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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #41
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    William Henry and Bold Plan both blue pretty much across the board this evening. I might end up with the opporchancity of laying the win portions to no loss.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  3. #43
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    How's about a 233/1 shot for this weekend?

    It just occurred to me earlier today to double-check where Adam Wedge was riding tomorrow for Evan Williams. It turns out he's at Warwick, presumably for No Rematch in the Classic rather than Bold Plan (25s still available) in the Lanzarote at Kempton. Given the form the trainer and jockey have been in this season in the big Saturday handicaps, I managed to snaffle some 12/1 about Rematched as back-up to the Enki horse. Following a wee lie-down and a coffee, it occurred to me to check the Williams double. By this point No Rematch was down to 8/1 tops so the double odds are somewhat reduced but 233/1 might not be bad if the money continues to come for them.

    Could this be the longest-priced 'winner' for the thread and its previous incarnations?

    Just a wee hopeful punt anyway.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th January 2022 at 2:20 PM. Reason: name correction
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Is a drifter a good or bad thing.earlier in the week I backed HEAD TO THE STARS for the Warwick classic at 10/1 it has drifted to 33/1 now so I cashed out and reinvested.

    In the Lanzarote I've done CALL ME LORD 28/1 topweight but only off 144.

    985/1 double...I can dream.
    Last edited by Outsider; 14th January 2022 at 4:52 PM.

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    MONTE CHRISTO 240k 33/1 I feel this is over priced and overlooked.
    3rd choice jockey could be a concern.C.Brace.
    Although its 56 grand to the winner I still think owners like the Munirs would rather have a Cheltenham winner so this and Call Me Lord could possibly running with that in mind.
    On a line through Ecco,monte has to find about 4L with Marie's Rock.
    Green book looks to have a great chance but is only a 5 yr old and they dont have a great record.
    So many with chances but at a lot shorter odds.

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  9. #46
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    MONTE CHRISTO 240k 33/1 I feel this is over priced and overlooked.
    3rd choice jockey could be a concern.C.Brace.
    Although its 56 grand to the winner I still think owners like the Munirs would rather have a Cheltenham winner so this and Call Me Lord could possibly running with that in mind.
    Yes, Outsider, it's right there at the top of my ratings but the jockey bookings are putting me off. I thought about backing it for the Coral Cup but only two bookies had it priced up earlier, both at 33/1.

    I reckoned if it won tomorrow it would be unlikely to win the CC with a hike but if it doesn't win it might go out to 50s or 66s and I would be interested at that price.

    I've no doubt it's got a bit of class.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  11. #47
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    MC is blue across the board this morning, Outsider. Somebody is hammering it

    Warwick 1.50 - Any News 20/1 (Bet365) - shame there's only two places but fortune favours and all that. I'm not sure the favourite should be as short as he is and since AN is second-top on my figures he probably shouldn't be as long as he is. I can't say I fancy him strongly but I do think his price is more than double what it should be therefore worth an interest.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  12. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    MC is blue across the board this morning, Outsider. Somebody is hammering it
    Itís not my money although I did have a small interest at 33s last night.
    This one has often looked like running well only to fade at the business end but itís a decent enough price. Just 5 places as the books offering more were only 20/1

  13. #49
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    Nobodys been hammering the horse There's been peanuts forhim in comparison to others like his stable companion and you can still have 33/1 on Betfair.

    The reason a few horses have gone blue is because a lot of the bookies are playng on 6 even 7 places so they cut the price to compensate

    .
    Last edited by Tanlic; 15th January 2022 at 12:24 PM.
    Formely Fist of Fury

  14. #50
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Warwick 1.50 - Any News 20/1 (Bet365) - shame there's only two places but fortune favours and all that. I'm not sure the favourite should be as short as he is and since AN is second-top on my figures he probably shouldn't be as long as he is. I can't say I fancy him strongly but I do think his price is more than double what it should be therefore worth an interest.
    Ridden to pick up any scraps going but the front two didn't stop. Might have been a wee bit closer with a less negative ride but education looked the priority there.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    [Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.]

