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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #61
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Festival 3m6f Novices Chase - Annual Invictus 66/1 - also holds an entry in the [ex] RSA for which he's the same price but that will be a very hot race and, on breeding, I think might improve significantly for the longer trip. A winning pointer over 3m (aren't they all?), he's been kept to 2.5m and shorter under rules so far and wasn't beaten at all far in the Betfair Hurdle, which is strong form. I reckon a lot of Irish trainers would have steered a similar path with him, not asking him too much until into his chasing career and anticipating progress for a trip over fences. I reckon there's more chance of the field for this race cutting up than the RSA and, while I might just be throwing away my money, the stakes are modest for a low-risk-high-reward punt.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    From the 2021 Thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've no idea if they plan to run him this weekend in the Betfair Chase or wait for the Hennessy but, either way, I've taken Royale Pagaille at 50/1 for the Gold Cup.

    It strikes me that his price is down to his not running his race in this year's race and could be completely wrong.

    He's still a very young horse and still entitled to improve significantly into this season. He wouldn't need to win either at Haydock or Newbury, just run very well and his price will contract.

    It may also be that he's very ground dependent, which would be the main worry for me as I think it could be a dry winter (based on the long-term forecasts I've checked).

    I still believe he is a 175-180 horse waiting to happen and that would put him right in the mix.
    I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  5. #63
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    My a/p Cheltenham bets.
    THE JAM MAN pertemps hurdle 33/1
    SHANTREUSSE alfred bartlett 66/1
    ONTHEROPES national hunt chase 25/1
    SIRUH DU LAC pp plate 40/1
    DUFFLE COAT coral cup 33/1
    CABOT CLIFFS county hurdle npa yet.

    Dont know if they will run but on my previous experiences they probably wont.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    From the 2021 Thread:



    I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
    Good luck DO though I am not sure Venetias horse is coming into the Peter Marsh this year in the same form as last season. Remastered was well held the last day by a 126 rated horse.

    I am fairly sweet on Kalooki if he is indeed declared. He didn't jump that fluently the last day and looked beat several times but still got up to win.

    Looks to me like he can put in a lifetime best in this and can go very close. Happy with the 10s I took earlier. I reckon I will get an excellent run for my money. I think he will enjoy getting weight off your fancy. Looking forward to it anyway whatever happens.
    Last edited by Marb; 19th January 2022 at 2:25 AM.

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    Great way to get the Willie Mullins' novices on side cheaply.

    Dysart Dynamo (Supreme)
    Sir Gerhard (Ballymore)

    26/1 the double will do me. 24/1 ok too.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Lingfield Friday 3.35 - Destrier 33/1 - Hard to know what to make of this one but it's a very valuable prize and Skelton is more than capable of putting one away for a race like this. Destrier gets to run off 117 here but had a chase OR of 151 at one stage so he could be very well handicapped if they can coax him back to some kind of form. The 7lbs claimer looks like he carries a fair bit of trust and is the third most successful rider for the stable. That allowance might not do him any harm. Obviously not my main bet in the race but worth a pop, I reckon.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  11. #67
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    Lingfield 1.50 - Beaufort West 50/1, 3 pl - next to no chance on his two runs this season but was a close second off 128 the last time he encountered heavy ground and he might just need these conditions. He's off 115 here. Page Fuller rode him last season and takes over for the first time this. Three places in a seven-runner race nails the value element.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Lingfield Friday 3.35 - Destrier 33/1 - Hard to know what to make of this one but it's a very valuable prize and Skelton is more than capable of putting one away for a race like this. Destrier gets to run off 117 here but had a chase OR of 151 at one stage so he could be very well handicapped if they can coax him back to some kind of form. The 7lbs claimer looks like he carries a fair bit of trust and is the third most successful rider for the stable. That allowance might not do him any harm. Obviously not my main bet in the race but worth a pop, I reckon.
    Wow. Thanks for that! Nodded off ( it’s my age y’know) and missed the last race. Woke up to find it had placed at 66/1!No: think I got 150/1….glad I waited till today to back it
    Last edited by moehat; 21st January 2022 at 5:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Wow. Thanks for that! Nodded off ( it’s my age y’know) and missed the last race. Woke up to find it had placed at 66/1!No: think I got 150/1….glad I waited till today to back it
    I didnt.bet365 only paid 4 places only a neck off 4th.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I didnt.bet365 only paid 4 places only a neck off 4th.
    Oh no. Gutting. I only realised WHill were paying first 5 when I woke up. And I nearly backed it last night and would have missed out on BOG: I thought if I didn’t do it last night I would forget but then forgot I’d backed it today. You win some you lose some, I guess. I backed Top Ville Ben at the last minute as well as I usually follow the Kirby horses so it’s been a rare good day for me today. There was a pattern a while back where, if I had a bet on the last race of the day but didn’t listen to it it would win. Maybe I’ll go back to that again.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Were Hills going first 5??

    I was out from about the back of 11am and only just got back in. I watched the replay without knowing the result and was happy enough that it ran well into 5th. Then I saw the price!

    I'd have got the BOG with Bet365 but not the 5th place!

    Still, I'm fair chuffed that you managed to get a very decent return from it
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  19. #72
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    Stag Horn has not been entered for the Ballymore so if he does go for the AB that 33/1 DO took is looking like a fair bet but one worry is Skybet have pushed him back out to 20/1
    on the bright side he's only 14/1 on the exchange and layers are being very cautious. If Archie Watson comes out and says he goes for definite I can see him hitting single figures.

