Page 11 of 52 FirstFirst ... 67891011121314151621 ... LastLast
Results 201 to 220 of 1040

Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #201
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    1,797
    Thanks
    372
    Thanked 296 Times in 225 Posts
    Most horses have a wind issue when they run out of stamina. The horse went hell to leather from the off at Newbury and was pulling further clear at the end. If there was an issue with the breathing, then it would surely have come to light then!

    I was very keen on his chances last year, but to me; the way he stopped, had all the hallmarks of a tired horse...

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Maxbet For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (6th March 2022)

  3. #202
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    I've done another one for the county hurdle.
    HACKER DES PLACES 33/1 P.Nicholls.
    Its form isnt too bad.
    6th as a 4yr old giving weight to older horses.
    Then 4th behind Metier and Gowel road.
    Dropped 3lb he won a minor race and got put up to a pound above its metier form.
    Entered in the Imperial cup.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    moehat (7th March 2022)

  5. #203
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    MAGICINTHEMAKING 800k 20/1 best trip.and Holly back on it.off 55.its last win was a long time ago but was off 63 c/d

  6. #204
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    I know its form is not good and if he wins the Irish will be up in arms but JANIKA 25/1 kim Muir must be the best hcapped horse in the country.4 races ado he was on 158 and now runs off 143.
    Whether or not it runs is another matter but nrnb.
    Interesting to see Sam Waley-Cohen is down to ride MISTER COFFEY if it gets in.

  7. #205
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    MAGICINTHEMAKING 800k 20/1 best trip.and Holly back on it.off 55.its last win was a long time ago but was off 63 c/d
    Well that was nice wasnt it.

  8. #206
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    703
    Thanks
    330
    Thanked 183 Times in 147 Posts
    Great shout mate, well played!

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to Beef or Salmon For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (9th March 2022)

  10. #207
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    1,993
    Thanks
    629
    Thanked 712 Times in 557 Posts
    Blog Entries
    58
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Well that was nice wasnt it.
    That’s cheered you up, then . Nice one.

  11. The Following User Says Thank You to barjon For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (9th March 2022)

  12. #208
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    20,369
    Thanks
    2,235
    Thanked 2,808 Times in 2,192 Posts
    I ignored it because it was a flat AW race but am doubly pleased for both Outsider (who's a fantastic supporter of the thread) and the thread itself.

    Smashing selection and smashing result.

    Well done, Outsider


    One of my own going forward into Cheltenham:

    Boodles - Tanganyika 50/1, 5pl, NRNB - one run over here for V Williams, finishing an exaggeratedly poor third but enough to keep its mark possibly exaggeratedly low. Its French mark suggests it should be around the mid 130s (121 here) and maybe that's what the handicapper had in mind before its moderate stable debut. The NRNB concession means no harm done if it doesn't make the cut (needs 5 to come out, which will almost certainly happen) or if they decide it isn't good enough and pull it instead (reminds me of a lassie I once knew...)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 9th March 2022 at 11:25 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (9th March 2022)

  14. #209
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    I've just got to do UP FOR PAROL 20/1 for the imperial cup.probably needs to win to get in the county.
    Bet 365 6 places.

  15. #210
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    20,369
    Thanks
    2,235
    Thanked 2,808 Times in 2,192 Posts
    Festival Bumper - Houlanbatordechais 33/1 - this is a complete and utter hunch but I'm reminded of the time I put up Concertista on the longshot thread a couple of years ago when she made her debut in the mares' novices' hurdle at something crazy like 66/1 and she was nutted on the line by a stablemate also at a big price. I just wonder why they've kept this one in the race at this stage without ever seeing a racecourse before and they know where they stand with the likes of Facile Vega in the field. If it goes out again I might go in again, being the proverbial glutton for punishment.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  16. #211
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    20,369
    Thanks
    2,235
    Thanked 2,808 Times in 2,192 Posts
    Imperial Cup - Transatlantic 33/1, 6 places - not beaten far in a G1 in France and now with Gary Moore who targets this track successfully. A mark of 130 might be on the lenient side based on his French mark (which doesn't translate quite as leniently as the Boodles favourite but the price is huge by comparison!)
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (10th March 2022)

  18. #212
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I've just got to do UP FOR PAROL 20/1 for the imperial cup.probably needs to win to get in the county.
    Bet 365 6 places.
    Now out to 25s 7p with a.hill.
    And I've took 33s 3places bet 365.

  19. #213
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    20,369
    Thanks
    2,235
    Thanked 2,808 Times in 2,192 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Imperial Cup - Transatlantic 33/1, 6 places - not beaten far in a G1 in France and now with Gary Moore who targets this track successfully. A mark of 130 might be on the lenient side based on his French mark (which doesn't translate quite as leniently as the Boodles favourite but the price is huge by comparison!)
    My other longshot for this race is Hydroplane 40/1, 7pl - impressed me here (heavy ground) the time before last and only 1lb higher now (2lbs lower if you take the jockey's allowance into account). Disappointed next time at Cheltenham (good) but was reportedly struck into so maybe that run is worth stripping out and he could effectively be a winner without a penalty. Either way, on my figures his price is far too big.

