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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #641
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Totally outclassed, as the price suggested.

    Oh well. We move on.
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  2. #642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    [Gioia Cieca] Hit the front two out that day before dropping back again and reappears over a mile at York today (5.05). This is a much lesser race and the horse is maybe under-exposed at this mile trip. On breeding he should get it comfortably. I should stress that I haven't studied the race and this is just following the logic that if I was prepared to back it in a race like the Victoria Cup then I should be prepared to back it off a lower (1lb) mark in a less difficult race. I've taken 28/1 to 6 places.
    Never put in the race.

    I want to see the race again (I watched with the sound off s Mrs O was watching TV) because there was one wearing red colours that was a complete non-trier, the jockey almost standing in the stirrups to administer exaggerated fresh-air swipes of the whip. Might have been Devilwala or the Global horse.
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  3. #643
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    ZARGUN 22/1 535y
    Went into my alerts when running on over 5f yesterday.
    Good 2nd.

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  6. #645
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    Another poke at the Derby:

    Buckaroo 66/1 - I'm pretty sure this was only about 20/1 on Saturday but his defeat in the Irish Guineas has seen him pushed out. I wonder if it's an over-reaction as the horse came back with a minor injury. I suppose that means it might not run, which is always the risk, but he was previously in front of Wexford Native which was fourth the other day. Had he finished four lengths in front of the Bolger horse the other day I don't think the price would have contracted and on breeding he looks likely to improve for stepping up in trip.
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  7. #646
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    Beverley 3.40 Freddie Robinson 25/1 - A reproduction of his form in his first two 2yo races would see him go close.

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  9. #647
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedishchef View Post
    Beverley 3.40 Freddie Robinson 25/1 - A reproduction of his form in his first two 2yo races would see him go close.
    A fairly bullish but equally non-committal quote from Ellison before the first run last year...............

    "We’ve got a handful of nice-looking juveniles in and the best of the bunch could be FREDDY ROBINSON who is named after my grandson. He’s a nice horse. He’s a colt by Adaay and he’s showing all the right signs so we’ll see how he goes. He might be one more for six or seven furlongs and we could start him over six at Pontefract this week but I’ll also consider Beverley on Saturday too as running over five on soft ground is an option too. "

    The Adaay connection is interesting to me. fwiw Cam Hardie has had a lot of rides for Ellison but not the winner ratio you might have hoped for, although you could argue he seems to be improving as a jockey (with increasing experience).
    Last edited by chaumi; 25th May 2022 at 11:34 AM. Reason: typo

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  11. #648
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedishchef View Post
    Beverley 3.40 Freddie Robinson 25/1 - A reproduction of his form in his first two 2yo races would see him go close.
    For info, was well up in the mid-high 40s and maybe even into the 50s BF the last time I looked while they were still inspecting the course. Suggests wouldn't have been ready today. Hopefully, by the next run, Ellison will be back to giving out runner updates.

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  13. #649
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    TheFlyingGinger 2.50 Rip 40 B365

    I can't judge the pace of that York race last year. So, did they just give TFG too much rope off a slow pace?

    There's a chance similar could happen here, with the majority looking like they prefer to come from behind. In fact, the only obvious other front runner is Forest Falcon.

    You'd think there is a chance they'll take each other on and both die a death from it in the last furlong. But there is some evidence that TFG may be able to sit in second and show the greater guts at the end, provided both don't over-exert.

    40-1 seems too big. TFG has been unfancied before and come good. Some improvement from last year may be enough. Roger Fell has had a couple of other biggish priced winners recently. Going back in fairly recent history, jockey seems capable of riding a race from the front to some effect.

    I don't know if the Hammond horse will throw a spanner in the works, go off like a rocket, and try to grind it out (2 mile bumper winner, and think they are lining it up for a summer York race)
    Last edited by chaumi; 26th May 2022 at 2:40 PM.

