The 2022 Longshot Thread

[Desert Orchid]

I've added Ajero 25/1, boosted to 28s, 5 places and BOG. Could be totally unexposed on the Flat and has hit a nice curve over hurdles.

[KD] Reappears in the Chookie Embra on Friday, which might explain that modest run, for which he's been dropped another 3lbs to 97. The stable is in flying form and he won a decent Class 2 off 105 in July 2019. If he's here I presume he's in good form at home. I've gone in again at 66/1. If he lengthens or place terms improve by Friday I might go in again

(I've since gone in again on KD at 125/1, 6pl,

Getting closer...

These place returns are starting to add up

[barjon]

Nice

[Desert Orchid]

3.40 - Brilliant Light 22/1, 6 places - back in form and very well in on older form.

Second, fourth, fifth with the longshots in the one race and also had the sixth (Sir Rumi).

[Outsider]

Second, fourth, fifth with the longshots in the one race and also had the sixth (Sir Rumi).

And I had 1st and 3rd lol.
My first winner of the week I think.

[Desert Orchid]

And a super winner too. No wonder Hayley Turner (or was Megan Nicholls?) was so keen on it. She must have had word.

[chaumi]

Kelly's at 230 would have been a great way to break a Royal Ascot handicap duck. Worth it for the adrenaline shot as they came round the bend!! What a great run.

The EW treble on Flotus, Kelly's, and Ivory is going to pay for my lad's tins of custard and fish n chip dinners for quite some time! Inspired stuff, Desert and Swedish. Cheers.

[Desert Orchid]

Friday, Sandringham Hcap - Minwah 50/1, 6 places - thinking a wee bit laterally here. Haggas has two in the race in Persist 12/1 tops and blue, and Morgan Fairy, 40s tops but blue and shorter generally. Marquand could probably do the weight on the former if it had a really serious chance but not the latter. So why is he allowed off to ride Minwah, a recruit from the Middle East having her first run for Marco Botti, who is no mug. I'm curious as much as anything else, and enough to back up the hunch with a small bet.

I don't like the draw but I've gone in again at 150/1. I presume the draw is responsible bt they're talking about some of the better horses being drawn high.

[swedish chef]

Ascot 6.10 Khunan - close to his stablemate Perfect Power in the Norfolk last year. A repeat of that and his mark may look lenient. Drawn 27 but it looks like the draw may now be favouring the high numbers?

[Desert Orchid]

6.10 - Bond Chairman 40/1, 7 places - left field selection, hasn't run this season so the handicapper has no idea if he's improved a lot. Neither do I but don't mind paying out a little to find out He was gelded last back-end.

[Desert Orchid]

6.10 - Bond Chairman 40/1, 7 places - left field selection, hasn't run this season so the handicapper has no idea if he's improved a lot. Neither do I but don't mind paying out a little to find out He was gelded last back-end.

Covered the other bets. A Joe Hart save

[Marb]

Well done again, DO.
I have enjoyed the meeting today best day by far for a few reasons.

Looking forward to tomorrow.

[moehat]

Well done. I missed some of these ( got a problem with me masonry and was having to sort it out before I go on holiday) but managed to back a few. Thanks.

[Desert Orchid]

For the same reasons...

Saturday, 2.30 - Sunningdale 80/1, 4 places (and 100/1 3 places)

In to 50s tops, blue across the board and just 22/1 with Hills. Promising move.

[Desert Orchid]

Saturday 5.35 - Splendent 20/1, 6 places - Connections won this with their only previous runner and seasonal debutant Highland Chief (20/1) so I'm guessing this one has improved enough through the winter to fancy their barra here. Ben Curtis is an interesting booking.

Didn't make the cut. The one I've backed in its stead doesn't qualify for the thread.

[Desert Orchid]

Didn't make the cut. The one I've backed in its stead doesn't qualify for the thread.

It does now: Bushfire 20/1, 5 places. It's my main bet in the race.

