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Thread: The 2022 Longshot Thread

  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by chaumi View Post
    Essays are great. Fill your boots!
    No ******* Essays.

  2. #842
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    No ******* Essays.

  3. #843
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedishchef View Post
    Newmarket 1.25 Tabsheer 40/1 small e/way (13/1 e/way 1/4 odds 4 places on sportsbook as a stake saver) He may have been btn 10L's on his only run but I believe it was a classier race than the one the fav ran in. I believe he was just outclassed by Redemption time who split Walbank & Royal Scotsmen on his previous run. (How good is Noble Style?) Redemption Time was unlucky in running in the Norfolk Stakes as well. So no disgrace In my book the selection was btn 10L by him first time out. If the selection does run well I will be watching out for the 2nd and 3rd in his last race. I ran the videos of fav and selection's last race simultaneously from 3Furlongs out as one was 5f and the 6f. All 4 of the runners in the selections race finished well ahead. Not a perfect science I know as fav race was at Chester. However selection was carrying 5lb more and all the mares progeny have won races and breeding suggest an extra furlong will help. Trainer is 2 wins and 2 places from 11 2yo runners on turf. This is why I feel the odds are too big and represent value. Sorry about the essay.
    That was poor and trainers other 2yo won the the 1.10 at Nottingham. Had it e/way 14/1 and e/way double with this selection. Was hopeful when the first one went In. 2 non runners so it would have been win only.

  4. #844
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    One last pop at the Northumberland Plate: Red Verdon 40/1, 6 places BOG - a bit of a cliff horse for me now and I really did intend to let him go here but the yard is in better form now, there was a glimmer of promise in his run last week and the booking of Curtis tells me to give the horse this one last chance. I know I'm mob-handed in the race but I've managed to avoid the market leaders at the prices taken and the other bets have all shortened up so I'm happy to settle for a smaller profit in the race as opposed to sticking with one or two and ending up kicking myself for not playing more of the field when I thought the odds were wrong.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th June 2022 at 6:43 AM.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    WHO DARES WINS 33/1 7 places.

    10 yr old, won this in 2019 off 6 lb higher and a 3lb claimer.

    Older than 6 yr old make up almost half the field.

  7. #846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    WHO DARES WINS 33/1 7 places.
    I often back Saffies rides. Unfortunately I missed out on the double she had the other day. She’s going to win a big one one day.
    10 yr old, won this in 2019 off 6 lb higher and a 3lb claimer.

    Older than 6 yr old make up almost half the field.

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    Newcastle

    1.50 Kind Review is a serial course winner here at Newcastle. He has won here five times since 2020 and now dropped a couple of pounds after several poor runs on just his fourth start for new trainer Tim Easterby, after a decent break off the track, well perhaps he can run better than odds of 20/1 suggest.
    Last edited by Marb; 24th June 2022 at 8:49 PM.

  9. #848
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    Nwm 2.20 - Universal Order 11/4
    Nwm 3.15 - Sunray Major 15/8
    Nwc 2.25 - Glen Shiel 9/2

    Treble works out at just under 60/1.

    I'm on at a fair bit longer than that but those prices still strike me as better than fair.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  10. #849
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Interesting the effect Kevin Blake can have on the market.

    He mentions Glory Daze and it's immediately halved pretty much across the board.

    Anyroads, I've decided to go with my gut in the race and my faith in Bolger. I've taken 50/1 Boundless Ocean. No chance on form but Bolger just doesn't throw any old thing at the classics.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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  12. #850
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    One last pop at the Northumberland Plate: Red Verdon 40/1, 6 places BOG - a bit of a cliff horse for me now and I really did intend to let him go here but the yard is in better form now, there was a glimmer of promise in his run last week and the booking of Curtis tells me to give the horse this one last chance. I know I'm mob-handed in the race but I've managed to avoid the market leaders at the prices taken and the other bets have all shortened up so I'm happy to settle for a smaller profit in the race as opposed to sticking with one or two and ending up kicking myself for not playing more of the field when I thought the odds were wrong.
    Interesting that Ben Curtis rides.just had a winner for Hugo Palmer and doesnt ride either of Hugo's in the big one.
    And just like you I cant let it go at the price of 66s.

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    I lost money on the race with just the one place return despite having backed three of the first five.

    And the rest of the day was one to forget - a total Andrex and a really heavy crash after last Saturday.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    Curragh 3.10 - Big Gossey 20/1, 5 places - looks on the up to me but stakes just modest enough to recoup yesterday's losses.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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    I've done 3 in it but all look badly drawn.

    2 are big prices and drifting.

    Urban beat 25/1
    Dream today 66/1 probably needs 6f.

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    You won’t get it right too often, DO - that’s the nature of the calls. But it’s always a pleasure to read your reasoning, and I for one have made more from this thread than I’ve lost; so, thank you very much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Curragh 3.10 - Big Gossey 20/1, 5 places - looks on the up to me but stakes just modest enough to recoup yesterday's losses.
    Good run D.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I only ever ask that the horse is a trier, which clearly wasn't the case with the non-longhsots I backed yesterday, but BG was trying for its life and just ran into one. No complaints. and the place profit will nibble back a small amount of yesterday's losses.

    We move on.

    Probably next weekend before I look at the racing again.
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  22. #857
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Curragh 3.10 - Big Gossey 20/1, 5 places - looks on the up to me but stakes just modest enough to recoup yesterday's losses.
    And thank you again! 18/1 - not to be sniffed at.

  23. #858
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    Never stop looking for what's not there.

  24. #859
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    OLD NEWTON CUP

    LOVE IS GOLDEN 40/1 has been running over 10f mainly but it's better form is around this distance and 40s is worth the risk.
    Last edited by Outsider; Today at 2:42 PM.

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  26. #860
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    Love Is Golden?

    Actually there are quite a few names in there I don't recognise and it looks like a rating in the 80s might make the cut.

    For a 150k race, that's pretty disappointing (but great for anything that sneaks in off that kind of mark).

    Hopefully I'll get a look at the race later today. Couldn't have told you it was coming up!
    Never stop looking for what's not there.

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