scotsmen on his previous run. (How good is Noble Style?) Redemption Time was unlucky in running in the Norfolk Stakes as well. So no disgrace In my book the selection was btn 10L by him first time out. If the selection does run well I will be watching out for the 2nd and 3rd in his last race. I ran the videos of fav and selection's last race simultaneously from 3Furlongs out as one was 5f and the 6f. All 4 of the runners in the selections race finished well ahead. Not a perfect science I know as fav race was at Chester. However selection was carrying 5lb more and all the mares progeny have won races and breeding suggest an extra furlong will help. Trainer is 2 wins and 2 places from 11 2yo runners on turf. This is why I feel the odds are too big and represent value. Sorry about the essay.

[chaumi]

Essays are great. Fill your boots!