Novice Hurdlers 21/22

[wilsonl]

4/5 Ballymore 9/4 Supreme

I’ve gotta move to Thailand if the books are betting to c. 85%

Assuming it’s void if he misses the meeting entirely

[HawkWing]

Calm yourself down Hawk it's all fun at the end of the day

Nah. I know fun when I see it.

[Slim]

If you had to lay a price for which race does DD go, how would you price it?

1/3 Supreme
5/2 Ballymore

[HawkWing]

I think that's more like it. Sir Gerhard more likely of the pair to go Ballymore.

[Beef or Salmon]

I’ve gotta move to Thailand if the books are betting to c. 85%

Assuming it’s void if he misses the meeting entirely

The Ballymore was a certainty according to himself yesterday, give it a week or two and he'll be a 20/1 shot the way he is drifting!

[Diamond Geezer]

Timeform ratings posted a few minutes ago

Dysart Dynamo 150P

Jonbon 149P

Constitution Hill 147P

Stage Star 145P

Hillcrest 143P

Mighty Potter 143P

[Tanlic]

Those are some very strange ratings that will look silly by April.

Dysart Dynamo 153P

Jonbon 159P

Constitution Hill 157P

Stage Star 145P

Hillcrest 143P

Mighty Potter 143P

Is more how I would see it at the moment.....tossing the form book in the bin

[Tanlic]

Only 1 horse from 10 opponents that are entered in Jonbon's race on Sauturday hasn't won at least one race

Most actually could run as there are very few options elsewhere

[wilsonl]

Part of me is excited at what could be a high quality Supreme field reminiscent of Al Ferof’s but then another part of me worries that with the recent trend, even if only 2 or 3 of the 4 current market leaders show up, it’ll frighten opposition off and we’ll have a 6 or 7 runner opening to the meeting.

But I suppose to be fair, even if it was a 4 runner race with the main 4 it’d still be highly interesting.

[HawkWing]

Part of me is excited at what could be a high quality Supreme field reminiscent of Al Ferof’s but then another part of me worries that with the recent trend, even if only 2 or 3 of the 4 current market leaders show up, it’ll frighten opposition off and we’ll have a 6 or 7 runner opening to the meeting.

But I suppose to be fair, even if it was a 4 runner race with the main 4 it’d still be highly interesting.

Last year it was the 7 runner race without the superstar clash.

[Tanlic]

It's pretty much par for the course that 3 or 4 horses are single figures for the Supreme even in better years like Al Ferof's who himself went off at double figures

There were only Min and Altior their year closely followed by Buveur D'Air 10/1 but there was some buzz before the race with Min regarded as a banker bet by half of Ireland.

In the perfect world for us race lovers Constituation Hill Jonbon Sir gerhard and Dysart would all turn up but it's got to be highly unlikey.

The trainers want to win and someone is going to take what they think is the easier option

Then there's that stone some idiot failed to clean up and one of the entries stood on it 3 days before the race.

We should get upwards of 10 runners though with a couple of longshots like My Mate Mozzie turning up to addsome interest
and others that the owners want to run so they can tell their pals to come along for a brandy and champagne cocktail and watch my horse run

[Tanlic]

I’ve gotta move to Thailand if the books are betting to c. 85%

Assuming it’s void if he misses the meeting entirely

Just trying to make you an offer you can't refuse............they already said he goes for the Ballymore

[Tanlic]

I owe someone an apology..My Mate Mozzie was not meant to run in the Rossington I got mixed up with Tommy Oscar who goes for the Trial on the same day.

Which brings me to another point.

I know Paul Townsend saud Dysart Dynamao jumped well but I thought he looked a bit deliberate which could be his downfall in a proper Grade 1 hurdle race.

If you get the chance go and watch Tommy Oscar at Mussleburgh to see how a natural hurdler jumps. He is low precise extremely accurate and never misses a beat. Even when he was jumping right in his previous race
Granted horses that are so precise are always in danger of hitting one so hard itwill stop them in their track
Not for one minute am I saying he has the same engine as horse like Dysart CH and Jonbo or would stand a chance in a Champion Hurdle but so far he is the prefect hurdler when it comes to getting from A to B

Constitution Hill looks more of the ultimate hurdler who has it all to me and deserves to be fav for the Supreme but Jonbon like Douvan oozes class...gawd only knows which one is best but one of them overall surely is.

