Ladbrokes Trophy (ex Hennessy Gold Cup) Newbury Sat Nov 27th 2021

[HawkWing]

All grand national trials rather than stepping stones for grade 1 chases.

[Desert Orchid]

All grand national trials rather than stepping stones for grade 1 chases.

For the most part, yes, but doesn't mean some won't progress through to the G1s.

Bobs Worth wasn't so long ago.
Native River even more recently.

Could Fiddlerontheroof be a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen?

(I better back the bastert now after writing that )

[HawkWing]

Yes. Easy to skip over Sizing Tennessee and de rasher counter. The other issue of course being that a greater number of viable gold cup challengers being Irish.

[Desert Orchid]

Yes. Easy to skip over Sizing Tennessee and de rasher counter.

Yes, although DRC gave 7lbs (12lbs if you ignore the claim) to The Conditional who later won the Ultima off 2lbs higher. Very smart form in and of itself. The race probably bottomed him.

Sizing Tennessee got an RPR of 166 (ran off 148, so deemed to have been 18lbs well in) but never ran again. The race probably finished him too. But he gave Elegant Escape a 10L beating and that one came out and won the Welsh National. Top handicap form. Dingo Dollar was 17L third but beaten only half that distance off a similar mark in the Grimthorpe, while Beware The Bear, 32L fourth, won at the New Year meeting before following up in the Ultima off 3lbs higher than at Newbury. Who knows what Sizing Tennessee might have done if he'd been able to race on.

[tiggers1972]

on a scale of 1-10 how do you all rate the stregth of the race?

for the purpose of clarity, let's not mix up strength and competitiveness

2 maybe, this race has often thrown up a 2nd season novice that goes on to be competitive in the Gold Cup.

With the exception of maybe 1 this year's race won't do that.

[HawkWing]

Yes, although DRC gave 7lbs (12lbs if you ignore the claim) to The Conditional who later won the Ultima off 2lbs higher. Very smart form in and of itself. The race probably bottomed him.

Sizing Tennessee got an RPR of 166 (ran off 148, so deemed to have been 18lbs well in) but never ran again. The race probably finished him too. But he gave Elegant Escape a 10L beating and that one came out and won the Welsh National. Top handicap form. Dingo Dollar was 17L third but beaten only half that distance off a similar mark in the Grimthorpe, while Beware The Bear, 32L fourth, won at the New Year meeting before following up in the Ultima off 3lbs higher than at Newbury. Who knows what Sizing Tennessee might have done if he'd been able to race on.

Sadly the chase handicapper has a lot to answer for when it comes to the state of NH racing in the UK. Treating the Hennessey as if its not the badger beers is part of the issue. In the past, the real beauty of the race was that it was the coming out party for an up-and-coming second season novice that could announce himself as a player for the King George and Gold Cup. That has stopped. They might end up in the Welsh National, (against Yala Enki and the likes), the Paddy Power or the Ultima. And if that floats your boat, that fine. There is a place for it. But it has stopped having that magic of seeing a potential superstar like a One Man or a Strong Flow or a Teeton Mill a long while back. Talking about the relative form of Dingo Dollar and Beware the Bear is proof enough.

[Desert Orchid]

It didn't throw up Gold Cup horses year after year in its heyday, just every so often, and Native River and Bobs Worth show that it can still happen. Maybe Sizing Tennessee could have run in the Gold Cup. And, as I said earlier, this year's race might yet throw up a contender.

I wouldn't be rushing to judge. It's still the best handicap chase of the year.

[HawkWing]

It didn't throw up Gold Cup horses year after year in its heyday, just every so often, and Native River and Bobs Worth show that it can still happen. Maybe Sizing Tennessee could have run in the Gold Cup. And, as I said earlier, this year's race might yet throw up a contender.

I wouldn't be rushing to judge. It's still the best handicap chase of the year.

Not sure its the best handicap chase run this week.

[tiggers1972]

Think my two against the field will be Danny Whizzbang and the Hollow Ginge.

[Grasshopper]

I like last season's Reynoldstown form, and will be looking to Remastered to recover some of my NH Chase losses from March.