[chaumi]

Wokingham - Ventura Tormenta 40/1, 7 places - one question just keeps nagging me: why? Why are they running it in this mega-competitive event on its first run for two years, the stable's only runner in the race when they tend to be mob-handed in these races. I think they have a better record in the Stewards' Cup and this might be a prep for that. VT was raised to 107 for winning the G1 Papin as a 2yo and probably wasn't over that when last in the G2 Phoenix Stakes. He came back a bit in the 5f Flying Childers and finished off eased down over seven furlongs. It's all supposin', but supposin' he had come out as a three-year-old and progressed 7lbs? (The weight for age scale says 3yos should improve 16lbs from March to October.) He probably wouldn't be good enough for the G1s and G2s, notwithstanding the fact that he is already a G1 winner, but they've smuggled him in here off 100. He has winning form on Good-Firm and a middle draw which can help tow him into the race... assuming this is a serious target. I can't resist it.

Quote Middleham Park (wasn't dated but seems fairly recent by the wording)......

Training Update: A Group 2 Prix Robert Papin winner as a 2yo in 2021. He’s had quite serious injuries as a 3yo, including having a screw placed in a sesamoid joint. Lots of horses have those and win races (I think Commander In Chief won the Derby, with one in). Very sound now, and trotting nicely at Richard Hannon’s. He’s probably still a Group horse, or a Wokingham type of horse, at the very least if he stays sound. A risky one, but, with luck on your side, he’s an inexpensive route to top races at top tracks.

And from Hannon..........

He’s been off for almost two years but was a very good juvenile and on his homework I still believe he has retained all of his ability. This is obviously a big ask on his first run but he’s been away several times so is as straight as we can get him without actual match practice but he’s a big burly colt so will definitely improve for the run. It’s his first run in a Handicap and it’ll be interesting to see how well treated he is off a mark of 100

[Desert Orchid]

Saturday, 2.30 - Sunningdale 80/1, 4 places (and 100/1 3 places)

Now 25s tops. I'll probably lay off the win portion to no risk.

[Desert Orchid]

Platinum Jubilee - Emaraaty Ana 33/1, 6 places, BOG - won the Sprint Cup on fast ground, beating 120-rated evens fav Starman. The latter might have been just shy of his best on the day but couldn't fault the winner's effort. I would have Emaraaty Ana in the top five of the betting so the price is just wrong.

Edit - I've gone in again at 20/1 (3 places) w/o Home Affairs.

[Desert Orchid]

Two more pops at the Wokingham - Summerghand 20/1, 7 places & Bielsa 28/1, 7 places (both BOG) - they are top and third top respectively on my ratings* but I was letting them go because of their draws (27 & 30) but the later races yesterday suggested the draw favouring middle-to-high. They've chucked on more water than on previous evenings so it might reverse again but that will be an unknown until we see it for real.

Fair play, though, to the ground staff. When was the last time this meeting was run on genuinely fast ground? Hopefully the over-watering is a thing of the past. I've never objected to 'watering to maintain' or promote grass growth.


*Rohaan is second top and I put him up earlier in the week at 25/1 because the two above had 'bad' draws.

Edit - final pop at the race: Apollo One 33/1, 7 places, BOG - currently handicapped to win an average C2 Saturday handicap on his best form so I'm hoping the claimer's 5lb will let him be competitive with the bandits.

[swedishchef]

Perth 1.42 Zihuatanejo 50/1 small e/way - Selection was beaten 6L by Champagne Platinum in an Irish PTP 4years ago, then won an Irish PTP 2 years ago. He was then 2nd fav for a Fairyhouse maiden Hurdle but was struck into and finished lame. He then finished last of 6 in a class 3 Novice hurdle 3 weeks ago for Sandy Forster, 19L behind Ted Hastings who finished 2nd. Ted Hastings won his previous race beating 3 of todays runners very easily and those runners are 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the betting. The selection will not have to improve much to be competitive and is bred for the game. The negatives are the possible bounce, or may be going for a h'cap mark but the price offsets the risk for me.