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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The 2022 Longshot Thread

    I have no idea if the 2021 thread ended up showing a profit but it was a lot of fun along the way and found a fair old number of winners and loads of placed runners.

    Time to start a new one for this calendar year.

    At the moment I don't have one for Saturday but I'm going to start this thread with a truly mental one, one which probably won't even run, but it's one I like and the odds are genuinely long.

    2022 Champion Hurdle - Tommy's Oscar 100/1 - only two firms are pricing him up - none were last night - but if they're even thinking about the Champion Hurdle for him then they could pick tomorrow's handicap at Musselburgh easily. Alternatively, they could save him for the Betfair Hurdle as he could have the winning of that too, if my figure for him is accurate. (Big if, on all counts.)

    Either way, I think this fella is a lot better than his current 150 mark. I accept he'll need to be 20lbs better than that to beat Honeysuckle but 15lbs would put him in the mix with the best of the others. Even 15lbs is a big ask but I reckon he's already 10lbs better so maybe he only has another 5lbs to find.

    He only got in front late last time but it was a slow-slow-fast race in much softer ground than the time before at Haydock when they went fast on decent ground and he hacked up. The later race might also have come a fraction soon but the Haydock race is the one for which I have a very big mark for him. It was a deep field, all trying, and they went fast but he picked them up effortlessly from not far off the pace and sauntered clear.

    If he wins tomorrow and they even mention the Champion Hurdle, the bookies will introduce or cut him to 50s, less if he's very impressive.

    And all this is before I've even started my Hogmaneigh bevvy.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 31st December 2021 at 6:25 PM.
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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    And all this is before I've even started my Hogmaneigh bevvy.
    Are you sure about this bit, DO??

    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I don't usually start until about 10pm on NYE. Need to pace myself for the wow finish.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Lovely post and a great start to 2022!

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    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
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    Well, Iíve got one that may be of interest tomorrow Gallyhill 1:25 Cheltenham, 25/1 atm.

    He cost £450k and was quite highly tried over hurdles last term culminating in the Grade1 Doom Bar at Aintree. He was on the heels of the leaders - Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame - at the home turn, but didnít see it out and was pulled up. Well backed for chase debut at Exeter he was again bang there with 4 to go having jumped pretty well except throwing himself out of any rhythm at the previous fence. Again he faded quickly before he fell 2 out.

    The fading is obviously worrisome, but he seems well thought of. If heís going to show anything it maybe tomorrow.
    Last edited by barjon; 31st December 2021 at 8:05 PM.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, I did have a couple of looks at Gallyhill on Thursday because of connections and what they paid for him. definitely one to be wary of if you're backing anything else.

    Meantime, I've found a longshot for today:

    Cheltenham 2.00 - High Up In The Air 50/1, 6 places - this one figures at the bottom area of my ratings table so his price might be right but he had a string ones next to his name last season before taking on Farinet at the Imperial Cup meeting. That one was only 13/2 for the Massey-Ferguson from an 8lbs higher mark. HUITA was due to run in November but was pulled on account of the faster ground so has probably been fit for some time, or that race might have been to put him right for the M-F, assuming he was entered. Either way, he's a second-season novice, albeit older than average for one, but he was on a curve last season and if he can find again this season he could run well. He might just be ridden to pick up the scraps - not a good ploy here in a race of this nature - but he had the pace as a hurdler to make all in good times over hurdles so I'm hoping he races prominently and then I'm happy to see how he gets on at a big price to small money.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I have no idea if the 2021 thread ended up showing a profit but it was a lot of fun along the way and found a fair old number of winners and loads of placed runners.

    Time to start a new one for this calendar year.

    At the moment I don't have one for Saturday but I'm going to start this thread with a truly mental one, one which probably won't even run, but it's one I like and the odds are genuinely long.

    2022 Champion Hurdle - Tommy's Oscar 100/1 - only two firms are pricing him up - none were last night - but if they're even thinking about the Champion Hurdle for him then they could pick tomorrow's handicap at Musselburgh easily. Alternatively, they could save him for the Betfair Hurdle as he could have the winning of that too, if my figure for him is accurate. (Big if, on all counts.)

    Either way, I think this fella is a lot better than his current 150 mark. I accept he'll need to be 20lbs better than that to beat Honeysuckle but 15lbs would put him in the mix with the best of the others. Even 15lbs is a big ask but I reckon he's already 10lbs better so maybe he only has another 5lbs to find.