Gillard knocks-off 3lbs meaning Remastered runs from an effective mark of 143, and I think that makes him a nicely-handicapped horse. Demachine would be my other one against the field.

[wilsonl]

They’re sure to go a fair clip so I want a horse with the pace to lie up but with stamina too. Like that’s not stating the obvious, but the one to tick those boxes for me is Enrillo, who’s also the experience of a big field from the Bet365.

And he’s gone well fresh in the past.

[jinnyj]

It didn't throw up Gold Cup horses year after year in its heyday, just every so often, and Native River and Bobs Worth show that it can still happen. Maybe Sizing Tennessee could have run in the Gold Cup. And, as I said earlier, this year's race might yet throw up a contender.

I wouldn't be rushing to judge. It's still the best handicap chase of the year.

We ended up being given Couldn’t Be Better who won the race in 1995 and was subsequently 3rd in a Gold Cup.

[archie]

Presumably the Irish horses arrived safely before the winds got up. The memory of Kemboy being prevented from running off 157 is a painful one.

[Tanlic]

Wow. Makes no sense

Does to Jonjo

Someone pointed out earlier that only 3 horses have won the Hennessy twice but failed to mention not too many have tried.

There's no doubt he was mega impressive last year and this is not exactly a Denman year.

Punters never gave it a thought when they were lumping onto Cloth Cap for the National but now they have deserted him in their droves.

That is what makes no sense. This is a walk in the park in comparison to the Grand National.

If he gets a soft lead gawd help those who try to catch him.

Granted the extra weight could be his undoing but he's not a small horse and it's not like he's being asked to do an Arkle and give away 30lbs plus all round.

This is a very close knit h'cap unlike some years and he has a better chance than most IMO

[Desert Orchid]

I'm keeping a very open mind about Cloth Cap. I haven't backed him and I don't know if I will but I certainly respect him and wouldn't put anyone off backing him.

Now that he is back out to 14/1 and with extra places on offer, I can't not back Cloth Cap. I got 12s boosted to 13+/1 and the seventh place. A front-running ride like last year's will make him very difficult to kick out of the frame.

I still believe it's a high-quality race but accept that it depends on one's definition of "quality". I thought the same last year but Cloth Cap took a lot of his opponents out of their comfort zone and I can see him trying to do the same. I still think one or two of the second-season chasers will hang on to the pace and run him out of it but can't be sure which ones it will be. It will be a new experience for most of them, racing at his pace.

[HawkWing]

Now that he is back out to 14/1 and with extra places on offer, I can't not back Cloth Cap. I got 12s boosted to 13+/1 and the seventh place. A front-running ride like last year's will make him very difficult to kick out of the frame.

I still believe it's a high-quality race but accept that it depends on one's definition of "quality". I thought the same last year but Cloth Cap took a lot of his opponents out of their comfort zone and I can see him trying to do the same. I still think one or two of the second-season chasers will hang on to the pace and run him out of it but can't be sure which ones it will be. It will be a new experience for most of them, racing at his pace.

I think the field is better than last year and fewer horses will be out of their comfort zone. I'd be more concerned about his wind problems than some. But he is overpriced, would see him closer to a 8/1 shot.

[Tanlic]

You can have 4,000 to 200 on the machine so I doubt if he'll start anywhere near 8/1

TBH it's such a close knit h'cap the fav is way too short and it should be double figures the field.

Paul Nichols is very confident that his will go close and probably should be fav for this.

The bookies have ceased on the chance to make Eklat De Rire a false favourite on the back of A Plus Tard's win
No way can his current price be justified


I'll stick to Cloth Cap 21/1 win and cover my bet with 2.32 to be in the first 7.

and Fiddleronthehoof ew at 9/1 on the machine

[ep1987]

Eklat de Rire is a false price (may drift after Mr Incredible got turned over), Enrilo falls short on trends and Onheropes and several others don't look well handicapped. A bit of value in Fiddlerontheroof (have it in a double with Epatante who gets 7lbs from a 4yo) I think, with the form just given a bit of a boost with Ahoy Senor winning.

[viking]

Enrilo and Fiddlerontheroof for me


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[jinnyj]

I stuck 50p ew on that at 40s......