    Took 5/1 on Thursday for today's race, biggest bet of the weekend so a good result all round. The price for the Albert Bartlett has halved with Bet365 and shortened with a few others but PP/Betfair are still going 33/1 so I've gone in again. I reckon they'll adjust that shortly.

    They've adjusted it now. !6/1.

    Job pretty much done.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 15th January 2022 at 3:53 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  17. #52
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    William Henry was very disappointing. I was encouraged when it raced prominently early but its goose was cooked after about half a mile.

    Bold Plan got a very disappointingly negative ride, anchored early and then hampered by the faller. It was never going to be competitive after that.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    [Albert Bartlett - Stag Horn 33/1 - I'm half anticipating this one to win the Warwick Ballymore trial race on Saturday which will probably see his price for the Albert Bartlett halve, at which point I can lay off the win portion to no risk or cash out for a small profit. His rating went up to 108 on the Flat this summer (not far behind Stradivarius in the Sagaro), which would put him around 150 for hurdling, easily enough to be placed in the festival race.]

    Took 5/1 on Thursday for today's race, biggest bet of the weekend so a good result all round. The price for the Albert Bartlett has halved with Bet365 and shortened with a few others but PP/Betfair are still going 33/1 so I've gone in again. I reckon they'll adjust that shortly.

    They've adjusted it now. !6/1.

    Job pretty much done.
    I'm not sure his running style would see him last home in the AB. Would guess he'd go for the Ballymore.
    Last edited by Slim; 15th January 2022 at 4:02 PM.

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  20. #54
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, Slim. I plan to lay off to no loss anyway.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  21. #55
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    Only a guess. I left him go unbacked today and seriously annoyed with myself. He was never getting beat.

  22. #56
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    I'm not sure his running style would see him last home in the AB. Would guess he'd go for the Ballymore.
    With all respect Slim that looks highly unlikley

    Archie Watson did already say he would be aimed at The Albert Bartlett and he looked like he could have gone round again today

    laying him off at the moment is for the AB is not an option at the moment.
    There is 3 pounds to lay at 34 and up until 2 minutes ago there was only 3 quid at 2.52 to back him but someone is now offering 18 for 3 quid.

    As far as the Ballymore goes he's 31/1 on the machine and was only added today and there has been zero takers
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
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    I had Stag Hill my biggest bet of the weekend at 5/1 on Thursday.....I just forgot to mention it until after the race
    Formely Fist of Fury

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    William Henry was very disappointing. I was encouraged when it raced prominently early but its goose was cooked after about half a mile.

    Bold Plan got a very disappointingly negative ride, anchored early and then hampered by the faller. It was never going to be competitive after that.
    Well done with Stag Horn D.but I disagree over Bold plan.i tried backing it in running starting at 25s but every time I pressed back it shortened and when it reached 11/1 thankfully I gave up.but I thought it was travelling well.

  25. #59
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Well done with Stag Horn D.but I disagree over Bold plan.i tried backing it in running starting at 25s but every time I pressed back it shortened and when it reached 11/1 thankfully I gave up.but I thought it was travelling well.
    I don't think it was a non-trier, Outsider. I just thought it was a very negative ride compounded by being hampered. It did start to look dangerous, seemingly going well, about four out but the effort of getting on to the coat tails of the peloton did for it. At least it showed some promise.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don't think it was a non-trier, Outsider. I just thought it was a very negative ride compounded by being hampered. It did start to look dangerous, seemingly going well, about four out but the effort of getting on to the coat tails of the peloton did for it. At least it showed some promise.
    I read Evan William's said that he had the race in mind for a while so it's worth keeping an eye on.
    Last edited by Outsider; 15th January 2022 at 7:43 PM. Reason: Edited cos I was talking through my a&#e

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