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Thread: Cheltenham Handicaps

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    Cheltenham Handicaps

    Early, I know, but Ive usually got a shortlist as long as me **** for horses and potential handicap plots.


    Just the two so far, and I could be absolutely way off with both of them.

    Whiskey Sour - Martin Pipe
    Ciel De Neige - Grand Annual

    Theres a couple from Gordons yard for the Coral Cup, but the handicapper could be playing silly buggers this year I reckon

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    The Martin Pipe will be full of unexposed Grade 1 horses. Just look at what won it last year. Whisky Sour wouldn't have a hope for my money.

    It's far too early and we must consider that there are unknowns this year. The Irish won the handoicaps 7-2 in 2021 and there was a big media push that the handicapping system is not fair. I would not be confident that all things will be equal this year.

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    The MP is literally the spot racings next superstar

    Some roll of honour
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    The winner of the Martin Pipe this year started his previous race at the Dublin Festival at 100/1. That’s some level of “improvement”. Two runs after the MP, that same horse is 9/4 favourite for the RSA.
    Last edited by Len Madeiros; 29th December 2021 at 2:22 PM.

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    I'm not sure there's too much the handicappers can do about the handicapping.

    They can't just impose an extra few pounds because so many raiders won in 2021. It has to be more statistically justifiable than that.

    What the Irish winners (and placed horses) have going for them is the sheer number of horses with the big trainers. They can run a lot of their horses in the normal decent handicaps through the season knowing they have something at home that's better and that the handicapper doesn't know about. You end up with a handicap containing horses we've hardly heard of representing Mullins, Elliott, De Bromhead etc etc. but each trainer might be represented by two or three such dark ones in the same race so it kind of boils down to educated guesswork over the nuts and bolts of handicapping exposed form.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Len Madeiros (29th December 2021)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'm not sure there's too much the handicappers can do about the handicapping.

    They can't just impose an extra few pounds because so many raiders won in 2021. It has to be more statistically justifiable than that.

    What the Irish winners (and placed horses) have going for them is the sheer number of horses with the big trainers. They can run a lot of their horses in the normal decent handicaps through the season knowing they have something at home that's better and that the handicapper doesn't know about. You end up with a handicap containing horses we've hardly heard of representing Mullins, Elliott, De Bromhead etc etc. but each trainer might be represented by two or three such dark ones in the same race so it kind of boils down to educated guesswork over the nuts and bolts of handicapping exposed form.
    They make it up as they go along as it is so I wouldn't hold out for anything needing to be justifiable.

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    Pour Pavore will win the Pertemps.
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    Outsider (30th December 2021)

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    Britzka wasn't knocked about in the Grade two juvenile.

    Fred Winter looks obvious target.

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    Similar comments apply to Fiston Des Issards, who I thought was handled very considerately in Journey With Me’s maiden.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Hills have prices up for all Festival races now including the handicaps
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    Hills have priced all handicaps already.

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    20s Phoenix Way for the Ultima is interesting.

    He travelled well at Ascot as the race went on, when just done for toe against Annsam. He should come on for the run, maybe he will run again in a month or so.

    He could do even better on a softer surface me thinks. His best hurdles run was on soft anyways.
    Last edited by Marb; 30th December 2021 at 11:17 PM.

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    I think unless you have genuine inside information about which horses are going for which handicaps, trying to fathom them is a waste of time and energy.

    I'm happy to wait until the entries are out before thinking about them and even then I won't get too involved. The five-day decs are when I start getting stuck in.

    Mind you, sometimes you come across one that you realise is stupidly well handicapped and is unlikely to go for anything other than a specific handicap, in which case it ends up just a matter of whether it runs, in terms of being worth a punt. And then you might still get some unexposed Irish potential Grade 1 bandit getting in off 140...

    Caveat puntor.
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    Floueur in the Kim Muir.

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    Remastered qualified for the Pertemps Hurdle back at the beginning of November courtesy of a third place at Aintree and been sent chasing on two occasions since. Wouldn't surprise me to see him end up back in the Pertemps Final.

    Coconut Splash (Evan Williams) is currently well handicapped too, could be a candidate for the County Hurdle, there again might not even be targeting a Festival race.
    "The owls are not what they seem"

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    A good thread for forumites to list the plot horses in the coming weeks
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Twitter likes Langer Dan in the Martin Pipe. I also like this, too much of a wise guys horse and will be place laid on the day.

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    Didn't Langer Dan blow its mark at the end of last season?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    The best handicap bet right now is 20/1 Dallas Des Pictons for the Pertemps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double J View Post
    Whiskey Sour - Martin Pipe
    Ciel De Neige - Grand Annual
    I couldn't have Whiskey Sour but Ciel De Neige is the one handicap chase horse I've noticed too. I thought it noteworthy that he didn't get an entry in the Dan Moore.
    Last edited by chroniclandlord; 31st December 2021 at 11:40 PM.

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