    He only got in front late last time but it was a slow-slow-fast race in much softer ground than the time before at Haydock when they went fast on decent ground and he hacked up. The later race might also have come a fraction soon but the Haydock race is the one for which I have a very big mark for him. It was a deep field, all trying, and they went fast but he picked them up effortlessly from not far off the pace and sauntered clear.

    If he wins tomorrow and they even mention the Champion Hurdle, the bookies will introduce or cut him to 50s, less if he's very impressive.

    And all this is before I've even started my Hogmaneigh bevvy.
    Won as easily as I thought it would. Will go up at least 7lbs for that so the dream is still on, a bit like starting a frame of snooker red, black, red...
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Some bookmakers have introduced him at 33/1, the two in question above have cut him to 50/1 and 66/1
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    And now Tommy's Oscar and the Champion Hurdle are being mentioned in the same sentence (and it looks like Paul Kealy respects him):

    Haydock next for emerging Champion Hurdle dark horse Tommy's Oscar | Horse Racing News | Racing Post
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd January 2022 at 7:30 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    [Tommy's Oscar] Won as easily as I thought it would. Will go up at least 7lbs for that so the dream is still on, a bit like starting a frame of snooker red, black, red...
    New OR 156.

    Slightly surprised that he's only gone up 6lbs. That strikes me as very lenient but it puts him in front of the likes of Buzz and Adagio. Then again, I've noticed RPRs (in particular) and ORs tend to be a wee bit conservative with the smaller northern tracks.

    We'll see. He was already 160+ with me and looked a few pounds better than that on Saturday. Mention of the Haydock Trial race might be appropriate. I'd put him, at the moment, on a par with The New One at his best. Probably not good enough to win but good enough to run well.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 4th January 2022 at 9:17 AM.
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    Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.

    The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (£100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 6th January 2022 at 10:44 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Saturday, Sandown 3.00 - Prime Venture 20/1, 4 places - if you have an account with Betvictor you might get 22/1 but I can't get on with them, or you can get 22/1 to 3 places with Ladbrokes.

    The way Evan Williams has been mopping up some of the big Saturday handicaps this season I'm happy to have this one onside. Ground and trip will be absolutely fine for him although his form is predominantly on left-handed tracks. That's my main concern. Whether he's as good as he once was is the moot issue. If he is he should win, if not he probably can't, but the price holds plenty of juice if he is. Just four runs back, this time last year, he ran well for an awful long way in the Welsh National and ultimately wasn't beaten far by his stablemate Secret Reprieve off 9lbs higher than now. This is a huge prize (£100k pot) for old duffers and I wouldn't be surprised if he's been targeting it all season. That he bled last time is a slight worry but I'm prepared to chance him at the price.
    I have to agree D.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Prime Venture is blue almost across the board today. Guarantees nothing but does offer encouragement.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Iíve followed you in with Prime Venture but took 18/1 (5 places) with SkyBet.

    Still some 20s available with bet365 to 4 places

    Heís been a hard horse to weigh up in the past. I had him down as a dour stayer who needs desperate ground when he ran past beaten horses for 4th in the 2019 Welsh Nash but he didnít quite get home in the 2020 edition. Still the handicapper has given him a chance and it looks like he might get his ground with plenty of rain forecast at Sandown between now and tomorrow afternoon


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    I have had an each-way pop at the outer of the party in the Sandown Veterans chase - Psychedelic Rock (50/1 Powers).

    He has only had 13 chase starts (won 4 of them), and is very-lightly raced for an 11yo. His last winning mark was 132 and he runs off 128 tomorrow, and his trainer Ian Williams remains in fair form too. Soft ground is a bit of a worry (though has won on it before), but the trip should be no problem (3 of his wins at 3m). His strike-rate alone - in the context of those he goes up against - suggests he’s a fair bet at the price.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 7th January 2022 at 8:34 PM.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I did have a look at him GH. His top RPRs are on fast ground. That's what put me off.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    I have had an each-way pop at the outer of the party in the Sandown Veterans chase - Psychedelic Rock (50/1 Powers).

    His last winning mark was 132 and he runs off 128 tomorrow
    Ah, I did wonder what the “ABC Punter” tweet meant
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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    Bang-to-rights.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Although I've done Prime Venture I'm going to also do DANCING SHADOW 25/1.
    Hasnt won for 5 yrs though but hwsnt been running that bad and a line through wandering star and Pipes ( both around 7s) he shouldnt be 25s.
    At least it will be interesting for a while if he front runs like usual.
    I like these veteran chases.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Prime Venture is blue almost across the board today. Guarantees nothing but does offer encouragement.
    Keith Melrose put him up on the RP podcast which I occasionally listen to on Saturday mornings but which is recorded Friday morning


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