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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #21
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Outstanding work. Gagged up.

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    Well done Prime Venture backers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.

    The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (Ģ100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.
    Great tipping!!!

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  7. #24
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.

    The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (Ģ100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.
    Like the trainspotter whose ideal death was to be run over by a steam locomotive, I'm chuffed to bits. Brilliantly cool ride by Wedge.

    Gets the thread in profit early too.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    A few happy chappies on here today.
    Prime venture a very popular winner.and for me a much needed winner.
    The guy who does the write up under the races on bet 365 put it up and my mate on another forum did as well.
    Made my day/week.

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  11. #26
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Nice one, desert

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    Kicking myself for missing Le Ligerien earlier in the week at a big price (I backed him when he won Pointing back in November and was feeling smug) so did I go in on ex pointer Jepeck who I know loves the ground? Did I hell.....
    I did redeem myself with Hydroplane ew just now and then realised I had forgotten to use my Bet365 free bet.....and back him on Betfair instead. Better than nothing I guess.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.
    Thanks for that. I needed it as I usually back Jepeck but didn’t bother today!
    The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (Ģ100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.

  15. #29
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    I have found one worth a go at tomorrow. My forms hit and miss so take it or leave it..most firms offering 4 places for the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post.

    Fairyhouse 2.20 Batcio (20/1) is the oldest horse to go to post at 10 years of age but he hasn't been overraced in his career so far and truth be told his best form came with his last two chase wins last summer. He beat The West's Awake about 3 lengths and that horse was third behind a couple of Batcios rivals tomorrow in Poseidon and Grange Walk.

    That win was the second time Batcio scored with a light weight and he gets these circumstances again tomorrow although he is now in a higher grade of race. Given how he won that day when beating The West Awake he did it comfortably and I feel he is an excellent each way price here tomorrow. He can be in the shake up.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th January 2022 at 8:30 PM.

  16. #30
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I can see where you're coming from with that selection, Marb. When I was going through the form it was on my mind that I might end up backing it but it's a tricky race.

    The bookies aren't giving anything away with the shorter shots so I'm looking beyond them. My main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the saver does - Soviet Pimpernel 20/1. I think his price is down to his record of dodgy jumping but it looks like they're maybe giving it one last chance chasing before sending him back over hurdles, over which he would be very well handicapped. The same owner's Capuccimix is higher up my ratings on his chase form but SP wears the first colours with Blackmore booked. Looks like the last chance saloon and I'm prepared to pop in for a drink.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th January 2022 at 10:25 AM. Reason: Brain fart
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  17. #31
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Well done, DO.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  19. #32
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I can see where you're coming from with that selection, Marb. When I was going through the form it was on my mind that I might end up backing it but it's a tricky race.

    The bookies aren't giving anything away with the shorter shots so I'm looking beyond them. My main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the saver does - Soviet Pimpernel 20/1. I think his price is down to his record of dodgy jumping but it looks like they're maybe giving it one last chance chasing before sending him back over hurdles, over which he would be very well handicapped. The same owner's Capuccimix is higher up my ratings on his chase form but SP wears the first colours with Blackmore booked. Looks like the last chance saloon and I'm prepared to pop in for a drink.
    Has someone of influence put this up? It's now 8/1 tops! I didn't see that coming.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  20. #33
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just spent a while putting up Espaņito Bello in the Fairyhouse 1.50 but the page kept freezing and not saving. Long story short, I took 50/1 to 4 places and 33/1 (3pl) w/out the hotpot.

    Edit - fav is out. That explains what I was addressing my original post.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th January 2022 at 1:46 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  21. #34
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Just spent a while putting up Espaņito Bello in the Fairyhouse 1.50 but the page kept freezing and not saving. Long story short, I took 50/1 to 4 places and 33/1 (3pl) w/out the hotpot.

    Edit - fav is out. That explains what I was addressing my original post.
    Fifth. Might have got fourth if the jockey hadn't allowed him to be tightened up turning for home but it looked to me like it was trying and that's all I'll ever ask for.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  22. #35
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I have found one worth a go at tomorrow. My forms hit and miss so take it or leave it..most firms offering 4 places for the 12 runners currently scheduled to go to post.

    Fairyhouse 2.20 Batcio (20/1) is the oldest horse to go to post at 10 years of age but he hasn't been overraced in his career so far and truth be told his best form came with his last two chase wins last summer. He beat The West's Awake about 3 lengths and that horse was third behind a couple of Batcios rivals tomorrow in Poseidon and Grange Walk.
    Ran well, Marb. Hope you got the fourth place.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Ran well, Marb. Hope you got the fourth place.
    Yes I did indeed, DO. Cheers.

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  26. #37
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Kempton Saturday 2.50 (Lanzarote) - William Henry 33/1 - I've been very impressed with what Sam Thomas has been doing this season and how his horses have been running. He also seems to have a knack of coaxing older horses back to something not far off their better old form so I've gone in early with this one as he's looks extremely well handicapped.

    The horse is an old pal, having won the Coral Cup for me some years back so maybe there's an element of sentiment in backing him but he was rated 156 when he won his final race for Nicky Henderson (Feb 2020) and jumped badly right when still running pretty well in the G1 at Aintree behind Thyme Hill. Two runs right down the park this season have seen his mark plummet to 139. He won this race in 2018 off 145.

    I've no idea if he's even an intended runner but I like the horse, the trainer and the price
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  28. #38
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Kempton Saturday 2.50 (Lanzarote) - William Henry 33/1 - I've been very impressed with what Sam Thomas has been doing this season and how his horses have been running. He also seems to have a knack of coaxing older horses back to something not far off their better old form so I've gone in early with this one as he's looks extremely well handicapped.

    The horse is an old pal, having won the Coral Cup for me some years back so maybe there's an element of sentiment in backing him but he was rated 156 when he won his final race for Nicky Henderson (Feb 2020) and jumped badly right when still running pretty well in the G1 at Aintree behind Thyme Hill. Two runs right down the park this season have seen his mark plummet to 139. He won this race in 2018 off 145.

    I've no idea if he's even an intended runner but I like the horse, the trainer and the price
    Declared, so that's the first obstacle taken. Jack Tudor will take another 3lbs off. Not unhappy about that.

    I've gone in again at 33/1 to 7 places.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th January 2022 at 1:52 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  30. #39
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've added Bold Plan at 40/1 (7pl) - Evan Williams pulled a rabbit out of the hat for me last week with Prime Venture - good going, the best I can do is pull a hair out of my erse - and he's always talked this one up. Another long-term plot? A Bold Plan, even?

    I might even try the forecast with William Henry!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th January 2022 at 2:03 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Good luck DO. I will be having two bets I think. One each way on Fosters Island who is bang in form and can be placed. Micky Hammond is the right type of trainer to bring a horse up in a grade like this and run well. He did it when Cornerstone Lad stepped up in grade albeit in different circumstances when he beat Buveir Dair in the Fighting Fifth.

    On My Command is the other bottom weight and she is good form although about a third of the price of Fostersisland.

    So an each way on Fosters and a win only bet on On My Command is what I am planning.
    Last edited by Marb; 13th January 2022 at 2:13 PM.

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