    No Blackjack Ketchum or Bobsworth to worry about he might just be on to something
    Formely Fist of Fury

  20. #73
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    Haydock 1.25 - Pikar 20/1 w/o Jonbon (2pl) - this one is very weak in the market (I think 12/1 was the top price in this market last night) but he interests me. Only beaten a length by Knappers Hill first time up and not far off the lead when tipping up last time, he's potentially over-priced. If the big drift (33/1 to 66/1 in the main market) is a true reflection of stable confidence he's already just about last but Destrier drifted ominously yesterday. Knowing my luck, it will finish fourth.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  21. #74
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Haydock 2.35 - Lake View Lad 20/1, 4 places - last night I wrote elsewhere:

    I don’t need to back Royale Pagaille (11/4) as I’m on him for the Gold Cup at 50/1 (more than once) so the win will see his price shorten and that will do me. Sam Brown (11/1) hacked up in the novice chase at this meeting two years ago and is lightly raced since. In theory he’s possibly still open to improvement but probably not the notional 10lbs I’d allow for novices into seasoned campaigners. Lord Du Mesnil (10/1) might have this as his seasonal target since he’s tried the National and bombed but he’s vulnerable to the favourite and others. Empire Steel (4/1) is rated the winner of an average renewal of his last race but there are no guarantees that he would have won. Backing him is a matter of backing one’s own view of that race. I was never convinced Remastered (9/2) would have won the Hennessy and his recent run reinforced that view. It’s possible that race was too soon after Newbury, though, so I wouldn’t try and put off those who thought he’d have won there. Lake View Lad has done virtually nothing since beating Santini, Native River and Frodon at Aintree thirteen months ago, for which he went up to 162, so his 16lbs lower mark here and price (18/1 and lengthening) make him tempting. But I do hope Royale Pagaille proves too good.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  23. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Haydock 1.25 - Pikar 20/1 w/o Jonbon (2pl) - this one is very weak in the market (I think 12/1 was the top price in this market last night) but he interests me. Only beaten a length by Knappers Hill first time up and not far off the lead when tipping up last time, he's potentially over-priced. If the big drift (33/1 to 66/1 in the main market) is a true reflection of stable confidence he's already just about last but Destrier drifted ominously yesterday. Knowing my luck, it will finish fourth.
    Dropped back quite dramatically turning for home, looking all over the 66/1 (or longer) shot, before finishing well into fifth. Probably after a handicap mark.

    I'll get that money back some day.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I have no idea if the 2021 thread ended up showing a profit but it was a lot of fun along the way and found a fair old number of winners and loads of placed runners.

    Time to start a new one for this calendar year.

    At the moment I don't have one for Saturday but I'm going to start this thread with a truly mental one, one which probably won't even run, but it's one I like and the odds are genuinely long.

    2022 Champion Hurdle - Tommy's Oscar 100/1 - only two firms are pricing him up - none were last night - but if they're even thinking about the Champion Hurdle for him then they could pick tomorrow's handicap at Musselburgh easily. Alternatively, they could save him for the Betfair Hurdle as he could have the winning of that too, if my figure for him is accurate. (Big if, on all counts.)

    Either way, I think this fella is a lot better than his current 150 mark. I accept he'll need to be 20lbs better than that to beat Honeysuckle but 15lbs would put him in the mix with the best of the others. Even 15lbs is a big ask but I reckon he's already 10lbs better so maybe he only has another 5lbs to find.

    He only got in front late last time but it was a slow-slow-fast race in much softer ground than the time before at Haydock when they went fast on decent ground and he hacked up. The later race might also have come a fraction soon but the Haydock race is the one for which I have a very big mark for him. It was a deep field, all trying, and they went fast but he picked them up effortlessly from not far off the pace and sauntered clear.

    If he wins tomorrow and they even mention the Champion Hurdle, the bookies will introduce or cut him to 50s, less if he's very impressive.

    And all this is before I've even started my Hogmaneigh bevvy.
    Fair play to you for putting him up when you did Maurice. Credit is where credit is due.

    I am starting to really like this horse.

    He deserves his place in the Champion Hurdle line up win lose or draw.
    Last edited by Marb; 22nd January 2022 at 3:10 PM.

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  27. #77
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    Cheers, Marb.

    Hughes and Woods somewhat killed that race today as a meaningful contest with that stupid pace. I'd have been raging if I'd backed either. That furlong turning for home was about 10 seconds!

    What I will say is that Global Citizen goes straight into my tracker for doing so well in the circumstances.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Cheers, Marb.

    Hughes and Woods somewhat killed that race today as a meaningful contest with that stupid pace. I'd have been raging if I'd backed either. That furlong turning for home was about 10 seconds!

    What I will say is that Global Citizen goes straight into my tracker for doing so well in the circumstances.
    Yes good point about Global Citizen.

    I think he was on my radar as a good horse a year or two ago. He did have another wind operation recently and he looked much happier today.
    Last edited by Marb; 22nd January 2022 at 3:17 PM.

  29. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    From the 2021 Thread:

    {Royale Pagaille 50/1}

    I've gone in again with this fella at 33/1 NRNB/BOG ahead of an anticipated win at Haydock on Saturday. The ground should be heavy enough for him to perform and he finished with an injury last time as well. It may well be that he's fragile in that regard but he was still very impressive here last year and the stable could hardly be in better form now.
    I was hoping for an easier win than that but Sam Brown is no mug. Still, the price has shortened as anticipated so no complaints.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Fantastic ride from Charlie Deutsch

    Well picked DO although hed need to be pulling further clear of Sam Brown to be a serious GC contender. Still should be a decent cash out or lay opportunity


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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