[Grasshopper]

You're not comparing apples with apples, Tanlic.

Tommy's Oscar has had a dozen starts over hurdles - which have come after eight starts in Points. It's foolish to try and compare his jumping technique with that of novice hurdlers who have had less than a handful of runs over jumps, and are only just learning the game. You also need to consider the grade of race Tommy's Oscar has been running in. He has been dominating inferior horses in Class 2 events, and his jumping has never been brought under the type of pressure he would get in a higher grade of race.

[Tanlic]

Jumping technique are used everyday by trainers to decide if a horse is a hurdler or a chaser very early in their careers
and very often they will be sent chasing after only a couple of runs over hurdles because there body language says that is where they belong.
It's got nothing to do with how many races they have had if they are already fit and running well and trainers with advice from their jockeys seldom get it wrong.

You can bet your backside Dysart Dynamo who has the stamp of a chaser will be sent over the big ones next season like previous winners of the Moscow Flyer
Vautour, Douvan and Min.

[Desert Orchid]

Stag Horn has been given a new OR of 139 following his win at the weekend. This is broadly in line with what I was anticipating but it still leaves him a stone shy of an average Albert Bartlett winner.

His Flat class might get him there with a shout of being placed but there has to be a fair chance that Ireland will have one or two 150+ contenders.

[Grasshopper]

Jumping technique are used everyday by trainers to decide if a horse is a hurdler or a chaser very early in their careers
and very often they will be sent chasing after only a couple of runs over hurdles because there body language says that is where they belong.
It's got nothing to do with how many races they have had if they are already fit and running well and trainers with advice from their jockeys seldom get it wrong.

You can bet your backside Dysart Dynamo who has the stamp of a chaser will be sent over the big ones next season like previous winners of the Moscow Flyer
Vautour, Douvan and Min.

So........because Dysart Dynamo (two hurdles starts) doesn't jump as well as Tommy's Oscar (twelve hurdle/eight Point starts), you've concluded that he has no future as a hurdler and that he should be sent over fences? Not only that, you're asserting that experience counts for nothing, and that additional races over hurdles won't do anything to improve his technique?

I'm not having any of that.

Firstly, it's far too premature to be dismissing him as a poor jumper of hurdles after only two starts, and secondly, the notion that experience doesn't improve technique is a load of old hoo-ha.

Hurricane Fly lacked a bit of fluency at the start of his career, but was an outstanding jumper of hurdles (fast and efficient) by the end of it. What caused the improvement, if it wasn't experience?

And what of Buveur D'Air? Going by your measure, he too presumably had the stamp of a chaser, but he looked like an absolute pig over fences. And Champ too? He appears to be following the same sort of route as Boov did i.e. going back over hurdles after not quite convincing fully over fences. By your measure, Henderson must have got it completely wrong when first sending these horses chasing. And just to prove I'm not picking on Henderson, Big Buck's did the same thing for the Fat Man.

What Dysart Dynamo does next season is immaterial to the above assertions, given the majority of NH horses are bought to go chasing eventually. You are trying to compare his hurdling technique with a horse who is vastly more experienced, and the simple fact is it's a daft comparison to be making.

[Euronymous]

And what of Buveur D'Air? Going by your measure, he too presumably had the stamp of a chaser, but he looked like an absolute pig over fences.

That's a bit harsh imo. Buv was fast and low over his hurdles and had the same technique over fences which is always gonna lead to problems. Concertista is similar.

[Grasshopper]

That's a bit harsh imo. Buv was fast and low over his hurdles and had the same technique over fences which is always gonna lead to problems. Concertista is similar.

Fair comment...though the point I was trying to make is that it's rarely as simple as "This one will never make a hurdler and is built for fences anyway". You just can't be that dogmatic about it, and certainly not after only two hurdles runs.

[Tanlic]

Yep Absolutely Euro and Nicky once said he was so accurate he was a bit of a worry in the sense he left no room for error.

Binocular was the same from day one..In fact McCoy said he was the fastest jumper of a hurdle he ever sat on and he pinged every one of them