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  15. #650
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    Saturday, Haydock 2.20 - Kelly's Dino 25/1, 4pl - hasn't run for two years so the risks are obvious but he is very well handicapped on his best form. I'm trying to get into the trainer's head with this one. The stable is in incredible form so now might be the time to strike and I think sometimes first time up after an absence is the time to catch this type. The horse was on an upward curve five runs (but three years) ago and two seasons ago on his seasonal debut he was a close runner-up in a decent race at Deauville before being off for a while and disappointing on his reappearance. He's been off since then and has obviously had his problems so if they think they've got him back in some sort of form maybe now is the time to take advantage before the stable form wears off, assuming it will at some point. At the price and 5lbs lower than for that win five runs ago, it's a risk I'm happy to take with the extra place. Sky are offering the fifth place to 20/1.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 28th May 2022 at 7:48 AM.
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  17. #651
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saturday, Haydock 2.20 - Kelly's Dino 25/1, 4pl - hasn't run for two years so the risks are obvious but he is very well handicapped on his best form. I'm trying to get into the trainer's head with this one. The stable is in incredible form so now might be the time to strike and I think sometimes first time up after an absence is the time to catch this type. The horse was on an upward curve five runs (but three years) ago and two seasons ago on his seasonal debut he was a close runner-up in a decent race at Deauville before being off for a while and disappointing on his reappearance. He's been off since then and has obviously had his problems so if they think they've got him back in some sort of form maybe now is the time to take advantage before the stable form wears off, assuming it will at some point. At the price and 5lbs lower than for that win five runs ago, it's a risk I'm happy to take with the extra place. Sky are offering the fifth place to 20/1.
    Out to 40s in a place now but I'm not especially worried; I have the BOG anyway. Sky are now going 33/1 with the five places so I've taken that too.
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  18. #652
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    Same race -I've now added Reshoun at 50/1 (4pl) and 40/1 (5pl). I have it top rated on last season's form and, after two runs, it might be ready to hit form. It's a course winner and, for me, nobody rides Haydock better than Kingscote.
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  19. #653
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Same race -I've now added Reshoun at 50/1 (4pl) and 40/1 (5pl). I have it top rated on last season's form and, after two runs, it might be ready to hit form. It's a course winner and, for me, nobody rides Haydock better than Kingscote.
    Ran on for fifth but not sure if I'll get paid with the late NR.
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  20. #654
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    Is it madness taking on two last time out Irish winners in a 2 mile Kelso novice?

    Perhaps.

    But My Macho Man 2.12 Kelso might show there is a way to do it.

    The bigger prices have gone, unfortunately. 33 with WH this morning and 40 BF sportsbook. It was hard to tell at that point which way it was going, but the current 20s B365 is still just about in range of being acceptable (28 on the exchange as I type). I can't call which way it will go from here and probably depends heavily on the confidence behind either of the top two.

    Barnes targets this race. Well, I say targets. Maybe it's just a good, local option and well placed in the calendar for his (hopefully) better novices, the types that may be up to running in summer 2m Class 3 handicaps.

    MMM has had a fair few races, but still only 5. Could be he's yet to peak. Ran 3rd only 2 lengths off the winner in roughly the corresponding race to this last year.
    2 miles on good should be optimal.
    Stable had a nice C3 chase winner yesterday
    Barnes delivered the 66-1 winner of the corresponding race in 2018

    Nathan Moscrop riding is a surprise. Not normally a stable jockey. But he has been riding a number of winners recently.

    I'd wait and see if 33 or higher is available in the lead-up, and then hope he can get round with zero mistakes. If he can, there are bits of form that suggest he could beat the top two.
    Last edited by chaumi; 29th May 2022 at 12:17 PM.

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    Went the expected way, though MMM ran OK and even looked like he might force more of a race of it for a few of seconds 2 out to the last. Slight mistake and bunny hop at the last possibly cost him second, but it looked like the winner had a lot more anyway.

  22. #656
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    Epsom 3.45 - Spirit Dancer 20/1, 5 places - Top rated on my figures and with the overall profile of an improver so I can't let it go unbacked. Won't be my only bet in the race but it will be my main one.
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  24. #657
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    Epsom 2.35 - Arthur's Realm 33/1, 5places - sits joint bottom of my ratings table but I reckon if you strip out his last run he'd be half this price. On his previous run he'd be a decent improver who won with plenty to spare. I'm not so sure about the switch back to turf but he was improving anyway on this surface before that. He might be a bit of a nutter as well but there's plenty of compensation in the price, although his is weak in the betting. Still, nothing ventured etc. He's 40s to 4 places with Betfred. I've split my stake across the two terms.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 3rd June 2022 at 11:14 AM.
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  26. #658
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Epsom 3.45 - Spirit Dancer 20/1, 5 places - Top rated on my figures and with the overall profile of an improver so I can't let it go unbacked. Won't be my only bet in the race but it will be my main one.
    Looked promising for a wee while but it may well have needed this seasonal debut given how its progress flattened out.

    I'm kicking myself black and blue for not backing Royal Champion. One of the things I do in these targeted handicaps is check trainers' records in them. I forgot to do it - for any race so far today - and it turns out Varian has won it three times from just four runners in the last ten years. Normally that would have had me lumping on.

    A very spikey reminder not to neglect this approach for the rest of the meeting and ahead of Ascot.
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  27. #659
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Looked promising for a wee while but it may well have needed this seasonal debut given how its progress flattened out.
    Yep, a furlong and a half out or so out I thought he was coming to do the business and the place side of it definitely looked good. The ground worried me, I suspect it wasn't soft enough. But Fahey would have pulled out if the ground had been too wrong. Comment before the race suggested they had Spirit straight, which makes me think maybe they got there and figured it was just on the side of OK and go for it.

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    Now for a wild one...

    Derby - Hoo Ya Mal 200/1, 4 places - this is in the same ball-park price as the once-raced no-hoper El Habeeb (the stable are probably happy to land the odds on finishing last) but, on my figures, it should be in the same ball-park price range as Sonny Liston (66s tops, 33s in a place) or even West Wind Blows (33s generally). And I reckon it might improve a fair bit for stepping up to the Derby trip. I'll settle for a fourth-place return.
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