    I don't have a 'main' bet for the race. I've backed another that doesn't qualify for the thread and am swithering about another about which I've missed the double-digit prices so I might just use that one to cover the rest. Four against the field in a race of this nature would be pretty normal for me. They dutch at about 7/2 so considering they're my four top-rated on career form I'd be hopeful of a good run for my money but wouldn't be surprised if they finished second, third, fourth and fifth
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  20. #214
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    2,440
    Thanks
    614
    Thanked 121 Times in 105 Posts
    I’ve backed Lebowski at 22/1, partly because I saw a programme about the Coen Brothers on tv the other day and also because Scudamore wrong footed me the other day winning a race when all eyes were on the owners other horse trained by someone else and the Scudamore horse romped home. Which is as good a reason as any these days!

  21. The Following User Says Thank You to moehat For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (12th March 2022)

  22. #215
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,566
    Thanks
    556
    Thanked 657 Times in 459 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Great way to get the Willie Mullins' novices on side cheaply.

    Dysart Dynamo (Supreme)
    Sir Gerhard (Ballymore)

    26/1 the double will do me. 24/1 ok too.
    Looking like being a 5/1 shot.

  23. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (12th March 2022)

  24. #216
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    20,369
    Thanks
    2,235
    Thanked 2,808 Times in 2,192 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Looking like being a 5/1 shot.
    And that might look like value at 1.40 on Wednesday...

    I can't believe I took the each-way shiter's option
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 12th March 2022 at 5:39 PM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  25. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Slim (12th March 2022)

  26. #217
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    3,383
    Thanks
    3,033
    Thanked 781 Times in 697 Posts
    Blog Entries
    460
    DOCTOR DUFFY ultima 40/1 boosted to 45s with betfair.

    I know his jumping could be a problem but I thought it was a bit unlucky to fall last time.he had made good ground on the inside that day over 3m 4f in the race won by Death duty with flouer 3rd. They are 7/1 and 10/1 so 40s must be a bit of value.
    It's been running over hurdles all season and stumbled and finished 8th in a pertemps qualifier so I think that was the aim and this is plan B.
    Only Carrie's 10-2 with his claim.

  27. #218
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    6,249
    Thanks
    1,042
    Thanked 925 Times in 828 Posts
    Blog Entries
    106
    I had to go back to the drawing board after School Boy Hours wasn't declared earlier. I think the Ultima is a very open race. I mentioned Tea Clipper on this forum after he won his novice chase this season.

    This came after an excellent season last season when he placed in a couple of high grade handicap hurdles, such as the Coral Cup at this meeting last season.

    When you look at his overall profile it is clear he was game as a pebble over hurdles as he never really ran a bad race, winning his fair share of races along the way. So given all this, I think he needs forgiving for a couple of below par novice chase runs at the end of last season. I figure something was definately amiss.

    Fast forward the past three months where he hasn't been seen on a track, he is surely an interesting runner in the Ultima Chase, after a wind operation and with his tongue tied.

    He could be very well handicapped over fences if you take into account his form over hurdles. It's not often I would forgive a horse his last run, but it was too bad to be true and perhaps the wind operation has helped him. He is my main selection in the big handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.
    Last edited by Marb; 13th March 2022 at 8:24 PM.

  28. The Following User Says Thank You to Marb For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (13th March 2022)

  29. #219
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    2,440
    Thanks
    234
    Thanked 334 Times in 276 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    I had to go back to the drawing board after School Boy Hours wasn't declared earlier. I think the Ultima is a very open race. I mentioned Tea Clipper on this forum after he won his novice chase this season.

    This came after an excellent season last season when he placed in a couple of high grade handicap hurdles, such as the Coral Cup at this meeting last season.

    When you look at his overall profile it is clear he was game as a pebble over hurdles as he never really ran a bad race, winning his fair share of races along the way. So given all this, I think he needs forgiving for a couple of below par novice chase runs at the end of last season. I figure something was definately amiss.

    Fast forward the past three months where he hasn't been seen on a track, he is surely an interesting runner in the Ultima Chase, after a wind operation and with his tongue tied.

    He could be very well handicapped over fences if you take into account his form over hurdles. It's not often I would forgive a horse his last run, but it was too bad to be true and perhaps the wind operation has helped him. He is my main selection in the big handicap chase on day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival.
    Shortening up massively.

  30. #220
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    6,249
    Thanks
    1,042
    Thanked 925 Times in 828 Posts
    Blog Entries
    106
    Yes I feel he will run a big race.

    Tom Lacey knows how to win a big handicap. He did it with Glory and Fortune last month.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •